Denman in the Hennessy

[Billy Seagull]

Big gambler friend of mine always backs the first six in the Hennessy for the rest of the season and usually makes a mint.

Looked at this over last 5 years to see if there was anything in it:
Runs Wins Profit / Loss
2004 18 3 -10.34
2005 13 1 -4
2006 21 1 -20.05
2007 17 4 8.94
2008 19 2 7
Total 88 11 -18.45

The last two years its in profit due to 2 wins by Madison Du Berlais at 12/1 last season and a win by Knowhere in 2007/8 at 16/1. The Hennessy is often a brutal race that leaves its mark as 11 wins from 88 runs suggests. Thats is also backed up by the fact that just 8 out of the 30 horses won again that season.

Niche Market is now 25s for the National which is more than fair.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Looked at this over last 5 years to see if there was anything in it:
Runs Wins Profit / Loss
2004 18 3 -10.34
2005 13 1 -4
2006 21 1 -20.05
2007 17 4 8.94
2008 19 2 7
Total 88 11 -18.45

The last two years its in profit due to 2 wins by Madison Du Berlais at 12/1 last season and a win by Knowhere in 2007/8 at 16/1. The Hennessy is often a brutal race that leaves its mark as 11 wins from 88 runs suggests. Thats is also backed up by the fact that just 8 out of the 30 horses won again that season.

Niche Market is now 25s for the National which is more than fair.

Top statting Billy - cheers!

I'm guessing my mate might be selectively remembering the 12's and the 16's, or maybe he selectively pays attention to the going, the weights etc and withholds punts accordingly. I'll have to ask him.

 

[Hannibal smith]

I try not to get blinded by loyalty to horses but I can't see why he isn't favourite. Ran second last year after a season that never really started, and galloped Kauto Star into the ground the year before that.

We have raging debates in our pub about this. In 2008, I watched Kauto in the parade ring. He was walking around head down and if he was a human I would have classed it as man flu. His performance was listless and in the end only scraped home a few lenghts clear of Nunuphar Collanges which at level weights is nothing like the kind of performance he can produce. This year, in the parade ring he was totally different and was walking around like he owned the place. His performance followed suit.

Question I would ask is can 2008 Denman beat 2009 Kauto if they both run to that level? My money is on 2009 Kauto.

 

[Bozza]

Question I would ask is can 2008 Denman beat 2009 Kauto if they both run to that level? My money is on 2009 Kauto.

If they both get there, it's going to be one hell of a Gold Cup next year.

 

[Hannibal smith]

If they both get there, it's going to be one hell of a Gold Cup next year.

If they both make it…
If the Hennessey and Haydock races (both hard for different reasons) haven’t left their mark….
If they can run to the 2008 and 2009 levels again…..
Chances are something will happen between now and then to spoil it but if not it will be race of the decade. Throw in the mix that Imperial Commander is improving and Cooldine on times is not without a chance, you have to be a top top class 3 miler to win the big races at the moment.

On a side note, top statting Billy. I knew I read NSC for a reason.

 

[Cecil]

My money will be firmly on Kauto in March, however Denman on Saturday was very impressive.

 

[Billy Seagull]

Yes, lets hope they get there in one piece. The festival looks to be a cracker from here. The Arkle and Champion Hurdle on day 1 both look very hot races, The Champion Chase also looks good too with Master Minded being very backable at 5/2. Big Bucks looks like he just has to turn up in the Stayers and the Friday sees the Gold Cup. Shame its over 4 days and not 3 as there are a few races that don't belong at Cheltenham.

My ante post bets so far:
Celestial Halo (NAP) Champion Hurdle 16/1 & 10/1
Sizing Europe Arkle 12/1
Quantitiveeasing Ballymore 20/1