[Football] "Brighton Struggle to Score Goals" Cliche

[Coldeanseagull]

Don't worry, Percy Tau has a new song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X78i13q-atk&ab_channel=inventorr77

 

[The Fits]

[tweet]1348646990725443584[/tweet]

I think it's fair to say that even Sheffield Untied would be top half with both Kane and Son.
They're a particular anomaly as, according to xG, Son and Kane are the two best finishers in the entire world over the last 4 seasons.

 

[PortuGull]

Some good analysis there.

Because we have a poor conversation rate it adds to the illusion that we can’t score goals even though we can. If we had an average conversion rate would would be well over 30 goals and probably at least 6 points better off. We are also joint 2nd for hitting the woodwork, in another season half of those could have easily gone in. It’s all small margins.

With a better conversation rate we wouldn’t have to worry too much about the amount of goals we concede, but you could also say we wouldn’t have to worry about our conversation rate if we didn’t concede as many. At the moment, both those things are going against us, it can easily turn around.

The conversation rate is improving as we speak with the arrival of Percy Tau The Lion of Judah and his contingent

 

[Guinness Boy]

should be " Brighton struggle to score enough goals"

For the chances we create , we shouldnt have to worry about the fragility of our defence

I largely agree with this. At the moment we need to be two up before we can even begin to relax.

It would be interesting to know what our goals per game with and without Lamptey playing is (no, I don't have time) because it feels like 3CBs / 2 WBs is built purely around him, and yet it patently does not suit our Centre Backs, Dunk in particular who hasn't settled in the middle of a three and is no longer allowed to act as a quarter back for non existent wingers and so has to ping it 5 yards sideways or back to the keeper.

 

[Stato]

I largely agree with this. At the moment we need to be two up before we can even begin to relax.

It would be interesting to know what our goals per game with and without Lamptey playing is (no, I don't have time) because it feels like 3CBs / 2 WBs is built purely around him, and yet it patently does not suit our Centre Backs, Dunk in particular who hasn't settled in the middle of a three and is no longer allowed to act as a quarter back for non existent wingers and so has to ping it 5 yards sideways or back to the keeper.

Average score with Lamptey in the team is a 1.27 to 1.36 loss. Without him a 1.16 to 1.83 loss. We've averaged 0.9 points per game with him in the side and 0.67 points per game without him. The teams we have played in both sets of games have a closely comparable league position at the time of playing, so the quality of opposition is not really a factor. Stats seem to support that he may be a significant absence, but perhaps surprisingly given the media view of him, his impact seems more of a factor in our defending than in our attacking.

 

[Audax]

surprised we've scored 21, more than most in the bottom half. certainly feels like we've scored fewer.

5 of those are penalties. If you ignore penalties, our conversion rate is bottom 5 in the league, and there's other stats you can look at that say the same: we're one of the 5 most wasteful teams currently when it comes to converting good attacking play into goals.

Yes, the main difference between us and Man City is they are conceding fewer than us. But there's a bigger story, and it's about consistency: we're consistently wasting chances that would win us matches. Other teams, on the other hand, are up and down. Newcastle are probably our closest match currently, but they've had games where they've put the goals away and won, and others where they've been terrible and lost. That plays out in our W/D/L stat: No other team in the league has as many Draws as we do. It's not even close once the numbers are standardised (teams have played between 15 and 18 games):

Draw percentage:

- We've drawn 47.1% of our games.
- Liverpool next on 35.3%

Loss percentage?

- We've lost 41.2%. Yeah, it's not great. But it's not bad either - it's mid-table.
- There's 8 teams who've lost a higher percentage than us. Eight. And we're equal with Palace on that stat.

OK, 8 isn't enough to put us top-10. But it is enough to put us, theoretically, safe from relegation. If only we could actually win the games we dominate. We play well enough in attack, on a consistent basis, to score more goals than we do. And if we did, the occasionally leaky defence wouldn't be a problem. If our defence was truly dire, we'd be in far worse shape slumming it with West Brom and Sheffield.

Anyway: our season isn't irretrievable. I do think we need a striker. And probably a rethink on defending against set pieces. But then, we had that problem with Hughton as well in phases.

I still think the story of our season is this:

1. We're pretty good between the boxes.
2. We don't convert enough of the chances we create.
3. We concede too easily against set pieces.

So if I was to build a priority order for the club to look to ensure our survival in the second half of the season:

1. Sign a quality striker in the January window and send them straight into the team.
2. Find a quality forwards coach.
3. Find a quality set piece defence coach.

We can live without 2 and 3 if we can land 1 IMO. In the absence of 1, we need both 2 and 3. I'd keep Potter as Manager / Head Coach, but I'd make jolly sure he's got the support staff under him.

 

[Super Steve Earle]

It also explains why we have so few virus cases as there are so few goal celebrations.

I think you've missed the point

 

[Super Steve Earle]

We all know that our conversion rate is poor and that our actual goals scored is well below our Xg. However, I'm starting to get totally sick of the lazy punditry that uses 'they play well but can't score goals' as the one line platitude expected to explain a very complex situation in a soundbite. We know that every team in the world would like to score more goals than they do, but this statement seems to be being applied to us and only us. Its annoying, because although it is a criticism that could be directed at us, it is not the most appropriate criticism of us and we are not the team that the criticism best applies to.

In simple goals scored - We are 12th with 22, Fulham, WBA, Burnley & Sheff Utd all have less than 15; https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/clubs/goals
In terms of goals per game - We are 13th, scoring on average approximately twice as many goals per game than the bottom three performers; https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england&tid=d
In terms of games where we fail to score - We are joint 9th with 4, level with Chelsea, Leicester & Southampton; https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england&tid=z
In terms of conversion rate - We are 15th, a place below Manchester City; https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/chancenverwertung/wettbewerb/GB1

Compare this with other stats that tell the story of our season and it suggests that the continued concentration on 'they can't score goals' is distracting from our real problems:

We are 16th in goals conceded: https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/clubs/goals_conceded
17th for goals conceded per game; https://footystats.org/england/premier-league/goals-conceded-table
Joint 15th for goals conceded from set pieces; https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/2...amStatistics/England-Premier-League-2020-2021
Joint last for penalties conceded: https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/2...amStatistics/England-Premier-League-2020-2021

We know that we can't win games at home. We consistently find ways to draw games that we should win both home and away. There is a thread on here about the short amount of time that we hold onto a lead for. We're fourth from bottom on the number of fouls we commit, which may not be helping the number of set piece goals we concede. We are the leakiest team in the league in terms of how many chances it takes to score against us: https://experimental361.com/2020/12/26/scatter-graphics-premier-league-22-dec-2020/. We are also last in terms of team save percentage: https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/keepers/Premier-League-Stats.

Our position is frustrating as we are so close to being an effective team in this league. My own frustration is being added to by so many in the media consistently misdiagnosing our failings after a cursory glance at some highlights. I'm sorry about the stats overload, but thanks for giving me somewhere to vent. I've sensed from a couple of his comments that Potter is also a bit fed up with this being trotted out every time he faces the media. It can't be easy to instill the confidence needed to avoid self fulfilling prophecy in our attacking players, when nearly everyone with a shilling to earn from punditry is recycling the same simplistic rebuke.

'Brighton just can't score goals!' They say. Perhaps we need to respond with Ben Goldacre's mantra 'I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that.'

Great post. I nearly posted the same, but without the wonderful stats. I wonder how long before the BT Sport generalist churns out the same twaddle if we don't score in the first half.

 

[Stato]

5 of those are penalties. If you ignore penalties, our conversion rate is bottom 5 in the league, and there's other stats you can look at that say the same: we're one of the 5 most wasteful teams currently when it comes to converting good attacking play into goals.

Yes, the main difference between us and Man City is they are conceding fewer than us. But there's a bigger story, and it's about consistency: we're consistently wasting chances that would win us matches. Other teams, on the other hand, are up and down. Newcastle are probably our closest match currently, but they've had games where they've put the goals away and won, and others where they've been terrible and lost. That plays out in our W/D/L stat: No other team in the league has as many Draws as we do. It's not even close once the numbers are standardised (teams have played between 15 and 18 games):

Draw percentage:

- We've drawn 47.1% of our games.
- Liverpool next on 35.3%

Loss percentage?

- We've lost 41.2%. Yeah, it's not great. But it's not bad either - it's mid-table.
- There's 8 teams who've lost a higher percentage than us. Eight. And we're equal with Palace on that stat.

OK, 8 isn't enough to put us top-10. But it is enough to put us, theoretically, safe from relegation. If only we could actually win the games we dominate. We play well enough in attack, on a consistent basis, to score more goals than we do. And if we did, the occasionally leaky defence wouldn't be a problem. If our defence was truly dire, we'd be in far worse shape slumming it with West Brom and Sheffield.

Anyway: our season isn't irretrievable. I do think we need a striker. And probably a rethink on defending against set pieces. But then, we had that problem with Hughton as well in phases.

I still think the story of our season is this:

1. We're pretty good between the boxes.
2. We don't convert enough of the chances we create.
3. We concede too easily against set pieces.

So if I was to build a priority order for the club to look to ensure our survival in the second half of the season:

1. Sign a quality striker in the January window and send them straight into the team.
2. Find a quality forwards coach.
3. Find a quality set piece defence coach.

We can live without 2 and 3 if we can land 1 IMO. In the absence of 1, we need both 2 and 3. I'd keep Potter as Manager / Head Coach, but I'd make jolly sure he's got the support staff under him.

Good knowledge in there thanks. Perhaps we should be lobbying for a return to 2 points for a win. Under that system we would be above Burnley on GD and within one win of Newcastle.

Having watched the Newport game, I'm a bit amazed that our penalty taking is improving our conversion rate.

 

[Falmer Wizard]

Ha yeh, and Arsenal have been linked with Bissouma

A decent player however at present i cant see him replacing players in the elite group at the top of the table

 

[Poyningsgull]

I think you've missed the point

I think you've missed the humour

 

[Bry Nylon]

We all know that our conversion rate is poor and that our actual goals scored is well below our Xg. However, I'm starting to get totally sick of the lazy punditry that uses 'they play well but can't score goals' as the one line platitude expected to explain a very complex situation in a soundbite. We know that every team in the world would like to score more goals than they do, but this statement seems to be being applied to us and only us. Its annoying, because although it is a criticism that could be directed at us, it is not the most appropriate criticism of us and we are not the team that the criticism best applies to.

In simple goals scored - We are 12th with 22, Fulham, WBA, Burnley & Sheff Utd all have less than 15; https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/clubs/goals
In terms of goals per game - We are 13th, scoring on average approximately twice as many goals per game than the bottom three performers; https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england&tid=d
In terms of games where we fail to score - We are joint 9th with 4, level with Chelsea, Leicester & Southampton; https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england&tid=z
In terms of conversion rate - We are 15th, a place below Manchester City; https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/chancenverwertung/wettbewerb/GB1

Compare this with other stats that tell the story of our season and it suggests that the continued concentration on 'they can't score goals' is distracting from our real problems:

We are 16th in goals conceded: https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/clubs/goals_conceded
17th for goals conceded per game; https://footystats.org/england/premier-league/goals-conceded-table
Joint 15th for goals conceded from set pieces; https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/2...amStatistics/England-Premier-League-2020-2021
Joint last for penalties conceded: https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/2...amStatistics/England-Premier-League-2020-2021

We know that we can't win games at home. We consistently find ways to draw games that we should win both home and away. There is a thread on here about the short amount of time that we hold onto a lead for. We're fourth from bottom on the number of fouls we commit, which may not be helping the number of set piece goals we concede. We are the leakiest team in the league in terms of how many chances it takes to score against us: https://experimental361.com/2020/12/26/scatter-graphics-premier-league-22-dec-2020/. We are also last in terms of team save percentage: https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/keepers/Premier-League-Stats.

Our position is frustrating as we are so close to being an effective team in this league. My own frustration is being added to by so many in the media consistently misdiagnosing our failings after a cursory glance at some highlights. I'm sorry about the stats overload, but thanks for giving me somewhere to vent. I've sensed from a couple of his comments that Potter is also a bit fed up with this being trotted out every time he faces the media. It can't be easy to instill the confidence needed to avoid self fulfilling prophecy in our attacking players, when nearly everyone with a shilling to earn from punditry is recycling the same simplistic rebuke.

'Brighton just can't score goals!' They say. Perhaps we need to respond with Ben Goldacre's mantra 'I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that.'

Pat Nevin just delivered a text book "Brighton struggle to score goals" analysis of BHA ahead of his punditry gig at tonight's game on BBC 5 Live.

So I took the liberty of copying the above and emailing it to Mark Chapman in the studio, suggesting he put a few of these points to Nevin in their half-time discussion. He probably won't but it would be fun if he did.

 

[Bry Nylon]

Pat Nevin just delivered a text book "Brighton struggle to score goals" analysis of BHA ahead of his punditry gig at tonight's game on BBC 5 Live.

So I took the liberty of copying the above and emailing it to Mark Chapman in the studio, suggesting he put a few of these points to Nevin in their half-time discussion. He probably won't but it would be fun if he did.

Well, **** me, he just read it out on the radio at fulltime and challenged Pat Nevin on it....

Plus he named-checked North Stand Chat.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Average score with Lamptey in the team is a 1.27 to 1.36 loss. Without him a 1.16 to 1.83 loss. We've averaged 0.9 points per game with him in the side and 0.67 points per game without him. The teams we have played in both sets of games have a closely comparable league position at the time of playing, so the quality of opposition is not really a factor. Stats seem to support that he may be a significant absence, but perhaps surprisingly given the media view of him, his impact seems more of a factor in our defending than in our attacking.

They don't call you Stato for nothing. Fair play

 

[Perkino]

There are a conveyor belt of managers who are hired by clubs in a relegation battle, they historically benefit from 'a new manager bounce' which lasts a few games. If Potter were to be replaced we would undoubtedly change our formation, become defensively more solid and win a game or two. It would undo years of building.

I wish Potter would address our defensive unit as it could be the basis for a significantly better 2nd half to the season

 

[Stato]

Well, **** me, he just read it out on the radio at fulltime and challenged Pat Nevin on it....

Plus he named-checked North Stand Chat.

Thanks for letting me know. I've just listened to it. Unfortunate timing to ask the question now given that we had to change our style and dig in a bit tonight. When we do that we know we can defend. It's the over extending that makes us vulnerable. Hopefully, Potter will take note and revert back to the solid base with counter attacking that saw us pick up away points at the end of last season.

Chapman didn't make the first point that our goalscoring is not quite as bad as everyone keeps saying it is. We were playing against the best defence in the country tonight, so it was always going to be hard for the attackers. There is definitely a lot of nervousness there with too many of them wanting to be creator rather than taking a shot. I'm starting to think that Trossard's the key. If one just goes in for him, he's capable of trying for and getting more.

 

[b.w.2.]

We all know that our conversion rate is poor and that our actual goals scored is well below our Xg. However, I'm starting to get totally sick of the lazy punditry that uses 'they play well but can't score goals' as the one line platitude expected to explain a very complex situation in a soundbite. We know that every team in the world would like to score more goals than they do, but this statement seems to be being applied to us and only us. Its annoying, because although it is a criticism that could be directed at us, it is not the most appropriate criticism of us and we are not the team that the criticism best applies to.

In simple goals scored - We are 12th with 22, Fulham, WBA, Burnley & Sheff Utd all have less than 15; https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/clubs/goals
In terms of goals per game - We are 13th, scoring on average approximately twice as many goals per game than the bottom three performers; https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england&tid=d
In terms of games where we fail to score - We are joint 9th with 4, level with Chelsea, Leicester & Southampton; https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england&tid=z
In terms of conversion rate - We are 15th, a place below Manchester City; https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/chancenverwertung/wettbewerb/GB1

Compare this with other stats that tell the story of our season and it suggests that the continued concentration on 'they can't score goals' is distracting from our real problems:

We are 16th in goals conceded: https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/clubs/goals_conceded
17th for goals conceded per game; https://footystats.org/england/premier-league/goals-conceded-table
Joint 15th for goals conceded from set pieces; https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/2...amStatistics/England-Premier-League-2020-2021
Joint last for penalties conceded: https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/2...amStatistics/England-Premier-League-2020-2021

We know that we can't win games at home. We consistently find ways to draw games that we should win both home and away. There is a thread on here about the short amount of time that we hold onto a lead for. We're fourth from bottom on the number of fouls we commit, which may not be helping the number of set piece goals we concede. We are the leakiest team in the league in terms of how many chances it takes to score against us: https://experimental361.com/2020/12/26/scatter-graphics-premier-league-22-dec-2020/. We are also last in terms of team save percentage: https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/keepers/Premier-League-Stats.

Our position is frustrating as we are so close to being an effective team in this league. My own frustration is being added to by so many in the media consistently misdiagnosing our failings after a cursory glance at some highlights. I'm sorry about the stats overload, but thanks for giving me somewhere to vent. I've sensed from a couple of his comments that Potter is also a bit fed up with this being trotted out every time he faces the media. It can't be easy to instill the confidence needed to avoid self fulfilling prophecy in our attacking players, when nearly everyone with a shilling to earn from punditry is recycling the same simplistic rebuke.

'Brighton just can't score goals!' They say. Perhaps we need to respond with Ben Goldacre's mantra 'I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that.'

Your first sentence shows why what the pundits are saying is 100% correct. Potter’s answer? Play zero strikers for the third time. Lose for the third time. Moronic.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[portlock seagull]

We struggle to win matches and will be relegated if that continues. that’s all there is to it really.

 

[Stato]

Your first sentence shows why what the pundits are saying is 100% correct. Potter’s answer? Play zero strikers for the third time. Lose for the third time. Moronic.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

My post was intended to deflect the misguided abuse coming at Neal Maupay and his colleagues. i think that they are getting criticism that their peers at other clubs around us are not getting. However, it's quite a leap to say that, had one of them been selected over Percy, we'd have got our first ever points at The Ethiad. Considering Sunday's 120 minutes and Leeds on Saturday night, Potter's selection was pretty much spot on. You may have noticed that the team that won the game also started with no recognised central striker. Is Pep Guardiola moronic too?

 

[TheBigUnit]

Well, **** me, he just read it out on the radio at fulltime and challenged Pat Nevin on it....

Plus he named-checked North Stand Chat.

Amazing


There was me thinking NSC was only for complete Albion anoraks ...!