Clegg's three bolt rule

[glasfryn]

Clegg won't even get a sniff of proportional representation from the tories




case closed

 

[Publius Ovidius]

Whatever the outcome of the next few days, IMO Brown is finished.

THere is NO WAY the Liberals will do a deal with the Labour Party and prop Brown up as a PM.

He wasn't elected last time, he certainly hasn't been elected this time.

But we don't elect the leader of a party, we elect a party who have a leader.

 

[supaseagull]

Lab + Lib = 315
Con + DUP = 314
Sinn Fein won't attend so it's down to the nats.

Suddenly, Alex Salmond can decide how Britain is run. Talk about the tail wagging the dog!

The SDLP share the labour whip as well so +4 seats to that

 

[ridda]

The tories will never agree to PR as they will never get into power again,
so a Coalition with the Lib Dems is a nonstarter

 

[BensGrandad]

The tories will never agree to PR as they will never get into power again,

On that basis nobody will agree with PR as no party will ever geta majority of seats.

 

[ridda]

On that basis nobody will agree with PR as no party will ever geta majority of seats.

"Some may say no bad thing"

 

[Theatre of Trees]

Lab + Lib = 315
Con + DUP = 314
Sinn Fein won't attend so it's down to the nats.

Suddenly, Alex Salmond can decide how Britain is run. Talk about the tail wagging the dog!

SDLP from Northern Ireland always sides with Labour which would put the Lib-Lab total up to 319.


Sinn Fein is minus 5 seats plus the speaker and his opposition deputy which means you only need a majority from 643 which is 322 to govern, the balance of power would devolve down to the 6 SNP, 3 Welsh nationalists, 1 green and 1 Alliance from Northern Ireland.

 

[Cian]

Alliance at least previously (1997/2001 elections) intended to share whip with the Lib Dems.

 

[fataddick]

Would likely be a National Government, with Labour, Lib Dem, SDLP, Alliance, SNP, Cymru and possibly the Greens.

Make sense to give SNP the Secretary of State for Scotland role, ditto PC/Wales and SDLP/Ulster, and Lucas as Environment Minister (although a longer shot) would play well.

Milliband or Johnson as PM, Clegg as Deputy. Would like to see Cable as Chancellor, but can't see it - Libs would get a few high profile ministerial positions though.

 

[fataddick]

A National Government also helps spread the blame out for all the savage cuts that need to be made, so it would probably be a good thing all round.

 

[Gully]

Just turned on News24 and they are showing live pictures from outside the building where Nick Clegg is meeting the Lib Dem MPs, there is a crowd of about 1000 people demonstrating for electoral reforms.

At the moment it looks peaceful, they are calling for Nick to come out and speak with them, not sure how it is going to pan out...but I would suspect that he will make electoral reform one of the key bargaining points in any deal whatsoever with either Cameron or the Labour party.

 

[RexCathedra]

We may never see another Tory government.

From your lips to God's ears, but as a rule God is not that kind.

 

[DerbyGull]

f*** coalitions, it's desperate and an insult to those who voted for Lib Dem. Plus i'm sure it would spell the end for Lib Dems if they shacked up with either parties.

Instead Cameron to run a minority gov't and in 12 months time ANOTHER election.

This man replaces GB as labour leader and Labour win by a landslide 12 months from now.

 

[Gully]

The beeb had a quote from Billy Bragg, saying that he thought Milliband would become PM on Thursday, this kind of implies that the Lib Dems won't get what they want from the Tories and then go with Labour on condition of them dumping GB.

 

[DerbyGull]

Interesting

 

[SussexHoop]

The problem with involving the SNP, PC & the Greens is they will all insist on additional spending for their pet projects at a time when everyone accepts swingeing cuts are on the way.

It will be a fragile government and there will be a strong risk of another election in the next 12 months. Voters are not renowned for looking favourably on those who force them into voting so soon after an election so that could backfire on all those involved.

The advantage of a Con-Lib coalition is it gives a good majoirty and reduces the risk of another election in 12 months. The advantage of that for Labour is the rumours are the cuts required are so savage, whoever is in power may find it almost impossible to get re-elected at the next election.

 

[beorhthelm]

The beeb had a quote from Billy Bragg, saying that he thought Milliband would become PM on Thursday,

from my limited understanding of Labour leadship rules, thats fairly unlikly. Brown has to resign and then Harman. then the NEC would appoint an interim leader - would they pick Milliband? if they did, would he be subject to challenge in the next party conference? would Milliband want to risk being seen as *another* unelected leader of the Labour party?


Derbygull's scenario sounds more likly, let the Tories run as a minority, regroup and prepare for the next election which will be in the next 12-18 mth regardless of what happens this week.

 

[Gully]

I would have thought Billy Bragg might be in touch with the rules of the Labour party, he has supported them for years, red wedge and all that.

I guess it depends on how much Labour want to stay in power, whether Gordy would be prepared to fall on his sword to meet the demands of Clegg and the Lib Dems, even then they still wouldn't have a majority between them.