Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[loz]

Could be to do with the new so called Indian strain, SAGE scientists already warning the government they should now postpone the next unlocking on Monday.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

I think there would be civil unrest if that happens. With about 1000 people in hospital and 15 odd unfortunately dying per day, The NHS is not busy or in need of saving from COVID ,so let’s save the few million jobs in hospitality.

3 weeks to flatten the curve they said...there are less than 1 COVID patients in each NHS hospital.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Could be to do with the new so called Indian strain, SAGE scientists already warning the government they should now postpone the next unlocking on Monday.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

Mainly pushed by Independent sage.

 

[crodonilson]

I think there would be civil unrest if that happens. With about 1000 people in hospital and 15 odd unfortunately dying per day, The NHS is not busy or in need of saving from COVID ,so let’s save the few million jobs in hospitality.

3 weeks to flatten the curve they said...there are less than 1 COVID patients in each NHS hospital.

I think the concern is not now, but if cases of the Indian variant are doubling every week then they can very quickly spiral out of control and then the pressure on the NHS might ramp up again. I doubt the government will listen at the moment to these calls but watch this space over the coming weeks if the doubling rate continues for this variant.

 

[Driver8]

Could be to do with the new so called Indian strain, SAGE scientists already warning the government they should now postpone the next unlocking on Monday.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

Is it me or is every man and his dog a member of SAGE?

 

[crodonilson]

Is it me or is every man and his dog a member of SAGE?

ir Patrick Vallance FMedSci FRS Government Chief Scientific Adviser
Professor Chris Whitty CB FMedSci Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Adviser, Department of Health and Social Care
Professor Rebecca Allen University of Oxford
Professor John Aston Chief Scientific Adviser, Home Office
Professor Charles Bangham Imperial College London
Professor Wendy Barclay FMedSci Imperial College London
Professor Jonathan Benger UWE Bristol
Fliss Bennee Welsh Government
Mr Allan Bennett Public Health England
Professor Phil Blythe Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for Transport
Professor Chris Bonnell London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Professor Sir Ian Boyd FRSE University of St Andrews
Professor Peter Bruce University of Oxford
Caroline Cake HDR-UK
Professor Andrew Curran Chief Scientific Adviser, Health and Safety Executive
Professor Paul Cosford Public Health England
Dr Gavin Dabrera Public Health England
Professor Sir Ian Diamond FRSE FBA National Statistician, Office for National Statistics
Professor Yvonne Doyle CB Medical Director, Public Health England
Professor Deborah Dunn-Walters University of Surrey
Professor John Edmunds OBE FMedSci London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Professor Sir Jeremy Farrar FMedSci FRS Director, Wellcome Trust
Professor Michael Ferguson University of Dundee
Professor Neil Ferguson OBE FMedSci Imperial College London
Professor Kevin Fenton Public Health England
Dr Aidan Fowler FRCS National Health Service England
Professor Julia Gog University of Cambridge
Professor Robin Grimes Chief Scientific Adviser, Ministry of Defence
Dr Ian Hall University of Manchester
Dr David Halpern Behavioural Insights Team, Cabinet Office
Dido Harding NHS Test and Trace Executive Chair
Dr Jenny Harries OBE Deputy Chief Medical Officer
Dr Demis Hassabis FRS Personal capacity as a data scientist
Professor Andrew Hayward University College London
Professor Gideon Henderson Chief Scientific Adviser, Defra
Professor Peter Horby University of Oxford
Professor Anne Johnson University College London
Dr Indra Joshi NHSx
Professor Kamlesh Khunti University of Leicester
Dr Ben Killingley UCLH
Professor David Lalloo Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine
Professor Janet Lord University of Birmingham
Professor Dame Theresa Marteau FMedSci University of Cambridge
Professor Dame Angela McLean FRS Chief Scientific Adviser, Ministry of Defence
Dr Jim McMenamin Health Protection Scotland
Dr Zhirvago The Gambia
Professor Graham Medley London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Dr Laura Merson University of Oxford
Professor Susan Michie FAcSS FMedSci University College London
Professor Christine Middlemiss Chief Veterinary Officer
Professor Andrew Morris FMedSci FRSE University of Edinburgh
Professor Paul Moss University of Birmingham
Professor Carole Mundell Chief Scientific Adviser, Foreign and Commonwealth Office
Professor Cath Noakes University of Leeds
Dr Rob Orford Welsh Government
Professor Michael Parker University of Oxford
Professor Sharon Peacock FMedSci Public Health England
Professor Alan Penn Chief Scientific Adviser, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government
Dr Pasi Penttinen European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
Dr Neil Fox Chief of Popular Music
Professor Guy Poppy Chief Scientific Adviser, Food Standards Agency
Professor Steve Powis FRCP National Health Service England
Dr Mike Prentice National Health Service England
Mr Osama Rahman Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for Education
Professor Venki Ramakrishnan PRS Ex Officio as Chair of DELVE, convened by the Royal Society
Professor Andrew Rambaut FRSE University of Edinburgh
Professor Tom Rodden Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport
Professor Brooke Rogers OBE Kings College London
Dr Cathy Roth Department for International Development
David Seymour HDR-UK
Professor Sheila Rowan MBE FRS FRSE Chief Scientific Adviser, Scotland
Alaster Smith Department for Education
Professor Iyiola Solanke University of Leeds
Dr Nicola Steedman Scottish Government
Dr James Rubin Kings College London
Professor Harry Rutter University of Bath
Professor Bernard Chumley Rotherham Polytechnic
Professor Calum Semple University of Liverpool
Dr Mike Short CBE Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for International Trade
Dr Gregor Smith Scottish Government Chief Medical Officer
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS University of Cambridge
Professor Jonathan Van Tam MBE Deputy Chief Medical Officer
Professor Russell Viner PRCPCH University College London
Professor Charlotte Watts CMG FMedSci Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for International Development
Dr Rhoswyn Walker HDR-UK
Professor Sir Mark Walport FRCP FMedSci FRS UK Research and Innovation
Professor Mark Wilcox University of Leeds
Professor Lucy Yardley FAcSS University of Bristol and University of Southampton
Professor Ian Young Northern Ireland Executive
Professor Maria Zambon FMedSci Public Health England

 

[dsr-burnley]

Could be to do with the new so called Indian strain, SAGE scientists already warning the government they should now postpone the next unlocking on Monday.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

Isn't there something a bit creepy about having a picture of a character with a big smile on his face, while doing your best to spread the worst news imaginable?

We have an illness now which appears to be less likely than flu to kill people. The measures proposed to stop it are WAY over the top.

 

[Driver8]

ir Patrick Vallance FMedSci FRSGovernment Chief Scientific Adviser
Professor Chris Whitty CB FMedSciChief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Adviser, Department of Health and Social Care
Professor Rebecca AllenUniversity of Oxford
Professor John AstonChief Scientific Adviser, Home Office
Professor Charles BanghamImperial College London
Professor Wendy Barclay FMedSciImperial College London
Professor Jonathan BengerUWE Bristol
Fliss BenneeWelsh Government
Mr Allan BennettPublic Health England
Professor Phil BlytheChief Scientific Adviser, Department for Transport
Professor Chris BonnellLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Professor Sir Ian Boyd FRSEUniversity of St Andrews
Professor Peter BruceUniversity of Oxford
Caroline CakeHDR-UK
Professor Andrew CurranChief Scientific Adviser, Health and Safety Executive
Professor Paul CosfordPublic Health England
Dr Gavin DabreraPublic Health England
Professor Sir Ian Diamond FRSE FBANational Statistician, Office for National Statistics
Professor Yvonne Doyle CBMedical Director, Public Health England
Professor Deborah Dunn-WaltersUniversity of Surrey
Professor John Edmunds OBE FMedSciLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Professor Sir Jeremy Farrar FMedSci FRSDirector, Wellcome Trust
Professor Michael FergusonUniversity of Dundee
Professor Neil Ferguson OBE FMedSciImperial College London
Professor Kevin FentonPublic Health England
Dr Aidan Fowler FRCSNational Health Service England
Professor Julia GogUniversity of Cambridge
Professor Robin GrimesChief Scientific Adviser, Ministry of Defence
Dr Ian HallUniversity of Manchester
Dr David HalpernBehavioural Insights Team, Cabinet Office
Dido HardingNHS Test and Trace Executive Chair
Dr Jenny Harries OBEDeputy Chief Medical Officer
Dr Demis Hassabis FRSPersonal capacity as a data scientist
Professor Andrew HaywardUniversity College London
Professor Gideon HendersonChief Scientific Adviser, Defra
Professor Peter HorbyUniversity of Oxford
Professor Anne JohnsonUniversity College London
Dr Indra JoshiNHSx
Professor Kamlesh KhuntiUniversity of Leicester
Dr Ben KillingleyUCLH
Professor David LallooLiverpool School of Tropical Medicine
Professor Janet LordUniversity of Birmingham
Professor Dame Theresa Marteau FMedSciUniversity of Cambridge
Professor Dame Angela McLean FRSChief Scientific Adviser, Ministry of Defence
Dr Jim McMenaminHealth Protection Scotland
Dr Zhirvago The Gambia
Professor Graham MedleyLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Dr Laura MersonUniversity of Oxford
Professor Susan Michie FAcSS FMedSciUniversity College London
Professor Christine MiddlemissChief Veterinary Officer
Professor Andrew Morris FMedSci FRSEUniversity of Edinburgh
Professor Paul MossUniversity of Birmingham
Professor Carole MundellChief Scientific Adviser, Foreign and Commonwealth Office
Professor Cath NoakesUniversity of Leeds
Dr Rob OrfordWelsh Government
Professor Michael ParkerUniversity of Oxford
Professor Sharon Peacock FMedSciPublic Health England
Professor Alan PennChief Scientific Adviser, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government
Dr Pasi PenttinenEuropean Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
Dr Neil Fox Chief of Popular Music
Professor Guy PoppyChief Scientific Adviser, Food Standards Agency
Professor Steve Powis FRCPNational Health Service England
Dr Mike PrenticeNational Health Service England
Mr Osama RahmanChief Scientific Adviser, Department for Education
Professor Venki Ramakrishnan PRSEx Officio as Chair of DELVE, convened by the Royal Society
Professor Andrew Rambaut FRSEUniversity of Edinburgh
Professor Tom RoddenChief Scientific Adviser, Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport
Professor Brooke Rogers OBEKings College London
Dr Cathy RothDepartment for International Development
David SeymourHDR-UK
Professor Sheila Rowan MBE FRS FRSEChief Scientific Adviser, Scotland
Alaster SmithDepartment for Education
Professor Iyiola SolankeUniversity of Leeds
Dr Nicola SteedmanScottish Government
Dr James RubinKings College London
Professor Harry RutterUniversity of Bath
Professor Bernard Chumley Rotherham Polytechnic
Professor Calum SempleUniversity of Liverpool
Dr Mike Short CBEChief Scientific Adviser, Department for International Trade
Dr Gregor SmithScottish Government Chief Medical Officer
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRSUniversity of Cambridge
Professor Jonathan Van Tam MBEDeputy Chief Medical Officer
Professor Russell Viner PRCPCHUniversity College London
Professor Charlotte Watts CMG FMedSciChief Scientific Adviser, Department for International Development
Dr Rhoswyn WalkerHDR-UK
Professor Sir Mark Walport FRCP FMedSci FRSUK Research and Innovation
Professor Mark WilcoxUniversity of Leeds
Professor Lucy Yardley FAcSSUniversity of Bristol and University of Southampton
Professor Ian YoungNorthern Ireland Executive
Professor Maria Zambon FMedSciPublic Health England

That’s a yes then [emoji23].

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Isn't there something a bit creepy about having a picture of a character with a big smile on his face, while doing your best to spread the worst news imaginable?

We have an illness now which appears to be less likely than flu to kill people. The measures proposed to stop it are WAY over the top.

Haven’t they said the vaccine works fine with this one?

 

[atomised]

I think the concern is not now, but if cases of the Indian variant are doubling every week then they can very quickly spiral out of control and then the pressure on the NHS might ramp up again. I doubt the government will listen at the moment to these calls but watch this space over the coming weeks if the doubling rate continues for this variant.

Good job there's early signs that the rate may be slowing then, but I'm sure that's awful news for you in your doom laden dungeon

 

[Poojah]

Haven’t they said the vaccine works fine with this one?

From what I’ve read they remain very effective against symptomatic and serious disease, but potentially (though not definitely) against infection - I think that basically means they don’t quite know yet.

Even if vaccines are compromised slightly in terms of infection, look at it this way. The Kent strain first appeared in September but still took a good couple of months to properly get going in an economically relaxed, totally unvaccinated society. In a couple of months time from now something like 90% of adults will have been vaccinated at least to a degree.

We may well see a moderate wave of cases and possibly a bubble of hospitalisations, but in my opinion nothing like we’ve seen in previous waves and certainly no more than a trickle of deaths (tragic though each one will be). For the first time the majority scientific opinion appears to be one of cautious optimism - still room for a little bump in the road but nothing more than that. All in my opinion of course.

 

[beorhthelm]

Haven’t they said the vaccine works fine with this one?

yes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.617#Vaccine_efficacy

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

From what I’ve read they remain very effective against symptomatic and serious disease, but potentially (though not definitely) against infection - I think that basically means they don’t quite know yet.

Even if vaccines are compromised slightly in terms of infection, look at it this way. The Kent strain first appeared in September but still took a good couple of months to properly get going in an economically relaxed, totally unvaccinated society. In a couple of months time from now something like 90% of adults will have been vaccinated at least to a degree.

We may well see a moderate wave of cases and possibly a bubble of hospitalisations, but in my opinion nothing like we’ve seen in previous waves and certainly no more than a trickle of deaths (tragic though each one will be). For the first time the majority scientific opinion appears to be one of cautious optimism - still room for a little bump in the road but nothing more than that. All in my opinion of course.

yes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_B.1.617#Vaccine_efficacy

Thanks to both.

I thought as much

It just looks more like a couple of people have said we should stop opening up and that the media have picked up on.

 

[nicko31]

Sage is meeting today, are in position we are passing all 4 test to move to stage 3 of easing??



Evidence is B.1.617.2 is more transmissible, gaining dominance and cases in some areas (notably Bolton where it represents 70% of cases now)

We'd be wise to delay things a couple of weeks and pause for breath until we know more, why risk everything when we've still circa 30m unvaccinated?

One other thing. Can anyone explain to me the relational behind face cover rules changing in schools from Monday?

 

[beorhthelm]

One other thing. Can anyone explain to me the relational behind face cover rules changing in schools from Monday?

the rationale is to signal returning to normal. it was never a significant effect on spread, and only done for some reassurance in first place.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Sage is meeting today, are in position we are passing all 4 test to move to stage 3 of easing??

View attachment 136688

Evidence is B.1.617.2 is more transmissible, gaining dominance and cases in some areas (notably Bolton where it represents 70% of cases now)

We'd be wise to delay things a couple of weeks and pause for breath until we know more, why risk everything when we've still circa 30m unvaccinated?

One other thing. Can anyone explain to me the relational behind face cover rules changing in schools from Monday?

This was the same when we had the go ahead Monday, nothings changed.

 

[nicko31]

the rationale is to signal returning to normal. it was never a significant effect on spread, and only done for some reassurance in first place.

Its saver with them than without and it costs nothing. No kids have been vaccinated yet

Kids in my locality still being sent home including one of mine (5th time in 6 months), we're not out of the woods yet. Just unnecessary...

 

[dsr-burnley]

Its saver with them than without and it costs nothing. No kids have been vaccinated yet

Kids in my locality still being sent home including one of mine (5th time in 6 months), we're not out of the woods yet. Just unnecessary...

1. Where is the evidence that it is safer for children to wear a mask? The current view is that it makes no difference at all.

2. When you say "it costs nothing", are you saying that if children have to wear masks all day long it has absolutely no effect on their life, their education, and their ability to communicate (even the deaf ones), or are you just talking about money?

 

[nicko31]

1. Where is the evidence that it is safer for children to wear a mask? The current view is that it makes no difference at all.

2. When you say "it costs nothing", are you saying that if children have to wear masks all day long it has absolutely no effect on their life, their education, and their ability to communicate (even the deaf ones), or are you just talking about money?

Well evidence suggests its safer with than without, take a look at what they do in Asia.

Masks when moving round school or classroom, not when stationary at the desk or outside.

Sends a signal the pandemic is over, the last thing we want now is complacency.

 

[blue-shifted]

Sage is meeting today, are in position we are passing all 4 test to move to stage 3 of easing??

View attachment 136688

Evidence is B.1.617.2 is more transmissible, gaining dominance and cases in some areas (notably Bolton where it represents 70% of cases now)

We'd be wise to delay things a couple of weeks and pause for breath until we know more, why risk everything when we've still circa 30m unvaccinated?

One other thing. Can anyone explain to me the relational behind face cover rules changing in schools from Monday?

Understand the concern.

But I think open up on this phase, delay the next one if needed.

 

[crodonilson]

Isn't there something a bit creepy about having a picture of a character with a big smile on his face, while doing your best to spread the worst news imaginable?

We have an illness now which appears to be less likely than flu to kill people. The measures proposed to stop it are WAY over the top.

I was merely answering someones question as to why it is likely the infection rate is no longer declining, and in some areas is quite quickly increasing.

SAGE have called an emergency meeting today to discuss the Indian variant so there are obviously some concerns amongst the people who know more about this than anyone else.