Chance of Snow next week

[Papa Lazarou]

All,

Consider this an early warning.

As you may or may not know, Meteorology is one of my hobbies...

And from that, I thought I'd pop in here and give you all a heads-up.

There is a chance (nothing more at present) that ealr next week we will see a change to very cold easterly winds, with heavy snow. It's something I've been watching for a week or so, and the forecast models are finally starting to form a concensus on the likely outcome.

This is currently being modelled to occur from Monday onwards, but may be delayed slightly.

This animation is not my own work, but shows the latest GFS model prediction... with the cold air and snow coming on from the East.

The main 3 forecast models are (currently) all showing a very wintry scene for early next week:

UK Met Office

European Model

US Model (they also do a Precipitation Type chart - worth a look)

Worth keeping an eye on, as this sort of setup could be around for up to 10 days if it occurs as currently forecast, with sub-zero day time temps and lots of snow.

Of course, it could all 'go tits up' and turn out either cold and dry, and rainy... but you never know.

Papa

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

I like your predictions more than Gareths.

Yours come with graphics and sense.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I like your predictions more than Gareths.

Yours come with graphics and sense.

Thanks. I could have posted this any time over the last 3 or 4 days, but I don't want to 'go to press' too early... i'd say that we're 90% there for an easterly feed off the continent (models all agree on this). What will make or break this spell, in terms of cold air and snow is how the Scandinavian High and the low over Iberia position themselves.

The low will act as a support for the High, stopping it sinking into Europe, and the intensity (of the Low) will dictate the pressure gradient, and therefore the speed of the wind (which will affect the temperature).

A lot could change before Monday, but I'm hopeful that we might see some proper snowfall down here from this. If it does occur as per the models above, then it will be similar to Feb 1991.. which was very cold (although West Sussex missed out on the utter snow-fest that time).

Papa

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Thanks. I could have posted this any time over the last 3 or 4 days, but I don't want to 'go to press' too early... i'd say that we're 90% there for an easterly feed off the continent (models all agree on this). What will make or break this spell, in terms of cold air and snow is how the Scandinavian High and the low over Iberia position themselves.

The low will act as a support for the High, stopping it sinking into Europe, and the intensity (of the Low) will dictate the pressure gradient, and therefore the speed of the wind (which will affect the temperature).

A lot could change before Monday, but I'm hopeful that we might see some proper snowfall down here from this. If it does occur as per the models above, then it will be similar to Feb 1991.. which was very cold (although West Sussex missed out on the utter snow-fest that time).

Papa

How are you at horse racing tips?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

How are you at horse racing tips?

Shit.

 

[dannyboy]

im excited
so if it kicks off like you think it may papa, how much would you predict we get?

 

[Black Country Seagull]

Bugger my birthday on Saturday and was hoping for snow, just like the old days when it always snowed on my birthday

 

[Gritt23]

Whey hey ..... *dusts off the sledge*

Could we have it when I'm not at work? Please!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Whey hey ..... *dusts off the sledge*

Could we have it when I'm not at work? Please!

when's that?

 

[Jim D]

Do you mean that the Peterboro game next Tues may be like the one up there about 20 years ago? That should be fun in the South Stand.

 

[SurreySeagulls]

The doesn't stop US

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Do you mean that the Peterboro game next Tues may be like the one up there about 20 years ago? That should be fun in the South Stand.

Yes, complete with Pancake races and Perry Digweed in goal.

 

[Black Country Seagull]

Snow mounds for goal kicks?

 

[dannyboy]

how much how much!!!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

how much how much!!!

Hard to say - but, if you look at this site:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/rart_frame.htm

And click on the Prec Type title in the top right, you can click through the forecast by 6 hour slots. IF it comes off, we will be in the firing line for a prolonged period of snow.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

It WILL NOT snow next week. No chance.

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

It WILL NOT snow next week. No chance.

Sledges out everybody .....................

 

[Peteinblack]

So my missus can look forward to a few inches, then. :yahoo:

Seriously though, I'm also into meteorology, and the BBC's online 5 day synoptic chart (weather map to non-meteorologists) also shows high presure building over Scandinavia from Friday owards, with a strong easterly wind setting in.

It's often these easterlies from Russia which give us our coldest winter weather and heaviest snow.

Bring it on!

 

[Djmiles]

Great, the week we are predicted snow I go away for the week, typical.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

It WILL NOT snow next week. No chance.

Ok.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=203&FILE=awa

Just out of interest US, where do you get your medium range forecast information from?