Clegg now calling it a '2 horse race'

[Lord Bracknell]

The Labour support is now back to the levels of the dark days under Michael Foot.

... and Cameron failing to win outright makes him the worst Tory Leader since ... who?

The Earl of Derby in 1847?

 

[beorhthelm]

It is both a product of FPTP AND the historical lack of support.

what im driving at is the FPTP creates an imbalance at a *national* level, not in each individual seat. for each seat, its down to the local support going out to vote and FPTP mkes no difference. I'm not sure how the swing-o-meters work, they seem to translate polling into seats based on historical patterns and assumptions of how seats vote in relation to the national "norm". but if theres a fundemental shift in the voting patterns, surely its quite possible for them to be wrong and Liberals can make more seats up than expected.

 

[nwgull]

The various pollsters have made estimates on the wavering vote and the max possible percentage of each party (no idea what their methods are), and the range for credible libdem portion of the popular vote is between 20-40%. Tory and Labour have much narrower ranges, I think the tories is something like 32-38 and labour about 5-6% lower.

 

[Shanker45]

Forget tactics. Forget hung parliaments. Just vote Lib Dem. For the first time in decades it's not a wasted vote - so just do it.

I have to be honest and say I have voted Labour in the past but no more. A few weeks ago I would say I was a genuine floating voter.

I thought DC came across well last night on the debate but so little detail coming out from them on policy. I just can't vote for a party that appears to put the interests of the top earners ahead of the majority of the population. Bushy and co feel free to prove me wrong but for some reason the Tories just scare me....George Osborne in particular

"I agree with Nick" now I think......

 

[simmo]

... and Cameron failing to win outright makes him the worst Tory Leader since ... who?

The Earl of Derby in 1847?

Er no, I would say William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard!

 

[simmo]

Forget tactics. Forget hung parliaments. Just vote Lib Dem. For the first time in decades it's not a wasted vote - so just do it.

Yep, just vote LIB DEM don't ever forget how they tried for years and years using tax payers money to destroy our football club. Bravo Lib Dems:US:

 

[beorhthelm]

... for some reason the Tories just scare me....George Osborne in particular

i think thats quite widely held view about Osborne. but there is many suggestions he'll be moved aside in the event of the Tories forming a government. he was an idea man, but the main thing he championed (flat rate tax) was dumped, so what he got to input.

 

[Harty]

Assuming the Tory vote remains at about 35%, the only way the Lib Dems can get more seats than Labour is for them to poll as many votes as the Tories AND for the Labour vote to collapse to 21% - which would need about one in four of Labour's CURRENT supporters (as of today) switching to the Lib Dems before next Thursday.

Con 35% - 297 seats
LibDem 35% - 166 seats
Lab 21% - 153 seats
Others 9% - 16 seats
N Ireland - 18 seats

UK Polling Report

Which clearly won't happen.

Having heard Clegg on the news at 5, and seen him in action last night, I still think he won't work with Cameron and that the deal with Labour will involve Gordo falling on his sword.

Say if the Lib dems poll roughly the same amount % as Labour but becuase of the boundaries labour still get more seats which party will be the 'alpha male' in the coalition?

Mark Ward mocked me, in a nice way, when I said David Milliband could yet be the next incumbnet in No10, well stranger things have happened.

 

[Gully]

Yep, just vote LIB DEM don't ever forget how they tried for years and years using tax payers money to destroy our football club. Bravo Lib Dems:US:

Much as everyone hates the Lib Dem MP for Lewes, not without good reason, he was representing everyone in his constituency...who is to say that his protest wasn't being driven by people lobbying him who had voted for other parties, not necessarily the Lib Dems. To judge all MPs and members of a political party on the basis of one who was a cretin is hardly fair...look at the Lib Dem policies and if you think they are the best for the country as a whole then that should decide who you vote for.

 

[Gully]

Having heard Clegg on the news at 5, and seen him in action last night, I still think he won't work with Cameron and that the deal with Labour will involve Gordo falling on his sword.

Say if the Lib dems poll roughly the same amount % as Labour but becuase of the boundaries labour still get more seats which party will be the 'alpha male' in the coalition?

It looks more likely than ever that we will get a hung Parliament, this time next week the Queen will have to ask someone to form a Government...if I have my facts right. This will either mean continuing with Labour, who will more than likely finish with the second highest number of seats held by one party, or some form of coalition being formed.

Nick Clegg could make a massive gamble here and not go into coalition with anyone, thus leaving Labour to go into Government as a minority party. This would probably mean we have another election in the autumn or possibly next spring as it would be an untenable situation. His gamble could be that Labour become so unpopular and fail completely, thus virtually destroying them as a party and returning us to the status quo of two main political parties, one left and the other right of centre...only this time it would be the Tories and the Lib Dems...big risk to take but it could propel his party to a level unseen for almost a century.

 

[nwgull]

Much as everyone hates the Lib Dem MP for Lewes, not without good reason, he was representing everyone in his constituency...who is to say that his protest wasn't being driven by people lobbying him who had voted for other parties, not necessarily the Lib Dems. To judge all MPs and members of a political party on the basis of one who was a cretin is hardly fair...look at the Lib Dem policies and if you think they are the best for the country as a whole then that should decide who you vote for.

This. You should cast your vote on national issues and/or local issues, so fair enough if you live in Lewes and don't want to vote Baker. However if you don't live in Lewes, then why base your vote on what was a local issue in another constituency (and nothing to do with Libdem party national policies)?

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Yep, just vote LIB DEM don't ever forget how they tried for years and years using tax payers money to destroy our football club. Bravo Lib Dems:US:

And therein lies the dilema ! Vote with the heart I would vote UKIP, vote to rid us of Labour I would vote Tory, vote with the head and I'd vote Lib Dem.

If it wasn't for LDC, Baker and Be***ti and I wouldn't have an issue voting Lib Dem this election.

Oh the choices

 

[Jim D]

Simply put, if you are the second most popular candiadate in every seat you will have no MP's but quite possibly the second highest share of the popular vote.

I'm not debating the fairness of FPTP - I'd just like Jim D to provide the source for his comment. I would be staggered if Clegg had made this claim - "He expects to win more seats than Labour."

Edit: this appears to be the report - no mention ofmore seats - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/

When asked the direct question he starts by saying 'almost certainly' and the BBC website said...

Asked if he believed he could win more seats than Labour he told the BBC his party was "going for gold".

I'm not sure what other interpretation you can make. He believes it.

 

[Gully]

...at least he has avoided repeating that cringeworthy statement made by David Steele..."go back to your constituencies and prepare for Government!"