Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[darkwolf666]

Expert in what?

When a statistic seems so obviously wrong, it doesn't necessarily mean it is wrong, but it certainly needs further investigation before being believed.

Yes, of course, it needs further investigation by the experts of NSC before I can believe anything broadcast on the news!

I have just rewound my TV (wonders of technology), it was this gentleman who said on average 9 to 10 years of life have been lost...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Spiegelhalter

My mistake, before posting this, was obviously not checking with Karen on Facebook first...!

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Don't shoot the messenger!

I am not i am just interested how they worked it out

 

[dsr-burnley]

Yes, of course, it needs further investigation by the experts of NSC before I can believe anything broadcast on the news!

It does, actually. Even the BBC can be wrong.

The BBC have published a statistic that suggests people who have died of coronavirus had a life expectancy equal to or better than people of the same age who didn't; this is very much contrary to what has been said before. Like the German 8% AstraZeneca efficiency last night, when someone is suggesting that other experts are wrong, their opinion has to be approached with a critical mind.

 

[darkwolf666]

It does, actually. Even the BBC can be wrong.

The BBC have published a statistic that suggests people who have died of coronavirus had a life expectancy equal to or better than people of the same age who didn't; this is very much contrary to what has been said before. Like the German 8% AstraZeneca efficiency last night, when someone is suggesting that other experts are wrong, their opinion has to be approached with a critical mind.

Clearly you know better than the eminent gentleman who made the claim I quoted...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Spiegelhalter

 

[crodonilson]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55818636

A particularly grim day today, one hundred thousand lives lost, that's one hundred thousand families and friends grieving for the loss of a loved one when so many of them with better restrictions and controls shouldn't have. A grave warning from Chris Whitty too that the lockdown is barely keeping cases under control and pretty much any lifting of restrictions will push the R rate back above 1 so restrictions will need to stay for some time to come.

Also Professor Neil Ferguson confirmed if we had gone into lockdown in September as SAGE recommended and remained in lockdown until now the vast majority of the 50,000 lives lost since the beginning of November could have been saved.

 

[RossyG]

Crodo’s day job...

 

[darkwolf666]

Expert in what?

When a statistic seems so obviously wrong, it doesn't necessarily mean it is wrong, but it certainly needs further investigation before being believed.

Apparently an expert in statistics...

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55818636

A particularly grim day today, one hundred thousand lives lost, that's one hundred thousand families and friends grieving for the loss of a loved one when so many of them with better restrictions and controls shouldn't have. A grave warning from Chris Whitty too that the lockdown is barely keeping cases under control and pretty much any lifting of restrictions will push the R rate back above 1 so restrictions will need to stay for some time to come.

Also Professor Neil Ferguson confirmed if we had gone into lockdown in September as SAGE recommended and remained in lockdown until now the vast majority of the 50,000 lives lost since the beginning of November could have been saved.

Just checking, the same Ferguson that broke lockdown?

He should not be near anything nor advising anyone.

 

[crodonilson]

Just checking, the same Ferguson that broke lockdown?

He should not be near anything nor advising anyone.

I don't think he is advising anyone now (although not sure if he sits on nervetag who estimated the new south east strain increased the R rate by up to 0.7). The BBC however do seem to have made him their trusted adviser on this type of matters.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I don't think he is advising anyone now (although not sure if he sits on nervetag who estimated the new south east strain increased the R rate by up to 0.7). The BBC however do seem to have made him their trusted adviser on this type of matters.

He did the report saying the new strain was more deadly.

 

[beorhthelm]

I don't think he is advising anyone now (although not sure if he sits on nervetag who estimated the new south east strain increased the R rate by up to 0.7). The BBC however do seem to have made him their trusted adviser on this type of matters.

because he gives them a scary headline.

 

[Billy the Fish]

because he gives them a scary headline.

Yep, he's pissed off because he was hung out to dry in the media so now he just snipes from the sidelines

 

[darkwolf666]

Yep, he's pissed off because he was hung out to dry in the media so now he just snipes from the sidelines

Or to take an opposing view, because he's right...

 

[beorhthelm]

Yep, he's pissed off because he was hung out to dry in the media so now he just snipes from the sidelines

he's made a career out of it, still on some committees guiding health policy. a college who knows his work confirms it skews results and produces worst case scenarios.

 

[CHAPPERS]

produces worst case scenarios.

Best leave that to the government.

 

[Rugrat]

Patel about to announce quarantine in hotels from arrivals from South America, South Africa and Portugal.

Well the result of that will be no more flights from those places and an xfold increase in arrivals from Madrid etc

 

[crodonilson]

A chilling warning this lunchtime that there are likely to be another 50,000 deahts before the pandemic burns out even with current lockdown measures in place and if lockdown is released to early and/or too quickly that death toll could double.

 

[atomised]

Press briefing this afternoon on schools with Boris

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Or to take an opposing view, because he's right...

He may well be right, but pretty much everyone else that has looked at the data he has disagreed with his latest prediction in one way or another.

The point is, he broke lockdown before Cummings was reported to - He was pushing for it and broke it - no one should be talking to him and giving him a platform

 

[crodonilson]

Lockdown extended until at least 8th March. Small possibility some school children in some areas may begin to return after this date but unlikely given the criteria that needs to be met for this to take place.