Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Kinky Gerbil]

Am I the only one that gets the feeling that the Gov have made their minds up to just finish this all now?

everyday there is another lifting.

 

[RossyG]

Hope so. Barbers next, please. I'm sick of having hair like like Catweazle's.

 

[Hugo Rune]

You seem to be suggesting all those distinguished Scientists/experts on SAGE were telling the government what they wanted to hear to fit a supposed government no lockdown agenda rather than giving their impartial consensus analysis of the best way to deal with the Pandemic. Where is the evidence to back up this view?

You’ll probably have to wait for the public enquiry to see the proper evidence but it’s well know that Mr Johnson was totally against a lockdown and would have been asking SAGE for advice on how to fight the pandemic without going to those measures dispute WHO advice and pretty much the rest of Europe locking down first. I doubt there was any consensus from SAGE but Mr Edmund (who has thrown Mr Johnson under the bus today) was very clear that herd immunity was the way to go. This advice would have given the Government all they need to maintain their ‘scientific’ and SAGE approved approach.

Mr Johnson’s February Brexit speech was telling. On Coronavirus, he declared:

‘Humanity needs some Government somewhere that is willing at least, to make the case powerfully for freedom of exchange’
https://youtu.be/3ok23M478Fw

The implication being that closing commerce was unpalatable.

 

[Machiavelli]

I don't think we will ever have comparable figures as each country will and has defined how they count 'Covid' fatalities (and changed how they count them during the pandemic !), hence I think Total Excess Deaths is the only truly comparable figure.

I agree with you completely about Brazil and South America generally. Very concerning figures there.

Argentina doing well. They went into a full lockdown early. And they have a populist government, as has been the case for much of their democratic history since Peron.

 

[Machiavelli]

I'm not so sure .... the major variable there could well be the number of tests vs the number of cases. I really don't know but given it's something widely referred to you would think there would be some explanation. Here is the Beeb's helpful (sic) effort under a heading 'How is the R number calculated'

Using data - such as the number of people dying, admitted to hospital or testing positive for the virus - allows you to estimate how easily the virus is spreading. Generally this gives a picture of what the R number was two to three weeks ago. Regular testing of households should soon give a more timely estimate.


We all know it needs to be under 1 ... that's about the extent of my understanding

Current estimate is that it's in the range of 0.7-0.9 (last week it was 0.7-1.0) and, given this, that is why so many SAGE members have broken ranks in the last day or so to question the current easing of restrictions.

 

[Machiavelli]

The other major advantage was that we’re an Island with no land borders (except Rep Ire). Controlling access to our Country would have been relatively easy compared to others.

It must have been hugely problematic to close down land borders in Countries like France, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany & Austria.

Many many people voted Brexit to take back control of the borders. As a screaming & ranting Nigel Farage demanded borders be closed (very early on in the pandemic) to shut the Coronavirus out, the Government ignored his life saving pleas and let the virus take seed throughout the land as they pursued their initial herd immunity or ‘take it on the chin’ plan.

If we get a second spike, the Prime Minister must resign instead of waiting for the result of the public enquiry which will have the same effect.

They will do everything they can to delay starting the public inquiry, to staff it appropriately both in terms of quantity and quality of personnel, to stretch it out to delay its release, and to narrow the range of its remit.

 

[Wozza]

 

[Guinness Boy]

Next couple of weeks or so will be interesting, because from what I’ve seen people increasingly don’t give a shit about isolation and the numbers are still coming down. We’re either in mass lemming territory or winning a battle.

I say “a battle” deliberately because there is still a war on, but a mate of mine works in ICU at the RSCH and apparently only 3 people in the Covid isolation part of that today.


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[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The other major advantage was that we’re an Island with no land borders (except Rep Ire). Controlling access to our Country would have been relatively easy compared to others.

It must have been hugely problematic to close down land borders in Countries like France, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany & Austria.

Many many people voted Brexit to take back control of the borders. As a screaming & ranting Nigel Farage demanded borders be closed (very early on in the pandemic) to shut the Coronavirus out, the Government ignored his life saving pleas and let the virus take seed throughout the land as they pursued their initial herd immunity or ‘take it on the chin’ plan.

If we get a second spike, the Prime Minister must resign instead of waiting for the result of the public enquiry which will have the same effect.

Yep. Farrage was spot on.

But even a broken watch is correct twice a day

Sad thing is we couldn't close the borders because we didn't know how. Brexiters don't realise that Boris isn't pro Brexit to keep the cheap labour (sorry, dirty muslims) out. He's pro-Brexit so we can take back control (of those anti capital 'workers rights' rules that have been 'imposed' by the EU; plus it's a cracking vote winner; Droopy and pals love it and think a light fantastic shines from Boris' arse). Sad really. Unless you've paid your mortgage and have money in the bank you may well be ****ed.

 

[The Wizard]

View attachment 124320

Ridiculous picture quite frankly.

’Dr Chris Smith, clinical lecturer in virology at the University of Cambridge, previously told the BBC the chances of Covid-19 transmission outside were "vanishingly small" because "the amount of dilution from fresh air is so high".’

That’s just a quote from one virologist, google it and you’ll see many other experts say similar.

Going outside is so important to people’s mental well being and vitamin D levels have high correlation to infection rates, this in addition the fact in the vast majority the people at the beach are still not sitting on top of each other it’s a very low risk environment.

There is no evidence a second wave even exists, nowhere in the world. Beaches are packed all across Europe because of the strong evidence on the transmission outdoors. Please don’t live in fear of the outdoors.

 

[blue-shifted]

They will do everything they can to delay starting the public inquiry, to staff it appropriately both in terms of quantity and quality of personnel, to stretch it out to delay its release, and to narrow the range of its remit.

Happy to bet with anyone they will string it out until after the next election

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

Ridiculous picture quite frankly.

’Dr Chris Smith, clinical lecturer in virology at the University of Cambridge, previously told the BBC the chances of Covid-19 transmission outside were "vanishingly small" because "the amount of dilution from fresh air is so high".’

That’s just a quote from one virologist, google it and you’ll see many other experts say similar.

Going outside is so important to people’s mental well being and vitamin D levels have high correlation to infection rates, this in addition the fact in the vast majority the people at the beach are still not sitting on top of each other it’s a very low risk environment.

There is no evidence a second wave even exists, nowhere in the world. Beaches are packed all across Europe because of the strong evidence on the transmission outdoors. Please don’t live in fear of the outdoors.

On this one I agree with you.

I don’t think we’ll get a strong second wave within the next 3 months- possibly a minor one, but nothing like some are fearful of.

 

[The Wizard]

On this one I agree with you.

I don’t think we’ll get a strong second wave within the next 3 months- possibly a minor one, but nothing like some are fearful of.

Indeed, my fear is the winter second wave, but hopefully by then we have a vaccine or proven effective treatment. I do understand why people are cautious and rightly so, but pictures like that are so misleading, people going to the beach isn’t going to cause a second wave.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

Indeed, my fear is the winter second wave, but hopefully by then we have a vaccine or proven effective treatment. I do understand why people are cautious and rightly so, but pictures like that are so misleading, people going to the beach isn’t going to cause a second wave.

Yep. I think we’ve been very fortune with the weather since lockdown started. If we’d had a rainy and miserable Spring, then many of those people who are inclined to flock to the beach may well have ended up inside friend’s or family’s houses instead.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Agree with a lot of the above. I’ll be going for a run along Hove seafront soon. On Thursday I have to take a train and tube to an office in a London where our lease has run out and pack some equipment. I think I’ve had the virus and I’m still much more worried about Thursday than my run - and the same would be true if I was to sit on the beach for a while after running, which I might.


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[Chicken Run]

Agree with a lot of the above. I’ll be going for a run along Hove seafront soon. On Thursday I have to take a train and tube to an office in a London where our lease has run out and pack some equipment. I think I’ve had the virus and I’m still much more worried about Thursday than my run - and the same would be true if I was to sit on the beach for a while after running, which I might.


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You’ll be fine on the train and why not take a London cab instead of tube?

Edit, if you’ve had the virus you should be fine no?

 

[Billy the Fish]

Indeed, my fear is the winter second wave, but hopefully by then we have a vaccine or proven effective treatment. I do understand why people are cautious and rightly so, but pictures like that are so misleading, people going to the beach isn’t going to cause a second wave.

Assuming it does turn up again in the winter that's even more reason for people to get outside now while the weather is good and the risk is lower. The longer people go without social contract the harder it is to keep it up. If we get to a long period of bad weather between June and September people will just meet up indoors where the risk is higher.

Go outside, see your family and friends, stay 2m apart, wash your hands a lot.

 

[The Wizard]

Looking at pictures from across London if there is a second wave - the protests going on with people not observing distancing could very well be the cause, terrible pictures.

I know it’s the mail... but these pictures! WTF!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...chanting-breathe-gather-Trafalgar-Square.html

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

From afar it does have the look of a ‘super spreader’ event.

I’m sure there were many trying to social distance while there so hopefully not. That and the fact it was all outdoors should help.

 

[oldboyroy]

If there was going to be a 2nd wave it would have happened right now. It hasn't and obviously there will be occasional local spikes but nothing to be concerned about lockdown being reintroduced.