Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Gwylan]

I'm no fan of Macron but this is what a real leader sounds like: completely decisive in the attempt to limit the spread of the virus but with a set of measures to mitigate the effect on individuals and businesses. It's a stark contrast to the bumbling fool that we've got in charge, one who can't take any decisive actions to fight against the disease or help the population

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEV6BHQaTnw&feature=youtu.be

 

[Bozza]

Very interesting twitter thread here that goes into more detail of the Imperial College report and the shift in tactics...

[tweet]1239619001522761728[/tweet]

Some snippets from those who can't be arsed to look...

- "We will be in quite different world for year or more. There is no end to major measures until we get vaccine."
- "We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that. "
- Best guess 35-50k people currently infected.
- "Closing schools would have some effect at reducing transmission. Closing schools on its own will have a significant effect on healthcare capacity."
- "The aim now is not to slow the rate of growth of cases, but put the epidemic in reverse. Hopefully there will be tens of thousands of deaths. Maybe just a few thousand."
- "The only exit strategy is really vaccination or other forms of innovative technology."

 

[Notters]

I have these symptoms too but my temperature is staying well in the normal zone. No real cough to speak of yet either.

Same here for about a week now. Think it's probably something else but who knows?

 

[Wozza]

The UK Only Realised "In The Last Few Days" That Its Coronavirus Strategy Would "Likely Result In Hundreds of Thousands of Deaths":

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths

Essential reading that. And the extract Bozza posted. And the stuff from The Times journo I mentioned.

All the info sourced from the experts in the field at Imperial College, who held a press conference this evening.

They have been advising Cobra - and have blatantly been shocked by what's going on in Italy over the past week or so.

And here's a fascinating graph from them. Note the red line: NHS ICU capacity.



See also...

 

[Hugo Rune]

Coronavirus / Covid-19

Same here for about a week now. Think it's probably something else but who knows?

Strange isn’t it. My peak flow is down to about 500 but isn’t getting any worse. Upping the steroids to 6 puffs a day tomorrow so will hopefully see some improvement.

 

[atomised]

Essential reading that. And the extract Bozza posted. And the stuff from The Times journo I mentioned.

All the info sourced from the experts in the field at Imperial College, who held a press conference this evening.

They have been advising Cobra - and have blatantly been shocked by what's going on in Italy over the past week or so.

And here's a fascinating graph from them. Note the red line: NHS ICU capacity.

View attachment 121096

So.what do.the different alternatives mean or if easier which is the option of least strain on the NHS

 

[Triggaaar]

- "We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that. "

I do find it odd that they took so long to realise that. I thought it was immediately obvious.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Anyone spouting this line or various types of "its just flu" needs to sort their head out.

Non-peer reviewed data from the Chinese Acadamy suggests an R0 rate of infection as roughly 3.3 to 4.7 with a 95% confidence interval, or 4.08. 2.5 is considered a pandemic.

Also a fatality rate similar to SARS at 6.5%.

There is a lot of competing data atm and i'm trying to stay on top of it. The rate of complications is roughly 20%, that is those needing hospital treatment, this will over whelm countries with poor health services and/or poor organisation. This could be a disaster for africa which has revealed about 20 cases across 4 countries in the last 24 hours.

The only way to stop it is close boarders and quarantine people coming through, this is only feasable in homogonous countries which have lower levels of transit.

Countries are endulging in pacifying their populaces like spraying passangers with water in Indonesia or promoting homopathy as a cure in India, or straight up denial like the UK.

havn't watched this yet, but this chap looks clued up imo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kuRJD8ZxDLk



This needs updating.
https://wuflu.live/

And the 2020 Jeff Goldblum award for correctly identifying ‘the best course of action to help prevent an impending disaster only to see the government do the opposite’ goes to [MENTION=38062]Soylent Blue[/MENTION]

This post from a month and a half ago is truly prophetic.

Many congratulations.

 

[Wozza]

So.what do.the different alternatives mean or if easier which is the option of least strain on the NHS

Not an expert so don't really want to give an analysis/opinion.

I'll stick to merely providing links and facts which I think other NSC users will be interested in.

But worth reading Bozza and Kev's posts/links above.

Edit: Added additional, comforting graph from same source which shows potential benefits of social distancing.

 

[Justice]

I'm no fan of Macron but this is what a real leader sounds like: completely decisive in the attempt to limit the spread of the virus but with a set of measures to mitigate the effect on individuals and businesses. It's a stark contrast to the bumbling fool that we've got in charge, one who can't take any decisive actions to fight against the disease or help the population

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEV6BHQaTnw&feature=youtu.be

The idiot is well out of his depth, can’t make a decision to save himself, not a man to lead us into battle.

 

[kevo]

I do find it odd that they took so long to realise that. I thought it was immediately obvious.

These people are meant to be the experts. They are meant to protect us. They have failed abysmally.

 

[beorhthelm]

I do find it odd that they took so long to realise that. I thought it was immediately obvious.

because they deal with evidence, summary and assumption isnt sufficient. and the upshot is, according to the graph, its not going to make much difference anyway.

 

[BN41Albion]

I am concerned as my partner is a teacher and is pregnant... and still having to work.

Is she still going in? Pregnant teachers I know have told heads they're not going in.

 

[kevo]

Same here, I had a bit of a dry cough a few days ago, but haven’t had a fever at all. My temperature has been a little higher than usual, but still in the normal range. I’m really hoping this is corona, as if it is it looks like I’ve got away lightly.

Same here. Slight cough/sneezing over last few days. Some tightness in chest and had a bit of temperature last night, but otherwise feel generally fine. Seeing as this useless govt can't even arrange to test us, who knows?

 

[Albion Dan]

The UK Only Realised "In The Last Few Days" That Its Coronavirus Strategy Would "Likely Result In Hundreds of Thousands of Deaths":

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths

Oh dear it looks like Boris has had an f’in mare over this one. I’m astounded the schools remain open in complete contradiction to his other advice and he’s hung the hospitality industry out to die by not enforcing their closure but telling everyone to avoid them. Shockingly poor leadership. The governments approach has actually tipped me into concerned territory from relatively confident when I thought the tough decisions would be made last week. We’ll measure the cost soon I guess.

 

[PILTDOWN MAN]

Is she still going in? Pregnant teachers I know have told heads they're not going in.

Sounds to me from here she has a cough.

 

[BN41Albion]

Oh dear it looks like Boris has had an f’in mare over this one. I’m astounded the schools remain open in complete contradiction to his other advice and he’s hung the hospitality industry out to die by not enforcing their closure but telling everyone to avoid them. Shockingly poor leadership. The governments approach has actually tipped me into concerned territory from relatively confident when I thought the tough decisions would be made last week. We’ll measure the cost soon I guess.

I noticed too that in all the reports I watched tonight there was barely any mention of teachers and their welfare in having to do the exact opposite of government advice, and especially pregnant teachers. Disgraceful, imo.

 

[beorhthelm]

Oh dear it looks like Boris has had an f’in mare over this one. I’m astounded the schools remain open in complete contradiction to his other advice and he’s hung the hospitality industry out to die by not enforcing their closure but telling everyone to avoid them. Shockingly poor leadership. The governments approach has actually tipped me into concerned territory from relatively confident when I thought the tough decisions would be made last week. We’ll measure the cost soon I guess.

you think they will do better under closure then?

 

[kevo]

I bet Boris secretly wishes he'd never won the election now. It's really exposing how hopeless he is.

 

[Albion Dan]

you think they will do better under closure then?

Yes because their insurance policies kick in. By not enforcing closure they are forced to remain unable to claim against these.