Crewe by-election official thread

[The Clown of Pevensey Bay]

Hazel Blears has said on the telly that Labour are going to lose.

Some Tory websites are talking about a majority for them of 5,000. Given that Labour previously had a majority of 7,800, this would be a MASSIVE result for them.

 

[vulture]

Hazel Blears has said on the telly that Labour are going to lose.

Some Tory websites are talking about a majority for them of 5,000. Given that Labour previously had a majority of 7,800, this would be a MASSIVE result for them.

Just watched question time...Hazel Blears is a little stuck up ginger shit

 

[coventrygull]

Hazel Blears has said on the telly that Labour are going to lose.

Some Tory websites are talking about a majority for them of 5,000. Given that Labour previously had a majority of 7,800, this would be a MASSIVE result for them.

Why would it be? labour and the Conservatives are the same party. One day people might wake up and see the con

 

[Brighton Breezy]

Would indeed be a big result but not sure anyone can say it wasn't exactly expected.

No doubt tomorrow's press will be full of stories about Labour heading for general election SPANKING...

...however the BIG vote is a long way off and I'm pretty confident Cameron, Boris and co can mess things up before then.

 

[vulture]

Would indeed be a big result but not sure anyone can say it wasn't exactly expected.

No doubt tomorrow's press will be full of stories about Labour heading for general election SPANKING...

...however the BIG vote is a long way off and I'm pretty confident Cameron, Boris and co can mess things up before then.

Labour is in the same mess as the tories back in 95...they are f***ed

 

[Brighton Breezy]

Blair took a KICKING in the polls over the oil crisis, foot in mouth a SQUILLION other things but the voters managed to forget by the time the election came round and I don't expect anything much different next time round.

People are happy to PROTEST vote but will soon realise they are better off with Labour when they see the MESS the tories make of the local councils...

 

[vulture]

Blair took a KICKING in the polls over the oil crisis, foot in mouth a SQUILLION other things but the voters managed to forget by the time the election came round and I don't expect anything much different next time round.

People are happy to PROTEST vote but will soon realise they are better off with Labour when they see the MESS the tories make of the local councils...

Richie

Under Labour council tax has gone up 1000%....so has all taxes...Blair was a great TORY leader but Brown is now being found out and I will bet any money with you that if Brown is in charge he will lose the next general election.

 

[eastlondonseagull]

Why would it be? labour and the Conservatives are the same party. One day people might wake up and see the con

Sadly, you're right.

.

 

[Brighton Breezy]

Im not a Brown fan by any stretch of the imagination. Just making the point there is a LONG way to go yet before a general election.

Oh and anyone who says the tories and labour are the same needs to pay more attention to politics.

 

[vulture]

Im not a Brown fan by any stretch of the imagination. Just making the point there is a LONG way to go yet before a general election.

Oh and anyone who says the tories and labour are the same needs to pay more attention to politics.

Blair got out at the right time....no matter who the pm is now they will lose the next election due to house prices crashing,high fuel bills,high council tax,the 10p tax rate etc

 

[Al Bion]

Well my vote has been cast

Suprisingly few people about today canvassing for votes, in fact the only person in Crewe town centre was Flying Brick of the Monster Raving Loonies. I have heard though that Labour has bussed in loads of party workers to try and encourage any voters they have left to come out and vote.

Met Edward Timpson, the tory, a few days ago - he seemed a really nice guy. Several labour diehards I know have said they're going to vote for the Lib Dem so I think she'll probably do ok and others won't vote at all rather than not vote labour.

Seems like a landslide victory for the tories though

 

[bigc]

Problem with politics is we always try to link past trends into now, for example, is Brown at Major's 1991 or 1995?

What you also must remember about by-elections is that the Tories didn't win ONE between 1989 till 1999, Hague won Richmond in 1989, till Portillo got back in during 1999 in Alan Clarke's old seat.

Despite that...it's a pretty sound dismissal of Gordon Brown as a leader, in the eyes of an electorate.

The most worrying thing is they are comparing this to Eastbourne 1990... Luckily they aren't mentioning HIS name

 

[The Clown of Pevensey Bay]

What you also must remember about by-elections is that the Tories didn't win ONE between 1989 till 1999, Hague won Richmond in 1989, till Portillo got back in during 1999 in Alan Clarke's old seat.

Wrong, I'm afraid. John Randall won Uxbridge for the Tories in 1997. But it was ROCK SOLID Conservative.

Anyway -- tonight's turnout in Crewe was 58.2pc. That's MASSIVE for a by-election -- the second highest for a by-election since 1997, in fact.

 

[bigc]

Wrong, I'm afraid. John Randall won Uxbridge for the Tories in 1997. But it was ROCK SOLID Conservative.

Anyway -- tonight's turnout in Crewe was 58.2pc. That's MASSIVE for a by-election -- the second highest for a by-election since 1997, in fact.

I do apologise, I had always been lead to believe Portillo was the first by-election success.

Despite that, they did lose EVERY one for 8 years from Richmond till Uxbridge, even rock solid ones, throughout the 1990s.

 

[Easy 10]

Just watched question time...Hazel Blears is a little stuck up ginger shit

However, she DID give us a stadium.

 

[bigc]

However, she DID give us a stadium.

And didn't mess up the letter

 

[Lord Bracknell]

Isn't this the first Tory win in a by-election in a seat formerly held by Labour for THIRTY years?

If you can see a "trend" in a result like that ... you are a genius.

 

[Juan Albion]

Bit disappointed in the votes for The Flying Brick. Clearly the candidate most suited to the House of Commons.

 

[The Clown of Pevensey Bay]

1 CREWE & NANTWICH
C gain from Lab
Edward Timpson (C) 20,539 (49.49%, +16.93%)
Tamsin Dunwoody (Lab) 12,679 (30.55%, -18.29%)
Elizabeth Shenton (LD) 6,040 (14.55%, -4.03%)
Mike Nattrass (UKIP) 922 (2.22%)
Robert Smith (Green) 359 (0.87%)
David Roberts (Eng Dem) 275 (0.66%)
The Flying Brick (Loony) 236 (0.57%)
Mark Walklate (ND) 217 (0.52%)
Paul Thorogood (CTDP) 118 (0.28%)
Gemma Garrett (ND) 113 (0.27%)
C maj 7,860 (18.94%)
17.61% swing Lab to C
Electorate 71,963; Turnout 41,498 (57.67%, -2.34%)
2005: Lab maj 7,078 (16.28%) - Turnout 43,485 (60.00%)
Dunwoody (Lab) 21,240 (48.84%); Moore-Dutton (C) 14,162 (32.57%);
Roberts (LD) 8,083 (18.59%)

 

[The Clown of Pevensey Bay]

CREWE PROJECTION WOULD GIVE MASSIVE TORY COMMONS MAJORITY
By Chris Mead, PA Elections Editor
David Cameron would cruise into Downing Street with a Commons majority over 300
if the Crewe and Nantwich swing was repeated over the country at the next
General election.
A forecast calculated by PA gives Tories 493 seats, Labour 102, Liberal
Democrats 26, others 29.
The figures take into account boundary alterations affecting most
constituencies.
The forecast is calculated using as a baseline notional results of how the 2005
General Election would have gone if the changes had been in force then.
These have been produced by Plymouth University experts Professors Colin
Rallings and Michael Thrasher for PA, BBC, ITN and Sky News.
The Crewe result provides insufficient data on the possible performance of
minor parties which "won" 29 notional seats last time.
They are therefore projected to have held those but not gained any more.
This probably underestimates the extent of Labour's disaster as in its current
state it could expect losses against the Scottish National Party and Plaid
Cymru.
end

230252 MAY 08