Facts: for the remainder of this season

[shaolinpunk]

edit: Never mind, misunderstood the point someone was trying to make

 

[StonehamPark]

75 Points is a fair target for a team to finish in 6th place.
We're currently on 42 points with 18 games to go (one is missing from the below?)
This means we need to aim for 33 points in these 18 games = 1.8 points per game.
We have so far averaged 1.5 points per game (last 28 games).

In the simplest terms, we need to win between 10-12 games out of the 18 remaining to hope for a top 6 place.
It is also worth noting that we have won just 10 games in the last 28 We are now aiming for at least 10 wins in the last 18.

1. Sheff Wed v Brighton Sat 2 Feb 15:00
3. Brighton v Hull Sat 9 Feb 17:20
5. Brighton v Blackburn Tue 12 Feb 19:45
7. Cardiff v Brighton Tue 19 Feb 19:45
9. Brighton v Burnley Sat 23 Feb 15:00
11. Brighton v Huddersfield Sat 2 Mar 15:00
13. Bristol City v Brighton Tue 5 Mar 19:45
15. Bolton v Brighton Sat 9 Mar 15:00
17. Brighton v Crystal Palace Sun 17 Mar 12:00
19. Nottm Forest v Brighton Sat 30 Mar 15:00
21. Brighton v Charlton Tue 2 Apr 19:45
23. Brighton v Leicester Sat 6 Apr 15:00
25. Middlesbrough v Brighton Sat 13 Apr 15:00
27. Peterborough v Brighton Tue 16 Apr 19:45
29. Brighton v Blackpool Sat 20 Apr 15:00
31. Leeds United v Brighton Sat 27 Apr 15:00
33. Brighton v Wolves Sat 4 May 12:45

 

[WhingForPresident]

What was enough for 7th? We only have to beat 7th by a point, not 6th.

7th places were:

2011/12- 70
10/11- 72
09/10- 69
08/09- 74
07/08- 70
06/07- 74

10 wins and 4 draws from our last 18 should all-but guarantee a play-off place. That's going to take some doing though, obviously.

 

[Rich Suvner]

Here's some facts

Average points from games against:
Top 6 - 4pts from 7 games (0.5 pts/game)
The rest - 22pts from 15 games (1.5pts/game) including 10 draws
Bottom 6 - 16pts from 6 games (2.7pts/game)

I think it's pretty clear we're still a team that is building and establishing ourselves in top half. Not sure a promotion push is in our interests this season.


edit:

Using a crude projection of existing performance we would accrue an additional 25 points from 17 games - who is the missing game against?
Which would leave us on approximately 67 points.

 

[JOLovegrove]

75 Points is a fair target for a team to finish in 6th place.
We're currently on 42 points with 18 games to go (one is missing from the below?)
This means we need to aim for 33 points in these 18 games = 1.8 points per game.
We have so far averaged 1.5 points per game (last 28 games).

In the simplest terms, we need to win between 10-12 games out of the 18 remaining to hope for a top 6 place.
It is also worth noting that we have won just 10 games in the last 28 We are now aiming for at least 10 wins in the last 18.

1. Sheff Wed v Brighton Sat 2 Feb 15:00
3. Brighton v Hull Sat 9 Feb 17:20
5. Brighton v Blackburn Tue 12 Feb 19:45
7. Cardiff v Brighton Tue 19 Feb 19:45
9. Brighton v Burnley Sat 23 Feb 15:00
11. Brighton v Huddersfield Sat 2 Mar 15:00
13. Bristol City v Brighton Tue 5 Mar 19:45
15. Bolton v Brighton Sat 9 Mar 15:00
17. Brighton v Crystal Palace Sun 17 Mar 12:00
19. Nottm Forest v Brighton Sat 30 Mar 15:00
21. Brighton v Charlton Tue 2 Apr 19:45
23. Brighton v Leicester Sat 6 Apr 15:00
25. Middlesbrough v Brighton Sat 13 Apr 15:00
27. Peterborough v Brighton Tue 16 Apr 19:45
29. Brighton v Blackpool Sat 20 Apr 15:00
31. Leeds United v Brighton Sat 27 Apr 15:00
33. Brighton v Wolves Sat 4 May 12:45

Barnsley away.

I think the 10 we could win would be Wednesday, Blackburn, Burnley, Huddersfield, Bristol, Charlton, Peterborough, Blackpool, Wolves and Barnsley. Tough ask for a few of them though.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

3 results to go our way, then we can believe

Brighton AWAY WIN at sheffield Wednesday
Millwall HOME WIN vs Hull
Brighton HOME WIN vs Hull

2 points maximum off playoffs after that.

 

[drew]

fact

Pronunciation: /fakt/

Definition of fact

noun

a thing that is known or proved to be true: the most commonly known fact about hedgehogs is that they have fleas [mass noun]: a body of fact

•
(facts) information used as evidence or as part of a report or news article: even the most inventive journalism peters out without facts, and in this case there were no facts

•
(the fact that) used to refer to a particular situation under discussion: despite the fact that I’m so tired, sleep is elusive

•
[mass noun] chiefly Law the truth about events as opposed to interpretation: there was a question of fact as to whether they had received the letter



So, I would surmise that the OP is talking a load of bollocks. Even if we beat Cardiff and win the remaining 17 games, it is not a fact that we will win the league. Could it be that some Cardiff fan somewhere is posting on a forum that if they don't beat Brighton away, they won't win the league!!!!

 

[les dynam]

I still fancy us to finish second. I really do. Ulloa's signing changes everything. We're going to start humping teams at home and playing out controlled victories away. We were superb on Saturday, it's really coming together. Other than Cardiff, nobody has shown any consistency. It's still right up for grabs!

 

[Hillian1]

FACKT.

There are 9 home league games left, at an average of 5 pints in the stadium per game that's 45 more pints @ £3.90 (- 10%) = £157.95.

Doing my bit to reduce the 8 million.

 

[Return of the Rev]

ANYONE FANCY PREDICTING THE HOME CROWDS FOR HE REST OF THE SEASON?


Sheff Wed v Brighton Sat 2 Feb 15:00
Brighton v Hull Sat 9 Feb 17:20
Brighton v Blackburn Tue 12 Feb 19:45
Cardiff v Brighton Tue 19 Feb 19:45
Brighton v Burnley Sat 23 Feb 15:00
Brighton v Huddersfield Sat 2 Mar 15:00
Bristol City v Brighton Tue 5 Mar 19:45
Bolton v Brighton Sat 9 Mar 15:00
Brighton v Crystal Palace Sun 17 Mar 12:00
Nottm Forest v Brighton Sat 30 Mar 15:00
Brighton v Charlton Tue 2 Apr 19:45
Brighton v Leicester Sat 6 Apr 15:00
Middlesbrough v Brighton Sat 13 Apr 15:00
Peterborough v Brighton Tue 16 Apr 19:45
Brighton v Blackpool Sat 20 Apr 15:00
Leeds United v Brighton Sat 27 Apr 15:00
Brighton v Wolves Sat 4 May 12:45

 

[Chris001]

The following is definitely stating the obvious, and for many, may seem far to simplistic, however:-

We have 18 games left.

If we lose them all, we will be relegated.
If we win 9 of them, we will make the play offs
If we win 14 of them, we will get promoted automatically
If we win 16 of them, we will win the league (as long as one of those wins is against Cardiff)
If we lose or draw to Cardiff, but will the remaining 17 games, we will also win the league.

The above assumes, we will draw one third of the games we don't win.

Gus said we need 75 points to make the play offs, he said that on 28th Dec.

That means we need another 33 points from our remaining 18 games, 1.833 points per game. We currently have 1.5 points per game, keep that up and we will end up on 69 points.

Fixture mix:
Feb, 3 home and 3 away
Mar, 2 home and 3 away
Apr, 3 home and 3 away
May, 1 home

Our home form is key, we have to win the majority if not all of those (27 points available). Also reckon March will make or break us, only 2 out of 5 games are at home and one of those is Palace.

So far, we have drawn too many games and we must convert those into 3 points. I think we'll get very close and fingers crossed we can sneak 6th place.

 

[chucky1973]

we have won 10 of 28!! which is about 34% win rate, take that forward we are going to win 6 more games! not enough for the play offs this year.

 

[Twinkle Toes]

Oh I say!

 

[Notters]

Here's some facts

Average points from games against:
Top 6 - 4pts from 7 games (0.5 pts/game)
The rest - 22pts from 15 games (1.5pts/game) including 10 draws
Bottom 6 - 16pts from 6 games (2.7pts/game)

I think it's pretty clear we're still a team that is building and establishing ourselves in top half. Not sure a promotion push is in our interests this season.


edit:

Using a crude projection of existing performance we would accrue an additional 25 points from 17 games - who is the missing game against?
Which would leave us on approximately 67 points.

Interesting stats, but completely irrelevant, I would say, as they are pre-Ulloa stats. He could be turning most/all of our draws in to wins from now on; or he could have little effect, but we don't know either way.

 

[Birdie Boy]

I still fancy us to finish second. I really do. Ulloa's signing changes everything. We're going to start humping teams at home and playing out controlled victories away. We were superb on Saturday, it's really coming together. Other than Cardiff, nobody has shown any consistency. It's still right up for grabs!

I think there are enough footballers in court at the moment without the rest of them being done for having sex in a public place and 27,000 fans arrested for voyuerism!

 

[Rich Suvner]

Interesting stats, but completely irrelevant, I would say, as they are pre-Ulloa stats. He could be turning most/all of our draws in to wins from now on; or he could have little effect, but we don't know either way.

I'd agree Ulloa has the potential to make a difference, but to simply dismiss these stats as completely irrelevant is a bit much. The fact is that the better teams know how to constrict our style of football. Ulloa will undoubtedly give us a different and more direct option and enable us to join up midfield and attack more, but he will also be finding his way in the game here. 5 games of our 18 games are against the top 6.

Time will tell.

 

[JOLovegrove]

I think Ulloa will be good for us, however, we cannot depend on him for the rest of the season.

 

[Mo Gosfield]

Said in a recent post that we needed 10 wins and 4 draws from 18 games ( 76 points ) I stick by that and know it is going to be a big ask. We will have to string a mini winning run together i.e 3-4 games at some stage. OK....here goes.
Sheff wed D
Hull D
Blackburn W
Cardiff L
Burnley W
Huddersfld W
Bristol C W
Bolton D
Palace D
Forest L
Charlton W
Leics D
Middboro L
Peterboro W
Blackpool W
Leeds L
Wolves W
Barnsley W
This is 9 wins 5 draws 4 defeats.....32points......74 in total.......struggling to see more than this at mo.