General Election 2015

[Herr Tubthumper]

They would certainly block any attempt to bring the spend/tax ratio of Scotland in line with that of England.

Possibly. Possibly not.

 

[glasfryn]

I disagree,

I think it would mean they would walk the next election.

but do not let him anywhere near the red button ...................the mans an absolute baffoon, but hey if we are talking about him as the next tory leader it must mean the end of "we are all in this together" dave.
suits me sir

 

[Machiavelli]

A quick scan of http://lordashcroftpolls.com/ doesn't really bear that out IMO. Looks like quite an even spread.

I'm not claiming I've done a scientific study on it, but it appears I'm not alone in my suspicions. See this from politicalbetting.com:

The point I’ll be waiting for on the night will be the first LAB-CON marginals to declare. These are the seats that will determine which party comes top and all that could mean in the post-election bantering.

Looking at the Press Association expected declaration timings we are not going to get much on these seats before 1am when the Nuneaton result is scheduled.

This Midlands seat is LAB target number 32 from CON in England and Wales which would change hands on a 2.32% swing. A successful CON defence would be a good pointer to them winning most seats. A loss a bad one.

Nuneaton looks set also to be the first LAB-CON marginal in England and Wales where Lord Ashcroft has carried constituency polling. His last there, carried out in March, (see above) had LAB taking it on a 5% swing. What will be interesting for me is not just the result here but what it says about the many other 100 or so seats that Lord Ashcroft has polled which have had a big impact on constituency betting markets.

If on the night the Ashcroft polling prove to be good predictors then betting prices linked to his seat polls will harden. If not then the other way.

Now I know that Lord A describes his polls as snapshots but they have had a big impact on the betting. What is important is to look at the fieldwork dates. Polling done as far back as July might be less relevant.

I wonder why this is. I also wonder why he's released so many Scottish polls during the election proper period. Is it because he's a Tory, tax avoiding peer, that has bankrolled the party?
As Hong Kong Phooey says: Could be.

 

[Elvis]

the Tory's will have a coronation of Boris (who is hugely popular nationally).

dd
In what Country? The man is a baffoon! He is a game show host, people laugh at him because he muddles his lines. Christ he is not even unanimously popular in his own party.

 

[Hampster Gull]

It's the same debate, just slightly different words. Basically, lots of Tory-supporting media drivel dressed up as genuine concern about what will happen under a Labour led government. Recently we've had the media bullying the electorate into attempting to believe the Lab/SNP would ruin the country, but that's not working. (Funny how they haven't bullied the Conservatives into ruling out a UKIP coalition, by the way). So now, we're being told they will tax us to death once again.

This is my favourite example of such a media-driven crock of shìt and how it manifests itself for the gullible on here:


Marvellous stuff. If Labour say 50% tax, they obviously mean 80%.

An unnecssary belittling response from you.

Just because people dont agree with you it doesn't mean they are gullible. By way of explanation Labour have taxed at 80%, its a fact not a myth. It doesnt mean they ever will again but it does mean they have form.

Just because others are tabling arguements you dont like doesnt mean its bullying.

 

[London Irish]

The Tory candidate in Rotherham is apparently called Sebastian

 

[Hampster Gull]

Well, he's not favourite according to Populus

There are three things about Johnson: he's not much of a team player, which a PM needs to be; he's not good on the detail of policy, something else that PM needs to have and he's widely loathed by a section of the Tory party ... and divided parties don't do well.

My money would be on May as a leader, she's more popular among the Tory faithful

He has no intention of being the leader

 

[Hampster Gull]

No, there isn't a party which is intent on breaking up Germany but there have been numerous junior coalition partners with a small block of votes and wildly different plans to the main party. Take the 2009 election, Merkel teamed up with the FDP and they had just 9% of the vote, vastly different plans and were, and still, are hell-bent on privatisation and free-markets. If the FDP were in sole charge Germany would look very very very different....but their policies were kept in check. Whilst the details are different the principle is the same as the Labour/SNP set up I.e. the FDP were not able to hold anyone to ransom and flog off Germany's family silver and turn Germany into a raging free-market hell-hole.

Oh, and there's a solidarity tax here and has been for decades; plenty of money flows to the east at the expense of the West. No one seems to care

Exactly the point i made a few days ago, there has been no coalition party with the express intent to break up Germany. The SNP are like many socialis parties in Europe so i can see why they are attractive to many. But thir primary objective is to have an independent scotland and there second objectie is to promoe scotland. This sits very uncomfortably with many people and my gut feel is that this will have an impact in the last few days of the election at the cost of labour mps.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Exactly the point i made a few days ago, there has been no coalition party with the express intent to break up Germany. The SNP are like many socialis parties in Europe so i can see why they are attractive to many. But thir primary objective is to have an independent scotland and there second objectie is to promoe scotland. This sits very uncomfortably with many people and my gut feel is that this will have an impact in the last few days of the election at the cost of labour mps.

Isn't it the job of all MPs to represent and promote their region/constituency? If they didn't you'd be the first to moan.

If the SNP get a pile of seats then they deserve a say. It's about time London/England had less influence. Your comment reminds me of Man U fans moaning about not winning anymore as though they have a divine right to collect trophies.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Isn't it the job of all MPs to represent and promote their region/constituency? If they didn't you'd be the first to moan. Your comment reminds me of Man U fans moaning about not winning anymore as though they have a divine right to collect trophies.

My point combined two things. I fully expect them to put scotland first and to seek to navigate through to seperation. That is their stated purpose as a party. I just dont think its in the interest of the UK to have them at the heart of decision making given those combined objectives and a labour snp pact will do that. But if it happens it happens, its democracy, its just not something i will support.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

My point combined two things. I fully expect them to put scotland first and to seek to navigate through to seperation. That is their stated purpose as a party. I just dont think its in the interest of the UK to have them at the heart of decision making given those combined objectives and a labour snp pact will do that. But if it happens it happens, its democracy, its just not something i will support.

I understand but I genuinely cannot see how they can use their small number of seats to navigate a separation. Nor Trident for that matter. Both are seismic UK changes which they simply will not be able to get through. The idea they can hold anyone to ransom is ridiculous. As kingmaker they will have a good negotiating hand, but ransom no. If they did piss around there will be a swift vote of no confidence and they will be out on their ear and I firmly believe with less seats/votes in a re-election.

 

[larus]

The Tory candidate in Rotherham is apparently called Sebastian

Wow, what must it be like to have such an immense intellect as yours to be able to condemn someone for their name. What next; someones sexuality, race, age, height, disability?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Wow, what must it be like to have such an immense intellect as yours to be able to condemn someone for their name. What next; someones sexuality, race, age, height, disability?

The Hove Tory candidate is called Cox

 

[Bry Nylon]

I understand but I genuinely cannot see how they can use their small number of seats to navigate a separation. Nor Trident for that matter. Both are seismic UK changes which they simply will not be able to get through. The idea they can hold anyone to ransom is ridiculous. As kingmaker they will have a good negotiating hand, but ransom no. If they did piss around there will be a swift vote of no confidence and they will be out on their ear and I firmly believe with less seats/votes in a re-election.

The issue I have with the potential for the SNP to be in this position of ultimate influence is that the vast majority of the electorate do not have the opportunity to either vote for them, or come to that tactically against them. Not forgetting that their leader isn't even seeking election to the UK parliament. We might as well let the Lords choose the government if this is how it is going to be decided.

To me it just doesn't feel right.

 

[larus]

Isn't it the job of all MPs to represent and promote their region/constituency? If they didn't you'd be the first to moan.

If the SNP get a pile of seats then they deserve a say. It's about time London/England had less influence. Your comment reminds me of Man U fans moaning about not winning anymore as though they have a divine right to collect trophies.

Hmm, well as England is 83.9.% of the UK population (according to wiki based on the 2011 census), I'd say that argument is very weak. Scotland is 8.4%.

 

[Soulman]

The SNP do not deserve a say, nor the right to influence English issues. Scotland, NI and Wales have their own parliaments where they can decide their OWN issues.
Your Man U comment is strange and fairly lame in relation to a very important issue that could affect the people that live in England.

 

[Hampster Gull]

I understand but I genuinely cannot see how they can use their small number of seats to navigate a separation. Nor Trident for that matter. Both are seismic UK changes which they simply will not be able to get through. The idea they can hold anyone to ransom is ridiculous. As kingmaker they will have a good negotiating hand, but ransom no. If they did piss around there will be a swift vote of no confidence and they will be out on their ear and I firmly believe with less seats/votes in a re-election.

I agree that them holding anyone to ransom is ridiculous. But the few number of seats they have count for many if Labour are dependent on them to progress their agenda. This gives them significant power and I am then linking that power to their top two objectives. Of course they hold the risk of losing support if they abuse their position but these are impressive politicians and they will position the breakdown as a westiminster issue not an snp issue. They lost the separation vote but within months might have c97% of scottish westminster seats. A well positioned fall out after deliverying some wins for scotland might give them more momentum in another referendum

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Hmm, well as England is 83.9.% of the UK population (according to wiki based on the 2011 census), I'd say that argument is very weak. Scotland is 8.4%.

Land mass is a third though. It's a significant chunk of the UK which ever way I look at it.

 

[Bry Nylon]

Hmm, well as England is 83.9.% of the UK population (according to wiki based on the 2011 census), I'd say that argument is very weak. Scotland is 8.4%.

So what % of the UK population will be voting SNP? Between 2% and 3%? Yet they could decide who forms the next government in return for concessions? It's wrong.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Hmm, well as England is 83.9.% of the UK population (according to wiki based on the 2011 census), I'd say that argument is very weak. Scotland is 8.4%.

Land mass is a third though. It's a significant chunk of the UK which ever way I look at it. They have recently spent more time than not being governed by a parliament 400 miles away, run by a party they don't vote for, so I think it's about time they had a stronger say in UK Politics.