Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Poojah]

Wouldn't be in this mess if we'd acted in Jan or early Feb. Entire world was in denial all along and didnt want to disrupt the economy.
Look how well that's turned out, could of saved hundreds of billions and thousands of lives.

I’ve thought this a few times, but it’s one of those ‘hindsight’s a wonderful thing’ type scenarios. The problem was a lack of precedent - nothing of this magnitude had ever happened to the modern world and so conventional wisdom assumes it won’t this time either. Sometimes conventional wisdom is wrong.

However, let’s say the government had closed our borders in, say, mid-January, there would have been absolute uproar. From airlines, to travel companies, to every Tom, Dick or Harry who had a holiday booked. We didn’t have to shut our borders for SARS, for bird flu, for swine flu, so why do it now. It would have been a huge call back then to throttle the entire travel industry over something that might not happen, even though it eventually did and we’re left with something many, many times bigger.

Next time something like this occurs, and sadly it will, I guarantee you countries will be closing their borders PDQ. And this time, even the airlines will back it.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Wouldn't be in this mess if we'd acted in Jan or early Feb. Entire world was in denial all along and didnt want to disrupt the economy.
Look how well that's turned out, could of saved hundreds of billions and thousands of lives.

Your right. Went for a meal out in January with family. Was laughed at when my wife told everyone I had purchased face masks. Nothing to worry about they said, only gets old people they said. As the weeks went on their nightmare became our nightmare. It's a massive wake up call, don't mess with nature. Let's hope it slowly eases off, countries get control and peoples lifes can be saved, and those NHS workers on the front line of all this get a break, as we all do our bit and stay in.

 

[Triggaaar]

And both are estimates - educated guesses, to some extent

Or perhaps uneducated

 

[Triggaaar]

Went for a meal out in January with family. Was laughed at when my wife told everyone I had purchased face masks.

What are you doing with the face masks? We don't need them.

 

[Solid at the back]

Your right. Went for a meal out in January with family. Was laughed at when my wife told everyone I had purchased face masks. Nothing to worry about they said, only gets old people they said. As the weeks went on their nightmare became our nightmare. It's a massive wake up call, don't mess with nature. Let's hope it slowly eases off, countries get control and peoples lifes can be saved, and those NHS workers on the front line of all this get a break, as we all do our bit and stay in.

I was asked the other day "when you were warning people about this is Jan, could you see it getting this bad?"
Naturally, if anyone was paying attention to what was going on in China (what was actually reported) that was bad enough to realise that if we let it spread -which we did- there would only be one outcome.

Ironically, I feel much, much less anxious about this today then what I did 8-10 weeks ago as its impossible to ignore this now. But I can't be complacent, I've got to go back to work next Wednesday and I'll make sure I carry on taking my antibacterial wipes to wipe down keyboards, mouses, pens etc, that may of been used by others.

Tragically a 13 year old boy has become a victim to this now

 

[Mellotron]

It's still vastly different to "Prof Ferguson reckons possibly as many as 2-3% of population are/have been infected"

And? I don’t understand your point. You seem to be just looking to pick an argument. It’s not helpful.

 

[Triggaaar]

And? I don’t understand your point. You seem to be just looking to pick an argument. It’s not helpful.

There's no argument, I didn't think there was anything to argue about. I'm just highlighting how wildly different these estimates are - so different that they're completely worthless.

 

[beorhthelm]

There's no argument, I didn't think there was anything to argue about. I'm just highlighting how wildly different these estimates are - so different that they're completely worthless.

absolutly not, they are wildly different because they use different models. we need to know which is closer to reality as it my make substantial difference to policy.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

What are you doing with the face masks? We don't need them.

I haven't used one yet, they are the cheap paper ones too that are useless, and your right we don't need them, but in January I was getting pretty anxious and preparing.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

There's no argument, I didn't think there was anything to argue about. I'm just highlighting how wildly different these estimates are - so different that they're completely worthless.

Unless you know the model they are using and the rationale behind them you can’t say that they are worthless.


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[Deleted member 22389]

I was asked the other day "when you were warning people about this is Jan, could you see it getting this bad?"
Naturally, if anyone was paying attention to what was going on in China (what was actually reported) that was bad enough to realise that if we let it spread -which we did- there would only be one outcome.

Ironically, I feel much, much less anxious about this today then what I did 8-10 weeks ago as its impossible to ignore this now. But I can't be complacent, I've got to go back to work next Wednesday and I'll make sure I carry on taking my antibacterial wipes to wipe down keyboards, mouses, pens etc, that may of been used by others.

Tragically a 13 year old boy has become a victim to this now

I feel better too and glad your anxiety has calmed. When I first starting reading about this in Jan it freaked me out too, but that's because we knew so little about it. We are seeing countries slowly come out of the other side.

 

[Triggaaar]

absolutly not, they are wildly different because they use different models

Models that don't work.

we need to know which is closer to reality as it my make substantial difference to policy.

Which is another way of saying we need to know the reality, so we can adjust our policy. And the reality is not found in these models.

 

[Triggaaar]

Unless you know the model they are using and the rationale behind them you can’t say that they are worthless.

If the true number of infected people is 1%, then a model which states that it's 50% is worthless.

 

[Triggaaar]

I haven't used one yet, they are the cheap paper ones too that are useless, and your right we don't need them, but in January I was getting pretty anxious and preparing.

Fair enough.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

If the true number of infected people is 1%, then a model which states that it's 50% is worthless.

The point about modelling is trying predict an outcome based on available data. The point is we don’t know which is correct but until they are both tested they are equally valid. You could challenge the data behind the model but as we don’t know what it is that’s a tad difficult.
It’s very arrogant to slag of any of these without understanding datasets etc.


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[AZ Gull]

Everybody is aware of the issues there have been with the coronavirus on cruise ships, but those aren't the only vessels that are being impacted. The captain of the US aircraft carrier, USS Theodore Roosevelt, has issued a plea for help in protecting his sailors after the coronavirus started sweeping through the crew (with dozens reported to be infected) - 'Sailors do not need to die': Captain begs for help as coronavirus cripples USS Roosevelt

 

[Triggaaar]

The point about modelling is trying predict an outcome based on available data.

Yes.

The point is we don’t know which is correct

My point is that we've always known that the conclusion from the Oxford model was incorrect.

but until they are both tested they are equally valid.

I disagree. We have incomplete data so the model was designed specifically to attempt to provide more complete data. It failed, so no, I don't see that as a useful model.

You could challenge the data behind the model but as we don’t know what it is that’s a tad difficult.

That's the whole point!

It’s very arrogant to slag of any of these without understanding datasets etc.

Bless.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

You won’t know that it is wrong until antibody testing is carried out. You can say on information available it looks wrong but cannot say categorically that it is wrong. It’s about proof. Equally they cannot say that it is correct ... but then they haven’t have they.


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[Bold Seagull]

It's starting to feel like certain aspects of our strategy is unravelling. The lack of testing and PPE is starting to look a bit of a failure. Lock downs are all well and good, but if you're not mass testing, you have no way of measuring where you are in the epidemic. Politician after politician keep coming on saying they've ordered this stuff, but why wasn't it ordered at the start of February!? Why not order a shed load of PPE, and if wasn't needed just keep it in storage just in case.

 

[beorhthelm]

Yes.
My point is that we've always known that the conclusion from the Oxford model was incorrect.
I disagree. We have incomplete data so the model was designed specifically to attempt to provide more complete data. It failed, so no, I don't see that as a useful model.

That's the whole point!
Bless.

i think the only point here is you dont understand the purpose of statistical modeling.