Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Kinky Gerbil]

I take it the Health Minister came up with this....?

Hahahaha. Yes

 

[dazzer6666]

Time to hit Mcdonalds

Darren McCaffrey [MENTION=4487]darren[/MENTION]Euronews
#CoronaVirusUpdate Flag of Belgium

Obese people (those with a BMI above 30) aged 45-64 will be added to list of people given priority for a #coronavirus vaccine from March in Belgium

They will be offered one, alongside those with underlying conditions and people over 65 years old

Was on a call with some mates yesterday and we were wondering if the next vacc sites will be set up in Greggs.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

USA cases have dropped 40 percent in a couple of weeks

That’s good news

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Sage are pushing for schools to go back earlier, Johnson holding firm.

There has been a shift from sage in recent days I think

 

[loz]

Sage are pushing for schools to go back earlier, Johnson holding firm.

There has been a shift from sage in recent days I think

Yes I have noticed that, Just wondering if they are now starting to see the long term damage to health this lockdown is causing, and mainly to people under 55 who in the most cases would not be effected by Covid.

 

[beorhthelm]

Sage are pushing for schools to go back earlier, Johnson holding firm.

There has been a shift from sage in recent days I think

some of the vaccine study data will be in their thinking, like evidence of 0 hospitalisations, high efficacy from one jab.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

some of the vaccine study data will be in their thinking, like evidence of 0 hospitalisations, high efficacy from one jab.

Johnson is in a no win situation here, he opens up and if cases go up again the same people will hammer him

What will be interesting is when we dont really care about positive numbers and just illness.

 

[crodonilson]

Still think we need to proceed with a degree of caution. All of the good news about the falling of infection rates, hospitalisations and deaths is due to the lockdown. When scholls go back this will push the R rate back toward 1 and any other further lifting of measures in the near future with daily infections in the many thousands it's a forbiddingly high bases for the virus to take off again. Jeremy Hunt told the Guardian we should wait until cases are in the hundreds before lifting lockdown measures and I tend to agree with him. Good news with that though is with the R rate currently 0.7/0.8 if the vaccine is as good as we hope in eliminating transmission we can drive that R rate even lower whilst in lockdown and potentially get to those sort of cases numbers by the first week in May.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Boris Johnson is facing a battle royale on lockdown today as Tories demands all curbs are dropped in May when over-50s are vaccinated - but SAGE modelling suggested even a slower easing could mean 130,000 more deaths.

The PM is under renewed pressure to step up the reopening of the country after the government accidentally revealed that the top nine groups - around 32million people - should be covered by the spring.

Ministers had previously refused to confirm a timetable, but the Cabinet Office cited it as a reason elections in England can take place on May 6.



130,000 more deaths with the vaccine.... how - given we havent reached that figure now?

 

[dsr-burnley]

130,000 more deaths with the vaccine.... how - given we havent reached that figure now?

I think they have combined it with an asteroid hitting the earth at the point when 130,000 people had had a positive test in the last 28 days.

 

[beorhthelm]

Boris Johnson is facing a battle royale on lockdown today as Tories demands all curbs are dropped in May when over-50s are vaccinated - but SAGE modelling suggested even a slower easing could mean 130,000 more deaths.

The PM is under renewed pressure to step up the reopening of the country after the government accidentally revealed that the top nine groups - around 32million people - should be covered by the spring.

Ministers had previously refused to confirm a timetable, but the Cabinet Office cited it as a reason elections in England can take place on May 6.



130,000 more deaths with the vaccine.... how - given we havent reached that figure now?

need to see the source, likely its a cumulative number including the current number. if the source is Daily Mail it could just be plucked out the air to meet a deadline and a create a headline.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

need to see the source, likely its a cumulative number including the current number. if the source is Daily Mail it could just be plucked out the air to meet a deadline and a create a headline.

This one is the mail and not telegraph


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ry-demands-drop-curbs-amid-SAGE-warnings.html

Link should be in there to sage minutes


The government is currently maintaining around that level. But the report added: 'This would still lead to an additional 130,800 (103,200 - 167,600) deaths between now and June 2022.'

The Imperial team suggested that its findings meant 'a more cautious approach to gradually lifting (lockdown measures) may need to be considered than the ones modelled in this report.'

But Professor Lockdown's modelling appears to be based on the assumption that about 50,000 Covid patients would be in hospital by mid-February, before dropping towards the end of the month. In reality, the figures never exceeded 40,000 and have now dropped to about 30,000 already.

Another equally-pessimistic study submitted to SAGE warned curbs will need to be in place until at least September or there could be a 'significant' rebound in infections, hospitalisations and deaths.

The undated modelling, done by various SAGE epidemiologists from universities around the country, said the highly-transmissible Kent variant would tear through the unvaccinated population over summer if the lockdown was lifted completely.

 

[darkwolf666]

I think they have combined it with an asteroid hitting the earth at the point when 130,000 people had had a positive test in the last 28 days.

I’ve not agreed with much you have written about Covid, but that is funny!

 

[dsr-burnley]

The undated modelling, done by various SAGE epidemiologists from universities around the country, said the highly-transmissible Kent variant would tear through the unvaccinated population over summer if the lockdown was lifted completely.

I suppose they are basing that on the way last year it barely touched anyone over the summer and so this year it will behave entirely differently?

I don't get how 130,000 people will die between now and July 2022 even if all restrictions are lifted when the over 50's are vaccinated.

According to these numbers, 32m are vulnerable and 22m are not. I think we can ignore children for this purpose.

So if we assume 90% take up of vaccinations + immune for previous infection, we have got 3.2m unvaccinated in the vulnerable group, death rate say 5% would be 160,000. And if we assume none of the 22m are vaccinated, death rate say 0.1% would be 22,000. In other words, the 130,000 total is based on the idea that this virus spreads rampantly to at least two thirds of the remaining population in 15 months.

Is that realistic?

 

[crodonilson]

It seems details are starting to leak about the easing of Lockdown. Pubs open from late April with no alcohol and no household mixing, and then from May with limited mixing outdoors only, all seems feasible if the current rate of infections continue to drop but who will police this and what happens when inevitably this takes the R rate back above 1??

 

[dsr-burnley]

It seems details are starting to leak about the easing of Lockdown. Pubs open from late April with no alcohol and no household mixing, and then from May with limited mixing outdoors only, all seems feasible if the current rate of infections continue to drop but who will police this and what happens when inevitably this takes the R rate back above 1??

The R rate will be above 1 for approximately half of the next thousand years, unless the unlikely happens and the disease is wiped out. As long as we have almost all been vaccinated, then there should be few deaths and nothing will happen when the R rate goes above 1. If hospitalisations and deaths do go through the roof, then they will reconsider.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I suppose they are basing that on the way last year it barely touched anyone over the summer and so this year it will behave entirely differently?

I don't get how 130,000 people will die between now and July 2022 even if all restrictions are lifted when the over 50's are vaccinated.

According to these numbers, 32m are vulnerable and 22m are not. I think we can ignore children for this purpose.

So if we assume 90% take up of vaccinations + immune for previous infection, we have got 3.2m unvaccinated in the vulnerable group, death rate say 5% would be 160,000. And if we assume none of the 22m are vaccinated, death rate say 0.1% would be 22,000. In other words, the 130,000 total is based on the idea that this virus spreads rampantly to at least two thirds of the remaining population in 15 months.

Is that realistic?

More detail

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1357819318914994186?s=20

 

[crodonilson]

The R rate will be above 1 for approximately half of the next thousand years, unless the unlikely happens and the disease is wiped out. As long as we have almost all been vaccinated, then there should be few deaths and nothing will happen when the R rate goes above 1. If hospitalisations and deaths do go through the roof, then they will reconsider.

The difference being in May this year many millions will still have no immunity to getting the disease and becoming severely ill or passing it on which lets the virus rip through again causing another wave and more pressure on the NHS. Most sage modelling still suggests we will need some measures until the vaccination process is complete and everyone has been vaccinated twice which will likely be towards the end of the year.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Question for those that know more.

Why if the South African mutation is x times more infectious why is SA seeing a large decrease with the same amount of testing in place

They have restrictions, but they are nowhere near a lockdown.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Question for those that know more.

Why if the South African mutation is x times more infectious why is SA seeing a large decrease with the same amount of testing in place

They have restrictions, but they are nowhere near a lockdown.

In The Sunday Times today:

But the key question remains: if the variant is as infectious as Matt Hancock and the UK press seem to believe, why has it not devastated the South African population before a single vaccination has even taken place?

Scientists have been puzzling over that for weeks, but Professor Alex van den Heever, of the Wits School of Governance, proffers the most plausible theory yet: the virus has already done its job. Most South Africans, he says, may have had it and developed antibodies. Officially, there have been 1.5 million cases in South Africa over the past year. Van den Heever, on the basis of exhaustive studies and a large body of evidence, reckons the true figure is at least six million and possibly as many as nine million.

Government figures show Covid-19 is responsible for 45,000 deaths. But, based on the number of recorded “excess deaths”, van den Heever says, “the Covid-19 mortality is most probably in the range of 111,227 to 133,128 — roughly a threefold to fourfold difference from the official data.”

An actuary for one of the big health insurance companies reckons it could be even more: “Working backwards from Alex’s figures and the death rate, more than 50 per cent of the adult population could have been infected.” That comes to a staggering 20 million people and raises the intriguing possibility that South Africa could become the first country in the world to reach herd immunity.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...ugs-off-infections-to-hit-the-beach-bgxqlpwx0