I think it's a pretty even match. But the talk of an 'easy route' is a set up for embarrassing failure.
I'd rather lose a quarter final to Brazil with a heroic performance than stumble to a semi final trying to run away from the prospect of meeting anyone who is decent. It's not as if the rest of the planet isn't aware of the origins of a team's success.
I doubt that you could find any talk of an easier route coming from Southgate or any of his team. Losing to Columbia wont be an embarrassing failure, it would be getting as far as we expected. A win would surpass expectations.
However far we get, plenty will be ready to slag off the team & management.