House Prices/Credit Crunch/Recession etc - Article from FT..

[User removed 4]

No you are right i don't know anything

My Uncle who works for the Bank of England on the other hand

Populist drivel from the media is crap as i try not to look at the news

And sheep don't think so somehow

dont suppose there is any chance of your uncle giving me the figures a little bit early is there ? theres a good drink in it for him !!

 

[Beach Hut]

I predict a very dire 12 months ahead however people have been very silly at taking up all these wonderful offers of credit and it is now evident many house holds will be in severe financial difficulty - several of our friends are already.

I can see around a 20% drop in house prices however many retailers will go under in the next 12 months ahead.

Tough times and banks and also borrowers have only themselves to blame.

Another tip is I thing Bradford & Bingley may well go down the route of Northern Rock in the next few months.

 

[steward 433]

If oil and food prices continue to rise, pushing up inflation, then the BoE will have no option but to raise Interest Rates, which in turn will mean Mortgages becoming even harder to come by - at least CHEAP mortgages anyway.

A rise in interest rates is more likely than a fall at the moment I'm afraid.

Oil prices are not still rising though!!!!!!!!!!!

BBC NEWS | Business | Market Data | Commodities

 

[Fat Pete Clemenza]

My Uncle who works for the Bank of England on the other hand

surely cleaners don't have access to economic reoprts

 

[steward 433]

dont suppose there is any chance of your uncle giving me the figures a little bit early is there ? theres a good drink in it for him !!

He won't give me the figures he just said save for a deposit as houses will be very cheap

 

[steward 433]

surely cleaners don't have access to economic reoprts

If you look at my profile you will see i am not a cleaner

 

[Papa Lazarou]

If you look at my profile you will see i am not a cleaner

I believe he is suggesting that your UNCLE is a cleaner, though.

 

[steward 433]

I believe he is suggesting that your UNCLE is a cleaner, though.

I would lick a toilet bowl clean for the money he is earning

 

[Cian]

If you can get a decent 3 bed house next year for £ 200k people will be snapping them up and this will ripple up the ladder.

I'd suspect people will actually think "hrm, that house was 250,000 now its 200,000 - I think I'll wait till its 150,000.". That and being unable to get mortgages....

 

[hitony]

If I made a statement saying

" House prices will fall by 60% next year ". It looks good and may sell a few papers but it is not going to happen. I have my finger on the pulse. Prices will fall by 15% from the start of this correction , early 2008 until the middle of 2009.

I predict by Summer next year, money will be in much greater supply in the markets, rates will come down, criteria will slacken and loan to values will increase. With prices 15% lower people will stampede to the estate agents and lenders and prices will gain that 15% within the nexy year to two years.

Anyone that predicts or wants a 50% fall is living in cloud cuckoo land. Halifax Plc have today announced major reductions in the fixed rates, tracker rates and fees, other lenders will follow suit. We could be seeing the early seeds of a recovery in lending. Lets hope so.

If you can get a decent 3 bed house next year for £ 200k people will be snapping them up and this will ripple up the ladder. If Darling does something about Stamp Duty by raising the exempt level to at least £ 150000 and levelling above
£ 150000 at 1% that will make a massive diference. First time buyers will be able to buy next year that have not for several years and an injection of first time buyers in the market again will ripple up the ladder.

I expect things to be tough for another year and this year is all about survival for estate agents and mortgage brokers but I certainly intend to be around when the upturn starts next year.

Gotta be honest i think your racing tips are nearer the mark, than that written above (oh and i dont bet on your racing tips by the way)

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Having been a dedicated professional in the industry for 2 decades with professional qualifications of course I know nothing. The mugs and losers will hang on and on and on the clever people will buy when the time is right like they did in the mid 90's when people like those on here weere predicting never ending property price falls and are not owning millions pound plus portfoilios. Still hang on for 5 years if you want.

 

[Cian]

Nobody is going to hang on for 5 years if prices starting rising again.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

I remember people in the 90's umming or arring in the mid 1990's about buying a garden 1 bed flat in the Fiveways area for £ 32000 as the press said prices would fall further, price last year £ 180000, now £ 160000. Even with a 20% fall they are laughing and this will happen again. People will assume prices will fall forever and hang on and miss out like they did last time. I think its great all this doom and ggloom because there will be some great opportunities in the next 2 years.

 

[hitony]

Having been a dedicated professional in the industry for 2 decades with professional qualifications of course I know nothing. The mugs and losers will hang on and on and on the clever people will buy when the time is right like they did in the mid 90's when people like those on here weere predicting never ending property price falls and are not owning millions pound plus portfoilios. Still hang on for 5 years if you want.

I have been a dedicated professional in the housing industry for 3 decades, i also have professional qualifications, but i have still been made redundant and in all honesty i do hope you are right, it will prevent many people from losing there jobs if you are, but i fear that not to be the case.

By the way, i personally did not say you know nothing.

 

[Chicken Run]

He won't give me the figures he just said save for a deposit as houses will be very cheap

Well as you said in a previous thread you have had 18 ys to save for a deposit so you should do well sir, on another note what is it you do for a living, cos i thought i spent to much work time on NSC but you sir make me feel a whole lot better

 

[User removed 4]

Having been a dedicated professional in the industry for 2 decades with professional qualifications of course I know nothing. The mugs and losers will hang on and on and on the clever people will buy when the time is right like they did in the mid 90's when people like those on here weere predicting never ending property price falls and are not owning millions pound plus portfoilios. Still hang on for 5 years if you want.

no one is suggesting you know nothing as you say you have been a professional in your field for 20 years, if i wanted mortgage advice or any advice to do with the mechanics of buying a house i would come to you,however my field is the money/futures markets and i can assure you that i have never seen conditions as bad as this , and talkingabout a recovery by next spring or summer is wishful thinking (understandably) pure and simple,i asked in a previous thread what you based this assumption on and you replied " a hunch" for hunch i would read hope, however differing views are what makes a market and either one of us could be right or wrong !

 

[nail-Z]

Oil prices are not still rising though!!!!!!!!!!!

BBC NEWS | Business | Market Data | Commodities

I think you'll find reports like this one scattered all over the web today, suggesting record Highs again in Brent Crude.

BBC don't appear to have been updating their prices for this recently.

 

[User removed 4]

I think you'll find reports like this one scattered all over the web today, suggesting record Highs again in Brent Crude.

BBC don't appear to have been updating their prices on for this recently.

its more than a suggestion , there are record highs in crude wti as well as brent.

 

[eastlondonseagull]

I predict a very dire 12 months ahead however people have been very silly at taking up all these wonderful offers of credit and it is now evident many house holds will be in severe financial difficulty - several of our friends are already.

I can see around a 20% drop in house prices however many retailers will go under in the next 12 months ahead.

Tough times and banks and also borrowers have only themselves to blame.

Another tip is I thing Bradford & Bingley may well go down the route of Northern Rock in the next few months.

Well, my house has dropped nearly £20,000 since we put it on the market, that's almost 10% in only five months. We had an offer of £170,000 a week or so ago from a woman who'd initially been round the house back in February when it was on for £200,000. We turned it down, accepting her revised offer of £175,000 (a full £25,000 under what we'd initially put the house on the market for). She then withdrew her offer, giving no reason. I can only presume that as a buyer, watching prices and therefore in a very strong position, she's decided to wait a little longer, till they come down further. It's a scary position for us sellers to be in, because we need to make as much as poss to put down on our next place.

We're thinking about taking the profit we do make on our house (within reason) and sticking it an 11% account and renting for a while. But if we can't actually sell our house (there are 15-20 houses for sale per buyer atm, so they're spoiled for choice) we will have to stay put.

Either that, or rent ours out and try to rent a bigger place ourselves. I'm lucky, in that I do have some healthy equity in my house, but nothing like the Fiveways example Uncle Spielberg listed above. I bought the place for £132,000, with a £15K deposit, so had a mortgage of only £117K, but a remortgage to do windows, put in new kitchen / bathroom etc, has made it a little more precarious.

It is really scary atm...

.

 

[Uncle C]

We're thinking about taking the profit we do make on our house (within reason) and sticking it an 11% account and renting for a while.

So who's offering 11%?