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If anyone's interested - absolute carnage on stock exchanges today.



afters - if the old building societies had remained mutual - wouldn't that have kept Northern Rock, Bradford and Bingley and the Halifax out of the crisis ?

I have not heard of problems at the Nationwide - or are they next ?

It would have kept them largely out of the fire as they wouldn't have been permitted to get involved in many of the practices that have caused them problems. I'm not sure they would have been fireproof, but certainly they may have had less exposure to risk.
 




aftershavedave

Well-known member
Jul 9, 2003
7,042
as 10cc say, not in hove
Sorry. The banks are regulated. The problems that Sweden had in the nineties and that Iceland are having now can be traced back to deregulation.

Global markets are complex, but funding rules have been too lax.

so you believe that the current problems are down to lack of regulation in general and of bank funding in particular?

i can't agree with that.

the problem that the icelandic banks are facing (and it's nothing new, it was widely anticipated even 2 years ago) is that institutions were willing to fund their expansion plans on the back of high ratings from s&p and moody, and because the underlying risks were underpriced, the problems were exarcebated.

in my view, it's a risk-pricing issue, not a regulation issue
 


aftershavedave

Well-known member
Jul 9, 2003
7,042
as 10cc say, not in hove
afters - if the old building societies had remained mutual - wouldn't that have kept Northern Rock, Bradford and Bingley and the Halifax out of the crisis ?

I have not heard of problems at the Nationwide - or are they next ?

that would probably have been the case, yes. but even mutuals have investment programs and there would have been some impact.
 


larus

Well-known member
so you believe that the current problems are down to lack of regulation in general and of bank funding in particular?

i can't agree with that.

the problem that the icelandic banks are facing (and it's nothing new, it was widely anticipated even 2 years ago) is that institutions were willing to fund their expansion plans on the back of high ratings from s&p and moody, and because the underlying risks were underpriced, the problems were exarcebated.

in my view, it's a risk-pricing issue, not a regulation issue


After what I've read in the FT & Times, the problems we are encountering in the US/UK are caused by lack of regulation.

Sweden went through the same in the 90's when they realxed the regulatory framework for the financial institutions. This led to a housing bubble and and a bust, followed by a 3 year recession.

Iceland deregulated their banks in the late 90's (I beleive), which led to the huge expansion in financial services.

Both of these scenarios are the same as what is being experienced in the UK/US. The lending rules have been relaxed to such an extent, that the banks have been allowed to lend more from the same level of deposits.

This is a REGULATOLRY failure, which is why everyone is saying the REGULATIONS will be tigthened up in the future. If it wasn't a regulatory failure, changed the regulation wouldn't have an effect :shrug:.
 


aftershavedave

Well-known member
Jul 9, 2003
7,042
as 10cc say, not in hove
Both of these scenarios are the same as what is being experienced in the UK/US. The lending rules have been relaxed to such an extent, that the banks have been allowed to lend more from the same level of deposits.

and when was this significant relaxation of UK and US lending regulation?

answer: there hasn't been one.
 




Publius Ovidius

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
46,690
at home
This has been a week of serious penny-dropping. This may be a simplified view, but is it the case that:

a) my ISA savings (as plugged heavily by the government) have been directly or indirectly lent out to people who have spent it/pissed it up the wall and won't be paying it back. I could therefore lose a good chunk of it?

b) I'd have been better off using the money to help pay off the mortgage. While the value of our house may be falling, it's still bricks and mortar which is nice to live in and would be nice to own outright. If times are going to be tough it would also be good to reduce our monthly outgoings.

Does this make sense?

Yes it does. we have two months to go on the mortgage and will hopefully pay it off at the end of the month.

To be honest, we are not looking to move so the value of the house is immaterial to us...laura will be looking for a property when she qualifies next year, therefor the more priices fall, the better off she is, so to a degree we are in a win win......obviously depending on my company who cover all the major financial instititions and could be hit big time. ( time to keep your head down!!)

My mum, took out a financial " agreement" to pay something whereby this reputable insurance company who can "quote you happy" FUCKERS! gave her £50 k which she didnt have to pay back, but the interest changed would be added to the "loan" but she was told that as the price of her house would go up the value would be in excess of what she was being charged in interest.
Well, I said when I found out that this was HORSESHIT and sure enough, we calculate that in the next few years the value of the "loan" will be not that far off the value of the house. I hope to Christ my mum doesnt become ill and we need to put her in a home, as we will have nothing left from the capital in her home to pay for it!!!!
 


larus

Well-known member
and when was this significant relaxation of UK and US lending regulation?

answer: there hasn't been one.

Can't answer that question. If, however, the introduction of new regulations are required for financial institutions, then surely the failure to not have these regulations in place is the failure of the politicians and the bodies who oversee financial propriety, i.e. the Boe and the FSA.
 


aftershavedave

Well-known member
Jul 9, 2003
7,042
as 10cc say, not in hove
Can't answer that question. If, however, the introduction of new regulations are required for financial institutions, then surely the failure to not have these regulations in place is the failure of the politicians and the bodies who oversee financial propriety, i.e. the Boe and the FSA.

that's where our views differ. i don't actually see this as a failure of regulation, and all of the paper talk about rich bankers taking bonuses and the banks not being properly regulated in my view aren't the real issues.

with a global economy one thing is for sure: our level of regulation is among the strongest in the world (with the us and germany) so any move to further tighten the controls will only allow chinese, middle east, and indians to benefit......
 








Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,312
Brighton
things getting worse and worse

Fearmongering is the WORST thing we can do at the moment. I see it as a positive thing that they are having a meeting to work it out.

Nothing worse than threads with things like..."I've heard such as such might go bust" etc etc

We're creating a culture of fear which will only have negative impacts on our economy. Very frustrating to watch.
 
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Man of Harveys

Well-known member
Jul 9, 2003
18,804
Brighton, UK
emergency meeting between the govt, boe and fsa at 5pm......things getting worse and worse

"What the f*** are we going to do?"
"How the f*** am I supposed to know?" etc
 


aftershavedave

Well-known member
Jul 9, 2003
7,042
as 10cc say, not in hove
"What the f*** are we going to do?"
"How the f*** am I supposed to know?" etc

actually, i suspect not.

they've got a plan, it would have been prepared while the US was doing the same a couple/few weeks ago.

hopefully they are preparing to push the button and sort out our domestic mess as best they can.
 


The Spanish

Well-known member
Aug 12, 2008
6,478
P
Interesting stuff on this forum....

Green Energy Investors -> : Main Discussion

We're all going to hell in a handcart!!


hahahaha they are f***ing loving it on there. we may be headed for meltdown but theres still time to laugh at the proper nutters. all this 'i would fly to zurich and get your gold bars out mate' advice as fellow conspiracy theorists, lunatics and apocalypse worshippers whip each other up into a frenzy.

THANK YOU for posting that link.
 




cjd

Well-known member
Jun 22, 2006
6,226
La Rochelle
Just a quick question on finance...............

Is the "guarantee" from the Government for up to £50,000 in savings at a bank, include the money you may have in a current account...?
 


beardy gull

Well-known member
Jul 18, 2003
4,111
Portslade
hahahaha they are f***ing loving it on there. we may be headed for meltdown but theres still time to laugh at the proper nutters. all this 'i would fly to zurich and get your gold bars out mate' advice as fellow conspiracy theorists, lunatics and apocalypse worshippers whip each other up into a frenzy.

THANK YOU for posting that link.

It's great isn't it?
 












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