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its going to be one hell of a tough season



The Large One

Who's Next?
Jul 7, 2003
52,343
97.2FM
You don't necessarily agree that our results against those pushing for promotion to the Championship are more relevant (as a yardstick) than our results against teams struggling not tobe relegated to League 2? Ok, but I think that's misguided.

I agree that the bottom 8 in the Championship aren't necessarily better than the top eight in League 1, but I can pretty much guarantee that the majority of Championship teams will be of a quality similar (or better) than Southampton, Huddersfield, Peterborough, MK Dons and Bournemouth . Because as you say, they're there on merit.

My mini league table was about providing a perspective.

I read the mini-league as a skewed statistic.

Southampton got 15 fewer points than we did against teams who didn't finish in the top six. That skews the stats. Two of the teams we might be coming up with we played AFTER we won the Championship. That skews the stats. One of the teams that might come up, we did the double over - scoring the more goals against than any other team (apart from Plymouth). That skews the stats.

We could statfart each other til we die of asphyxia. As long as Gus does what he needs to do to improve the squad over the summer, I'm not worried, as they count for little.
 




DT Withdean

New member
Mar 5, 2011
1,089
Can go both ways:

Arsenal, Reading, Huddersfield and Hull did well in the first few seasons of home games in their new stadia.

St.Mary's famously had a stack of home losses and a relegation.
 


DT Withdean

New member
Mar 5, 2011
1,089
I read the mini-league as a skewed statistic.

Southampton got 15 fewer points than we did against teams who didn't finish in the top six. That skews the stats. Two of the teams we might be coming up with we played AFTER we won the Championship. That skews the stats. One of the teams that might come up, we did the double over - scoring the more goals against than any other team (apart from Plymouth). That skews the stats.

We could statfart each other til we die of asphyxia. As long as Gus does what he needs to do to improve the squad over the summer, I'm not worried, as they count for little.

The Large One is spot on.

The mini league also excludes 2 points pinched by a linesman (Bournemouth at Withdean).

From Southampton's point of view, you could then over-examine and summise how alarming for them that lower-half League One teams cut them open; meaning Championship strikers will have a field day against them.

Brighton relaxed noticably after the Walsall away game - mission accomplished, for a small and noticably knackered squad. Whilst S'ton & Hudders' had everything to fight for.
 


hola gus

New member
Aug 8, 2010
1,797
I honestly cant see Cardiff doing as well as some think on here. I personally think they will struggle. Watford and Barnsley will go down next season. Im sure both Leicster and Hull will have decent seasons and possibly Leeds too.
 


Albion Dan

Banned
Jul 8, 2003
11,125
Peckham
Tony Bloom is a decent businessman and I confidently predict that he can see the commercial suicide of potentially letting us minge around the relegation slots. Probably the surest way of getting STH's to not renew and putting the whole project at risk. I am sure we will see enough investment to put us safely into the competitive bracket in this league. It's just like half the woosies on NSC cacking their knickers that we were going to get caught in the promotion race this season when it was obvious we were going to walk it.

We are not that team anymore, and our supporters need to start thinking that way too and MAN UP. This is the dawn of a new era.
 




thesaint

New member
May 21, 2011
8
The Large One is spot on.

The mini league also excludes 2 points pinched by a linesman (Bournemouth at Withdean).

From Southampton's point of view, you could then over-examine and summise how alarming for them that lower-half League One teams cut them open; meaning Championship strikers will have a field day against them.

Brighton relaxed noticably after the Walsall away game - mission accomplished, for a small and noticably knackered squad. Whilst S'ton & Hudders' had everything to fight for.

cut us open..?
we had the best defence in the league..

that "mini table" offers a little insight to what you COULD face next season..

you lot were very good at getting past the likes of rochdale and the like better than anyone else in league 1....basically, your style better suited getting past that parked bus....

against the better teams who took the game to you more...you did not do so well..which will be the NPC week in week out....

saying that, like you said, the table does not take into account that you lost to us and huddersfield at home after your season was over etc..

should be good for local football...saints, pompey and you lot wanting the bragging rights etc
 


Rich Suvner

Skint years RIP
Jul 17, 2003
2,500
Worthing
I read the mini-league as a skewed statistic.

Southampton got 15 fewer points than we did against teams who didn't finish in the top six. That skews the stats. Two of the teams we might be coming up with we played AFTER we won the Championship. That skews the stats. One of the teams that might come up, we did the double over - scoring the more goals against than any other team (apart from Plymouth). That skews the stats.

We could statfart each other til we die of asphyxia. As long as Gus does what he needs to do to improve the squad over the summer, I'm not worried, as they count for little.

you and several others have totally missed the point.

the mini-table is indicative of problems we have experienced against the more successful teams in the division - those of a quality most closely to matched to those in the division above. this was provided to provide a perspective of the challenge ahead. teams in the bottom half of league 1 are irrelevant as an indicator of the championship. i've not been trying to statfart at any point. simply highlight the challenge ahead.

i haven't said i am worried about gus and tony's ability to take on this challenge, but people who automatically assume that moving into falmer means we're going to romp to the top half are deluded and in for a shock. we're entering a league with some serious quality.
 
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Blackadder

Brighton Bhuna Boy
Jul 6, 2003
16,111
Haywards Heath
cut us open..?
you lot were very good at getting past the likes of rochdale and the like better than anyone else in league 1....basically, your style better suited getting past that parked bus....

I know what you are trying to say. On a pedantic note, we didn't get past Rochdale this season, home or away.:smile:
 




GoldWithFalmer

Seaweed! Seaweed!
Apr 24, 2011
12,687
SouthCoast
The 2 things that will see us in good stead are-

Team spirit-we had that in abundance in 2002 & 2004.

&

Style of play-what we lacked in 2002 & 2004.

We have both now-

we are dark horses for the Play off's but i don't buy into this 4th from bottom a successful season talk.
 




DT Withdean

New member
Mar 5, 2011
1,089
cut us open..?
we had the best defence in the league..

that "mini table" offers a little insight to what you COULD face next season..

you lot were very good at getting past the likes of rochdale and the like better than anyone else in league 1....basically, your style better suited getting past that parked bus....

against the better teams who took the game to you more...you did not do so well..which will be the NPC week in week out....

saying that, like you said, the table does not take into account that you lost to us and huddersfield at home after your season was over etc..

should be good for local football...saints, pompey and you lot wanting the bragging rights etc

It will be a virtually new start for Brighton and Southampton. With no debts unlike others, both will improve their squads in a big way this Summer.
Brighton have already shed a few, and we expect some new and better players to replace them.

Look forward to the Southampton-Portsmouth derbies. Hants Police won't be.
 




The Large One

Who's Next?
Jul 7, 2003
52,343
97.2FM
you and several others have totally missed the point.

the mini-table is indicative of problems we have experienced against the more successful teams in the division - those of a quality most closely to matched to those in the division above. this was provided to provide a perspective of the challenge ahead. teams in the bottom half of league 1 are irrelevant as an indicator of the championship. i've not been trying to statfart at any point. simply highlight the challenge ahead.

You can't have this analysis both ways. You can't dismiss the fact of other teams near the top were losing to teams near the bottom - it would completely undermine the argument. The points is it's indicative of teams who cannot come to terms with consistency - never mind quality - which is a FAR bigger problem. That's the sense of perspective that's required.

Above and beyond that, the 6-team mini-league is meaningless.
 




Ray the Otter

New member
Apr 7, 2006
109
by the riverbank
You can't have this analysis both ways. You can't dismiss the fact of other teams near the top were losing to teams near the bottom - it would completely undermine the argument. The points is it's indicative of teams who cannot come to terms with consistency - never mind quality - which is a FAR bigger problem. That's the sense of perspective that's required.

Above and beyond that, the 6-team mini-league is meaningless.

If you two carry on like this I'm going to blow my brains out.
 


GoldWithFalmer

Seaweed! Seaweed!
Apr 24, 2011
12,687
SouthCoast


The Large One

Who's Next?
Jul 7, 2003
52,343
97.2FM
cut us open..?
we had the best defence in the league..

that "mini table" offers a little insight to what you COULD face next season..

you lot were very good at getting past the likes of rochdale and the like better than anyone else in league 1....basically, your style better suited getting past that parked bus....

against the better teams who took the game to you more...you did not do so well..which will be the NPC week in week out....

saying that, like you said, the table does not take into account that you lost to us and huddersfield at home after your season was over etc..

should be good for local football...saints, pompey and you lot wanting the bragging rights etc

Total and utter gibberish.

There were many teams who played good football who we beat. Rochdale did not park the bus in front of goal. Nor did MK Dons, Peterborough, Leyton Orient and a whole host of other teams who had a good go at us.

We were ALSO good at eventually beating teams who parked the bus.

You conspired to lose to two of the relegated teams.
 








Rich Suvner

Skint years RIP
Jul 17, 2003
2,500
Worthing
What, a (mildly) passionate debate on the futility of statistical manipulation?

the fact that you still think i'm talking about stats and calculation of the league 1 division, rather than which teams serve as a better indication of championship quality, is why i simply give up trying to communicate a simple point to you.
 


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