[Politics] French presidential election 2022

[kemptown kid]

Macron is the first President to win a second term since 1965.

Apart from Mitterand and Chirac...

 

[Weststander]

RE Macron, there's a whiff of Blair with a 20 year delay, although that's a little unfair on Blair
RE EU and identitarian right, yes, they've managed to elevate this as a key issue and cluster all sorts of other issues around it
RE traditional socialism: everything about that is dead or dying: heavy industry, the manual collectivised working class, macho unions, the policy framework, etc
RE party political structure: the postwar duopoly is over in much of Europe. It happened first in Italy and Austria, but has been even more rapid and stark in France
RE left: it's become more plural and (like the right) often too focused on identity. It's yet to identify an economic vision that can unite its various parts. Until it can, we'll continue to drift and be subjected to escalating levels of unpleasantness.

The one BIG positive I have is that I think the overwhelming majority of people in the UK, France, even Russia are pleasant people, with decent values. Holding civilisation together. And that’s unchanged, I see it in most young people.

The unpleasantness is from a noisy minority who try to dominate, whether that be some politicians, thugs, Putin, Trump or Orban.

 

[Guinness Boy]

One of those uncomfortable truths that will soon be forgotten, similar to how very few spoke about white women voting for Donald Trump, because it doesnt fit the narrative.

Votes?

Isn't it all pre-determined in the Big Lodge? Or is this an uncomfortable truth that has happened despite the whole thing being controlled by a centuries long plan owned by "two hundred or so families"?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Apart from Mitterand and Chirac...

Their second term wasn’t consecutive. He was the first sitting president to win again since the 60s.

 

[Weststander]

Votes?

Isn't it all pre-determined in the Big Lodge? Or is this an uncomfortable truth that has happened despite the whole thing being controlled by a centuries long plan owned by "two hundred or so families"?

… who are by and large Jewish.

 

[Swansman]

Votes?

Isn't it all pre-determined in the Big Lodge? Or is this an uncomfortable truth that has happened despite the whole thing being controlled by a centuries long plan owned by "two hundred or so families"?

It is pre-determined yes.

The voting figures may be correct but it does'nt matter when you control both sides. The real clever move was to create this universal model of the "left-right" spectra, removing all nuance and effectively making a lot of people optionless as we've all been told its a waste of a vote to vote for something we might believe more in than anything on the left-right spectra. From the creation of that system there was no problem to divide people into two sets that could never unite. Divide and rule.

Indeed part of the plan.

 

[Weststander]

Their second term wasn’t consecutive. He was the first sitting president to win again since the 60s.

Mitterand was re-elected in 1988 and Chirac in 2002.

I think you might be referring to being re-elected, but without a PM/government of the same party as the newly elected president.

 

[Machiavelli]

The one BIG positive I have is that I think the overwhelming majority of people in the UK, France, even Russia are pleasant people, with decent values. Holding civilisation together. And that’s unchanged, I see it in most young people.

The unpleasantness is from a noisy minority who try to dominate, whether that be some politicians, thugs, Putin, Trump or Orban.

Although this isn't a direct response to this post, it follows on from comments in this thread. Thoughts on this?

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...haring-french-election-uk-first-past-the-post

 

[Weststander]

Although this isn't a direct response to this post, it follows on from comments in this thread. Thoughts on this?

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...haring-french-election-uk-first-past-the-post

It’ll be especially tricky in the UK, as Sturgeon would demand an immediate independence referendum as the one conditon.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/09/sturgeon-toughens-stance-on-labour-and-independence-vote

I’m a fan, I liked the maturity shown by both parties 2010-2015, against all know-it-alls predictions it held together. Elsewhere, it can leave to parliamentary chaos (Italy).

 

[Machiavelli]

It’ll be especially tricky in the UK, as Sturgeon would demand an immediate independence referendum as the one conditon.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/09/sturgeon-toughens-stance-on-labour-and-independence-vote

I’m a fan, I liked the maturity shown by both parties 2010-2015, against all know-it-alls predictions it held together. Elsewhere, it can leave to parliamentary chaos (Italy).

Could add Germany to your Coalition example.
I'd ignore the SNP thing for now -- note that article was +2 years old. They've gone very, very quiet on independence. The other week I asked John Denham -- who has now become one of the leading academics on English nationalism -- on why this is, and he thinks it's largely down to economics -- after a certain exit from a union, the myriad issues that feed into the economy (currency, oil/energy, trading relationships, etc) will be centre-stage in any future Scottish independence referendum. Note also that the one thing Sturgeon wants is another Tory(-led) government, because then the SNP can present this as the norm.
If Starmer was bold, which I doubt he will be, he'd enter into alliance with the Lib Dems (and Caroline Lucas) to produce a proposal for widespread constitutional (New Labour were genuinely radical on this) and electoral reform. That'd be far more preferable than governing with a small (or even no) majority, where every policy would be beholden to emboldened Labour backbenchers.
All of this is another way of endorsing Kettle's point which is flagged up in the title (but was barely covered in that article) that Labour's future prospects of governing alone are far more limited now with the (for me, welcome) pluralisation of the UK and its party politics. If they accept that (and Starmer ought to be bright enough to recognise it, for all that he'll studiously avoid the issue while campaigning), then they'll have to push for electoral and/or constitutional reform.

 

[Weststander]

Could add Germany to your Coalition example.
I'd ignore the SNP thing for now -- note that article was +2 years old. They've gone very, very quiet on independence. The other week I asked John Denham -- who has now become one of the leading academics on English nationalism -- on why this is, and he thinks it's largely down to economics -- after a certain exit from a union, the myriad issues that feed into the economy (currency, oil/energy, trading relationships, etc) will be centre-stage in any future Scottish independence referendum. Note also that the one thing Sturgeon wants is another Tory(-led) government, because then the SNP can present this as the norm.
If Starmer was bold, which I doubt he will be, he'd enter into alliance with the Lib Dems (and Caroline Lucas) to produce a proposal for widespread constitutional (New Labour were genuinely radical on this) and electoral reform. That'd be far more preferable than governing with a small (or even no) majority, where every policy would be beholden to emboldened Labour backbenchers.
All of this is another way of endorsing Kettle's point which is flagged up in the title (but was barely covered in that article) that Labour's future prospects of governing alone are far more limited now with the (for me, welcome) pluralisation of the UK and its party politics. If they accept that (and Starmer ought to be bright enough to recognise it, for all that he'll studiously avoid the issue while campaigning), then they'll have to push for electoral and/or constitutional reform.

SNP - I think Sturgeon’s still obsessed, it’s her/their raison d’etre. For now Johnson’s seen her out, as well as the distraction of the pandemic. It will be back on the agenda very soon imho.

Electoral reform always interests me.

- I’d love to see the complete end of the House of Lords, in fact any unelected chamber and any chamber full stop. I’m not swayed by the checks and balances argument, and certainly not by CoE officials plus old mates of ex-prime ministers. The great and the good, baloney. They deserve no more power than you or I.

- First past the post in each Commons constituency, I’ve followed this issue forever. I understand you’re attraction for its end - I presume you envisage no Tory government ever again. But Labour are determined not to cede any seats to Plaid Cymru, Greens or LibDems. The ‘progressive alliance’ is only in the minds of devout Tory haters / those three other parties. Labour folk from Blair to Corbyn won’t give it up. They also like the idea of having an overall majority, from just 42% of the vote.

My personal view, I can see the benefits of both the current system and PR.

 

[Machiavelli]

SNP - I think Sturgeon’s still obsessed, it’s her/their raison d’etre. For now Johnson’s seen her out, as well as the distraction of the pandemic. It will be back on the agenda very soon imho.

Electoral reform always interests me.

- I’d love to see the complete end of the House of Lords, in fact any unelected chamber and any chamber full stop. I’m not swayed by the checks and balances argument, and certainly not by CoE officials plus old mates of ex-prime ministers. The great and the good, baloney. They deserve no more power than you or I.

- First past the post in each Commons constituency, I’ve followed this issue forever. I understand you’re attraction for its end - I presume you envisage no Tory government ever again. But Labour are determined not to cede any seats to Plaid Cymru, Greens or LibDems. The ‘progressive alliance’ is only in the minds of devout Tory haters / those three other parties. Labour folk from Blair to Corbyn won’t give it up. They also like the idea of having an overall majority, from just 42% of the vote.

My personal view, I can see the benefits of both the current system and PR.

Given that the Tories have governed for 70 out of the last 100 years, I don't see PR as a magic wand that will extinguish them. That'd be daft. They're deeply engrained within (especially) England, which is a deeply conservative (small c) country. Scottish independence will only accentuate that.
It's far more strategic for Labour, rather than the (growing) smaller parties, I'd say. Labour can't govern in the UK without Scotland (at least not with a majority big enough to get the necessary legislation through). I can't see them getting Scotland back, either through independence or, more likely, the continuation of the SNP command of Scottish politics.

 

[Weststander]

Given that the Tories have governed for 70 out of the last 100 years, I don't see PR as a magic wand that will extinguish them. That'd be daft. They're deeply engrained within (especially) England, which is a deeply conservative (small c) country. Scottish independence will only accentuate that.
It's far more strategic for Labour, rather than the (growing) smaller parties, I'd say. Labour can't govern in the UK without Scotland (at least not with a majority big enough to get the necessary legislation through). I can't see them getting Scotland back, either through independence or, more likely, the continuation of the SNP command of Scottish politics.

Agree on all points.

Unregulated social media has added to the complex picture.

Most people read the room wrong at the last GE, seeing it as a panacea because 100,000’s of teens and twenties were posting relentlessly pro-Corbyn/anti-Tory, giving the false impression of a red wave on Twatter, YouTube and Facebook.

It’s very much a double sided coin. I know many folk who are pro-Brexit, pro-Trump, some conspiracy theorists who use those platforms as a sauce of info. Some ex-Labour! Quite frightening really, but they would call it freedom of speech. My point is that it’s hardening the views of a very large rump of the UK electorate.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Steady on lads. I might have to rename this the "reasonable and intelligent debate thread".

It'll never catch on

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Agree on all points.

Unregulated social media has added to the complex picture.

Most people read the room wrong at the last GE, seeing it as a panacea because 100,000’s of teens and twenties were posting relentlessly pro-Corbyn/anti-Tory, giving the false impression of a red wave on Twatter, YouTube and Facebook.

It’s very much a double sided coin. I know many folk who are pro-Brexit, pro-Trump, some conspiracy theorists who use those platforms as a sauce of info. Some ex-Labour! Quite frightening really, but they would call it freedom of speech. My point is that it’s hardening the views of a very large rump of the UK electorate.

This twitter account predicted the last election spot on.

https://twitter.com/socintuk?t=3kO-J0tfTeTaEOdjOrIW_Q&s=09

I'll be looking at them in a couple of years time when we get another national vote.


They take too gloomy a view on geo-politics, which I mostly ignore, but their election modelling is excellent.

 

[Weststander]

This twitter account predicted the last election spot on.

https://twitter.com/socintuk?t=3kO-J0tfTeTaEOdjOrIW_Q&s=09

I'll be looking at them in a couple of years time when we get another national vote.


They take too gloomy a view on geo-politics, which I mostly ignore, but their election modelling is excellent.

Interesting, thanks.

I was referring to the tidal wave of tweets/FB/YT posts during the GE campaign. It was overwhelmingly pro Corbyn. Not me, but many politicised folk I know thought a Tory win out of the question, based on that tidal wave.

Some political/election scientists mentioned it a couple of months later, where I think they said it was probably down to a narrow, young age group (and just part of that age group) posting relentessly. Giving the false impression of a red wave.

 

[LamieRobertson]

I see Macrons had his wings clipped ..his party no longer having an overall majority

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61859595

 

[Weststander]

I see Macrons had his wings clipped ..his party no longer having an overall majority

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61859595

The BBC's excellent Paris correspondent, Hugh Schofield, reported this morning that this spells 5 difficult years ahead for Macron. Both the left and right parties, who fared well, detest Macron.

HS predicted possible new elections later this year, should Macron's bills collapse in parliament.