Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[pb21]

I think there is a lab-based test that is reliable but low throughput being used at Porton Down.
It is the rapid "pregnancy" type test (although using blood not urine) that is proving difficult, not least because most of us have been infected with a coronavirus in the past and the test must be specific for this particular one.

This was something alluded to by a Government spokesman last week.

Apparently they have been antibody testing 3,500 people per week since February.

 

[Mellotron]

This was something alluded to by a Government spokesman last week.

Apparently they have been antibody testing 3,500 people per week since February.

Correct.

Has been underway, but completely understandable that they've kept it on the downlow - especially whilst still probably ascertaining the test's veracity - otherwise everyone would be up in arms demanding one.

 

[Mellotron]

This from BBC News shows how little can actually be gleaned from the daily total, and why they will likely continue to jump around and not show the true trends at points;

England reports 765 new coronavirus deaths

NHS England has recorded 765 new deaths in hospital from coronavirus.

It said that 140 of them occurred yesterday, while 568 took place between 1 April and 7 April.

The remaining 57 deaths took place in March, including two on 19 March and one on 16 March.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Good luck to her, fingers crossed...

Indeed!

 

[The Wizard]

This from BBC News shows how little can actually be gleaned from the daily total, and why they will likely continue to jump around and not show the true trends at points;

Well, that’s a revelation, I hadn’t realised that’s how they were recorded. So basically it’s just a random number of how many deaths get counted on any given day. Even case numbers are becoming increasingly hard go garner anything from because as they do more tests, particularly outside of hospital, there will be many more positive tests done.

Hospital occupation rates? Could be a better way to establish where we are.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

This from BBC News shows how little can actually be gleaned from the daily total, and why they will likely continue to jump around and not show the true trends at points;

Yes. Presumably the figures have been all over the place all along, that's why the overall trend is so important.

 

[Mellotron]

Well, that’s a revelation, I hadn’t realised that’s how they were recorded. So basically it’s just a random number of how many deaths get counted on any given day. Even case numbers are becoming increasingly hard go garner anything from because as they do more tests, particularly outside of hospital, there will be many more positive tests done.

Hospital occupation rates? Could be a better way to establish where we are.

Yup - probably the best ways to judge accurately atm are to look at hospitalisation rates, and ICU capacity being used up.

Also may explain why Spain and Italy are still having some worse days than expected at this stage - may well be a backlog of deaths being added on to the system.

 

[Recidivist]

Looking back at those posts brings back awful anxiety. The biggest reason I felt I was so anxious was because nobody was taking the potential (at that time) devastation this virus could cause remotely seriously. Currently, it's not too bad as I braced myself for this situation.

Maybe I got carried away calling for border closures on 26 Jan, at the time I felt we should of closed them sooner. But in reality we should of done so in early Feb, probably when we had the situation with the super spreader down here.

Also when I suggested that it would wipe out half the globe, that was a particularly bad night for me. But make no mistake, I think everyone is clear now that if measures wern't in place 100s of millions across the globe would succumb to this. Which is why it is so important we stick to the guidelines.

I still have to.work, I keep 2 metres from everyone, wash and sanitise my hands atleast every 20 minutes. Leave mail posted through the door for a couple of days, wear gloves when filling up at petrol station etc. But am told I go way over the top!

The best estimate of mortality rate (per Imperial College, I believe?) is between 0.5-1.0% so, even if the entire world population caught the virus, your suggestion of 100s of millions is significantly OTT.

Not suggesting for a minute that that changes the need for the various restrictions around the world but it will be interesting to see how it pans out in Sweden where they're taking a very different approach.

I did read a letter from an epidemiologist in the Sunday Times who said that, since the deaths are overwhelmingly amongst the elderly and those with underlying conditions, this section of the population should be totally locked down (not in chains, obviously!) and the rest of the population should pretty much get on with life as normal, as the knock on effects of businesses collapsing and the global economy tanking would probably be worse than the virus itself.

Probably not politically viable as it's tantamount to saying that some of the population (other than the vulnerable categories) will have to take their chances!

Glad I don't have to take these sort of decisions though ......!


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[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Just looked at the BBC page. The contrast between east and west Europe is monumental.

That can't all be down to population density, surely? In the west, cases seems to be directly proportional to population.

 

[Mellotron]

Just looked at the BBC page. The contrast between east and west Europe is monumental.

That can't all be down to population density, surely? In the west, cases seems to be directly proportional to population.

View attachment 121958

Places that receive the most international travel also? The majority of Europe’s major cities are western? One theory anyway.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Yup - probably the best ways to judge accurately atm are to look at hospitalisation rates, and ICU capacity being used up.

Also may explain why Spain and Italy are still having some worse days than expected at this stage - may well be a backlog of deaths being added on to the system.

The BBC showed this morning (and now, still) that the number of confirmed cases in France has fallen from 112 thousand to 82 thousand in one day. Since these numbers are cumulative, the data are false by definition (unless they have found a way to suck virus out of a human and reverse time).

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Places that receive the most international travel also? The majority of Europe’s major cities are western? One theory anyway.

Yes, possibly. Very stark contrast, though.

 

[Weststander]

So is the government position stay indoors and only work if necessary or go to work and catch it?

As for the economic situation, surely a depression is less significant than half a million dead, which is quite possible with the 80% infection rate...

Oh, scrub that, they're mainly old and vulnerable people who don't add anything to the economy! Collateral damage... Could solve the care for the old crisis at the same time, everyone's a winner!

Hi,

I hope your wife's treatment is going OK btw.

Relatively good news today for you, I and anyone else believing that the lockdown should continue. Both the BBC and LBC, and the experts they interviewed, were strongly of the opinion that the UK's current lockdown conditions will continue to at least 30th April, with a review then, based on what the scientists advice.

The media noise in the last 48 hours about a staged return to normal life UK starting now, was speculation. Possibly prompted by countries such as Austria, Denmark and the Czech Republic beginning to end lockdowns, surprisingly as their 'curves' not far ahead of ours. Trump is now actively promoting the idea that they too can see light at the end of the tunnel. Whilst Sweden refused to go into lockdown at all. The point made by a few leaders and economists in other countries, is that this is a balancing act. That to focus solely on minimising covid19 fatalities, at the cost of a long-term economic depression destroying millions of livelihoods and mental health issues due to isolation, is too big a price to pay.

 

[darkwolf666]

Hi,

I hope your wife's treatment is going OK btw.

Relatively good news today for you, I and anyone else believing that the lockdown should continue. Both the BBC and LBC, and the experts they interviewed, were strongly of the opinion that the UK's current lockdown conditions will continue to at least 30th April, with a review then, based on what the scientists advice.

The media noise in the last 48 hours about a staged return to normal life UK starting now, was speculation. Possibly prompted by countries such as Austria, Denmark and the Czech Republic beginning to end lockdowns, surprisingly as their 'curves' not far ahead of ours. Trump is now actively promoting the idea that they too can see light at the end of the tunnel. Whilst Sweden refused to go into lockdown at all. The point made by a few leaders and economists in other countries, is that this is a balancing act. That to focus solely on minimising covid19 fatalities, at the cost of a long-term economic depression destroying millions of livelihoods and mental health issues due to isolation, is too big a price to pay.

Thank you for the good wishes. I am currently sitting in the car park at Maidstone Hospital waiting for my wife after her treatment, I'm not allowed in. But on the upside the car park is free now!!!

Strangely all this talk of easing restrictions doesn't really affect me or my wife. We are shielding for the 12 weeks (minimum as the government have put it) - yes 12 weeks of not going out - apart from to sit in a car park, 12 weeks of having no-one in to our home, 12 weeks of not going out to exercise, shop or any other excuse to get out of the house.

I say 12 weeks, as I think it is likely to be a lot more, especially if those that are being asked to do 3 weeks of a soft lockdown can't play ball (metaphorically that is, as ball games are not allowed)!

 

[Weststander]

Lower than yesterday. Although terrible, I was wondering if we would breach 1000 deaths a day and I am quite relieved considering everything.

It will be interesting to see the new case numbers.

This coming Sunday the ONS will release all the data on deaths with covid19 outside of UK hospitals, collated from death certificates. Necessarily this takes longer to gather from across the UK.

Based on the judgement of professionals signing the certificates, where they stated death due to covid19 or suspected covid19.

We can expect big numbers.

 

[darkwolf666]

This coming Sunday the ONS will release all the data on deaths with covid19 outside of UK hospitals, collated from death certificates. Necessarily this takes longer to gather from across the UK.

Based on the judgement of professionals signing the certificates, where they stated death due to covid19 or suspected covid19.

We can expect big numbers.

Will they go back and add these to each day's figures or just lump it on the day they are released figures?

 

[Weststander]

Thank you for the good wishes. I am currently sitting in the car park at Maidstone Hospital waiting for my wife after her treatment, I'm not allowed in. But on the upside the car park is free now!!!

Strangely all this talk of easing restrictions doesn't really affect me or my wife. We are shielding for the 12 weeks (minimum as the government have put it) - yes 12 weeks of not going out - apart from to sit in a car park, 12 weeks of having no-one in to our home, 12 weeks of not going out to exercise, shop or any other excuse to get out of the house.

I say 12 weeks, as I think it is likely to be a lot more, especially if those that are being asked to do 3 weeks of a soft lockdown can't play ball (metaphorically that is, as ball games are not allowed)!

Heart felt good wishes. Amongst the covid19 crisis, I've never forgotten those with cancer, being diagnosed or those waiting to find out. The government/NHS cannot kick testing for the latter category to the long grass, purely because of covid19. This point was mentioned by an apolitical and very interesting scientist on the radio a short while back.

 

[Triggaaar]

I think there should be a separate thread for all these models or predictions, then in a couple of weeks we can go back and say **** me they were right, or see told you they were talking shite...

For me, a lot of these forecasts deliberately go for the high numbers, so they can look like they know something that the other modellers don't - I doubt, if their figures are wrong anyone is going to go back and tell them they were shite...

You underestimate me.

 

[Weststander]

Will they go back and add these to each day's figures or just lump it on the day they are released figures?

Just lump it, but it will be all out in the open.

That's the way that France does it too, if you follow their daily stats, with random days showing > 1,000 deaths, where they include care home deaths. I'm not sure if they include home and hospice deaths with suspected covid19, but ours will.

A wide array of methodologies across the world, some (Russia) driven by national pride to make them appear healthy.

 

[Swansman]

Hi,Whilst Sweden refused to go into lockdown at all. The point made by a few leaders and economists in other countries, is that this is a balancing act. That to focus solely on minimising covid19 fatalities, at the cost of a long-term economic depression destroying millions of livelihoods and mental health issues due to isolation, is too big a price to pay.

Should be noted that not going into lockdown is actually making our economy worse. Bars, restaurants, museums and everything is supposed to be open but got very, very few customers and since we're not in lockdown, they cant expect fat relief measures (though some things have and will be done) so a lot of businesses would actually have preferred if we went to full scale lockdown.

But the mental health thing is probably going to work out in our favour. In northern Sweden you have around-the-clock darkness in December, January and February and suicide and alcoholism rates are high, locking them up once the spring comes would be very costly.