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deal or no deal



empire

Well-known member
Dec 1, 2003
11,705
dreamland
anyone see it,the bloke picked 8 blues on the spin,broke 2 records
 


















dougdeep

New member
May 9, 2004
37,732
SUNNY SEAFORD
But it's just a load of boxes. :(
 


DTES

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
6,022
London
Fragmented Badger said:
You will be converted one day, sir. It's the most compelling programme on 'the box,' with the finest TV personality of his generation, combining wit with intelligence, passion with sense, and dreams with despair. Prime Time NOW:clap: :clap: :clap:

Someone picks boxes in whatever order they feel like, then gets offered the chance to settle for less than the average amount in the remaining boxes, which anyone with any common sense says no to.

The smallest amount of intelligence can see how the offer is worked out, and that in terms of probability, you're better off keeping going.

Formulaic - painfully so. Really, what is compelling about it?
 






seagulls4eva

New member
Feb 7, 2006
53
Cumbria
DTES said:
Someone picks boxes in whatever order they feel like, then gets offered the chance to settle for less than the average amount in the remaining boxes, which anyone with any common sense says no to.

The smallest amount of intelligence can see how the offer is worked out, and that in terms of probability, you're better off keeping going.

Formulaic - painfully so. Really, what is compelling about it?


The offer is usually less than the mean, but more than the median. The average is brought up massively by the disproportionally high, high numbers.
 




DTES

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
6,022
London
seagulls4eva said:
The offer is usually less than the mean, but more than the median. The average is brought up massively by the disproportionally high, high numbers.

Yes, exactly. Simply work out the mean, and then round down to the next round number, either in terms of hundreds or thousands depending exactly how big that mean is.

This then leaves, for a simple example, a 1/3 chance of getting 4x your money. Anyone should take this - it's the same principle as, say, being offered 1000/1 on West Ham winning the FA Cup this season. They're far from favourites with Chelsea and Liverpool left in, but you couldn't turn down odds like that. It's not such a dramatically large skewing I realise, but it is the same principle.
 


Cheeky Monkey

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
23,620
It's bollogs, as Douglas Deep says it's a load of boxes. You could condense that show into 15 minutes, or save your sanity by just watching the last 10 minutes. All that holding hands crap between the contestants etc. - this is the UK not the frickin US of A! Like the other contestants really give a shit about whether the person in the middle wins or not! I think it hit an all time low this week when Noel Edmonds said "I was talking to the dealer this morning and he said he thought you'd be the one playing today..." What?!





Not that I watch it you understand ;)
 


Cheeky Monkey

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
23,620
Oh and the £250k will never be won because who in their right mind when offered £85k by the banker with two boxes left (one of which is the £250k) is going to gamble that £85k on a 50/50 chance? Even if the last two boxes were the two highest scoring boxes out there you're still going to take the banker's offer.
 
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DTES

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
6,022
London
Cheeky Monkey said:
Oh and the £250k will never be won because who in their right mind when offered £85k by the banker with two boxes left (one of which is the £250k) is going to gamble that £85k on a 50/50 chance? Even if the last two boxes were the two highest scoring boxes out there you're still going to take the banker's offer.

Really? That's my point though, because the offer is dropped below the average, the odds are in your favour, and you should carry on....
 




n1 gull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
4,639
Hurstpierpoint
Cheeky Monkey said:
Oh and the £250k will never be won because who in their right mind when offered £85k by the banker with two boxes left (one of which is the £250k) is going to gamble that £85k on a 50/50 chance? Even if the last two boxes were the two highest scoring boxes out there you're still going to take the banker's offer.

I agree, so I think the banker should offer something like £20k not £85k, then see the contestant sweat.
 


Cheeky Monkey

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
23,620
n1 gull said:
I agree, so I think the banker should offer something like £20k not £85k, then see the contestant sweat.

The thing is though C4 don't want to risk that player going no deal and having the £250k box though, which is why a 'damage limitation' offer has to be relatively attractive (not that £20k isn't mind)
 


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