Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Bold Seagull]

Indeed, but I think this is aiming for a least worst outcome, not a best outcome. The maths is just horrendous.

Last night I did a quick and dirty spreadsheet based on my guess that there were 10,000 people actually infected in the country, with the infections doubling every 6 days, which is what it seems to be, give or take.

That gives 40,000,000 infected on May 22nd - sometime around when I think the experts today said the peak is going to be. Now, by then some will have had the virus and recovered and, sadly, some will have died. But due to the nature of the exponential growth of the spread, those numbers will actually be relatively small.

Now, as I say, this is very quick and dirty, and makes no allowances for how much the spread can be throttled back when greater social distancing tactics are brought into play, but I'm struggling to see how this can't be truly horrible.

I know I've been banging on about this for a couple of weeks now like some sort of crackpot - I so desperately want to be wrong.

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What I think you're missing in these maths doubling up is the infected people that recover fully and are no longer infected. You are not subtracting them from your doubling. That will also grow exponentially, all be it much more slowly. We don't know how long some people may contract then no longer be transmitters from the virus. If it's 7 days as an example, then you will be subtracting those people from the growth.

 

[Bozza]

What I think you're missing in these maths doubling up is the infected people that recover fully and are no longer infected. You are not subtracting them from your doubling. We don't know how long some people may contract then no longer be transmitters from the virus. If it's 7 days as an example, then you will be subtracting those people from the growth.

Absolutely - I kinda acknowledged some of that at least, but the top of the bell curve, even when squished and flattened as much as we possibly can, is still going to be pretty big.

 

[Driver8]

The plan of the UK scientists is that the effects of the virus here are felt over months. So not everyone at once. With safer age groups etc asked to see it through at home.

i.e. we have given up trying to stop it.

 

[vagabond]

Indeed, but I think this is aiming for a least worst outcome, not a best outcome. The maths is just horrendous.

Last night I did a quick and dirty spreadsheet based on my guess that there were 10,000 people actually infected in the country, with the infections doubling every 6 days, which is what it seems to be, give or take.

That gives 40,000,000 infected on May 22nd - sometime around when I think the experts today said the peak is going to be. Now, by then some will have had the virus and recovered and, sadly, some will have died. But due to the nature of the exponential growth of the spread, those numbers will actually be relatively small.

Now, as I say, this is very quick and dirty, and makes no allowances for how much the spread can be throttled back when greater social distancing tactics are brought into play, but I'm struggling to see how this can't be truly horrible.

I know I've been banging on about this for a couple of weeks now like some sort of crackpot - I so desperately want to be wrong.

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Agreed. There’s little to no doubt this pandemic is the real deal. The US response in the past 48 hours (sports and travel) says it all.

I’m happy to see some of the ignorance is starting to go away here, and generally the ‘it’s just a flu’ brigade are taking things on board a bit more.

That said Bozza your calculations, whilst not intentionally so... are more alarmist then they need be. Lots of us have and will be infected. Yes, that is correct. But it is also my understanding that for many of us, we will fully recover or have little to mild symptoms.

I think we can now be reasonably confident that most effected will
be the elderly, the already sick and those with existing lung or respiratory problems. If anyone here is NOT in the above categories they shouldn’t need to panic.

Just some perspective.

 

[Weststander]

And it’s a sound plan. Or as sound as we are going to get. It’s all a out reducing the pressure on health services and therefore saving lives.
There’s a lot of folks who are not seeing the big picture and think the only answer is to lock everything down immediately. A knee jerk reaction which would cause more damage over time.

Sometimes the only way to win the game is not to play.

And based on real experts on the radio throughout the day, a lock down only delays the inevitable. People would not have the chance to build natural resistance.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Absolutely - I kinda acknowledged some of that at least, but the top of the bell curve, even when squished and flattened as much as we possibly can, is still going to be pretty big.

It is going to be big. Unfortunately that is a worldwide reality at this point as there is simply no historic genetic immunity to this. If you can stretch that out to months and possibly years then the impact will be far less. The panic is that it happens over weeks, however all sorts of factors can come into play like climate, social distancing, the recovery of those who contract it, awareness of preventing the spread. As people recover we may well start identifying and isolating antibodies that lead to some treatments such as happened against Ebola.

 

[Notters]

Agreed. There’s little to no doubt this pandemic is the real deal. The US response in the past 48 hours (sports and travel) says it all.

I’m happy to see some of the ignorance is starting to go away here, and generally the ‘it’s just a flu’ brigade are taking things on board a bit more.

That said Bozza your calculations, whilst not intentionally so... are more alarmist then they need be. Lots of us have and will be infected. Yes, that is correct. But it is also my understanding that for many of us, we will fully recover or have little to mild symptoms.

I think we can now be reasonably confident that most effected will
be the elderly, the already sick and those with existing lung or respiratory problems. If anyone here is NOT in the above categories they shouldn’t need to panic.

Just some perspective.

I think it might be reasonable to panic if circa 10-20% of the 30m people who are still infected at the end of May need intensive care.

 

[Wozza]

I think we can now be reasonably confident that most effected will be the elderly, the already sick and those with existing lung or respiratory problems. If anyone here is NOT in the above categories they shouldn’t need to panic.

The problem, of course, is that the vulnerable and non-vulnerable don't hang out in distinct groups.

My kids probably won't die, but they could inadvertently pass on coronavirus to their grandparents.

 

[Weststander]

i.e. we have given up trying to stop it.

In a nation of free movement, it can’t ultimately be stopped, sadly.

I’m sure scientists and politicians across the planet are doing everything possible to ameliorate the effect on lives.

 

[atomised]

As I saw someone.mention it on here earlier I see C2C has been pulled. Also looks like live nation are calling in all arena tours domestically and internationally according to billboard. Not sure what time.period for

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Disneyland Cali has been shut till end of month

 

[amexee]

no-one mentioned that the housing crisis is going to take a hit! Half price housing coming soon, just be prepared to do a deep clean!!

 

[LlcoolJ]

His son (somehow shoehorned into every NSC post) is going to be a professional cricketer...

I'll be sure to let him know that, he'll be really happy. Seeing as nobody has ever said that, apart from you.

Not sure when I pissed on your chips but that's an extremely incorrect, unnecessary and snide post.

Expected from the previous idiot but I was unaware that you were of the same ilk.

But just to make you happy (and confirm your rubbish) my son says that you're a ****.*

*P.S. I made that up. It's me who said it.

 

[peterward]

I have an expensive family trip booked to the US over Easter. I am not looking for sympathy here, but many people will be in a similar situation. I am hoping one or both governments, give me a get out clause. The possibility of spending hours flying to land in a controlled zone, with no public gatherings and everything shut down, does not sound like a memorable trip. I would be happy to stay at home in these circumstances. I am not for a minute suggesting government policy, should fit around my holiday arrangements, but from a selfish perspective, I would be grateful for the opportunity to cancel and rebook in happier circumstances.

different country, same boat. a lot of money and quality time to lose. would be great to be able to claim on the travel insurance somehow

 

[peterward]

The problem, of course, is that the vulnerable and non-vulnerable don't hang out in distinct groups.

My kids probably won't die, but they could inadvertently pass on coronavirus to their grandparents.

I guess not many of us live with elderly parents or kids with grandparents, but their are some that do. Its more common in some other UK based families with roots in other parts of europe/world.

 

[Bedsex]

As has been said before, we haven’t really got a true picture of the actual number infected, because of those with mild symptoms etc.

We’re now being told that only those in hospital will be tested now, so anyone who has developed a fever and/or persistent cough and is consequently self isolating will not be tested and therefore if they do have it, but not seriously enough to be hospitalised, this won’t count towards the number infected.

This is a sensible approach as it means resources are focused more on those who need it, but as a consequence (maybe intended) the official number infected may not rise as quickly as expected.

I’ve picked up a persistent dry cough, tight chest, headache and sore throat in the last couple of days. No fever though, so I’m pretty sure it’s not Covid-19, but I won’t know for sure, unless it gets worse, but in the meantime I guess I’ll have to go into solitary confinement.

I was undecided whether I’d be going to the game on Saturday, this settles it I suppose!

 

[The Wookiee]

I am due to go on holiday to Turkey at the end of the month for a week.

I have been told by my employers that if I go then on my return they will insist i self isolate for two weeks and they will only pay me the statuary sick pay.

What are your thoughts on this ?

 

[vagabond]

I am due to go on holiday to Turkey at the end of the month for a week.

I have been told by my employers that if I go then on my return they will insist i self isolate for two weeks and they will only pay me the statuary sick pay.

What are your thoughts on this ?

Why on earth would you want to travel around Europe when there’s a global pandemic?

I’m genuinely curious why as I’ve seen a few holiday goers talking up their holidays here without a care in the world. I even know some personally who have decided to fly to India.

I’m glad you’re at least considering things!

Cancel it man. Come on.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I am due to go on holiday to Turkey at the end of the month for a week.

I have been told by my employers that if I go then on my return they will insist i self isolate for two weeks and they will only pay me the statuary sick pay.

What are your thoughts on this ?

Think that’s fair enough

They have a duty of care to the rest of the workers.

 

[Birdie Boy]

As has been said before, we haven’t really got a true picture of the actual number infected, because of those with mild symptoms etc.

We’re now being told that only those in hospital will be tested now, so anyone who has developed a fever and/or persistent cough and is consequently self isolating will not be tested and therefore if they do have it, but not seriously enough to be hospitalised, this won’t count towards the number infected.

This is a sensible approach as it means resources are focused more on those who need it, but as a consequence (maybe intended) the official number infected may not rise as quickly as expected.

I’ve picked up a persistent dry cough, tight chest, headache and sore throat in the last couple of days. No fever though, so I’m pretty sure it’s not Covid-19, but I won’t know for sure, unless it gets worse, but in the meantime I guess I’ll have to go into solitary confinement.

I was undecided whether I’d be going to the game on Saturday, this settles it I suppose!

I've had all of that over the last 3 weeks, so it sounds like the normal flu /cold. My cough went and has now come back, my sore throat went and feels worse at night but OK during the day. My headaches went 2 weeks ago. I've been to hospital twice in the last 7 days, unrelated, and my temperature is fine. They were not worried.

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