Clearly MASSIVE don't.
Hooper
Rhodes
Forestieri
Fletcher (no fee but £££££ wages)
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Brighton, Strikers and Moneyball - a hypothesis
- Thread starter Kalimantan Gull
- Start date
Clearly MASSIVE don't.
Hooper
Rhodes
Forestieri
Fletcher (no fee but £££££ wages)
MASSIVE are going for the Moneybollocks theory instead.
Otherwise known as "The Derby Way".
I would imagine it already does. For anything to work in an algo based methodology you simply have to assign any attribute a number within a set range of integer values.
In FM there are 'hidden' numerical values such as temperament and big game performance (ability to handle pressure) so it seems logical that this would form part of the real world analysis and evaluation.
These qualities have the benefit of being qualitative as well so that's where the manager and coaching staff's intuition and experience counts even more and why the human decision is always going to be the final decision maker in many cases.
This encountered massive resistance in baseball until the relative success of Billy Bean with the Athletics as the old school jobs for the boys network wouldn't believe that any kind of statistical analysis could counter human hunches.
I find it fascinating and love that we were perhaps pioneering in the use of such methodology thanks to TB's stoic faith and mathematical genius.
I saw it as cognition.
QUOTE: Introduction to psychometric tests
Psychometric tests are a standard and scientific method used to measure individuals' mental capabilities and behavioural style. Psychometric tests are designed to measure candidates' suitability for a role based on the required personality characteristics and aptitude (or cognitive abilities). They identify the extent to which candidates' personality and cognitive abilities match those required to perform the role. Employers use the information collected from the psychometric test to identify the hidden aspects of candidates that are difficult to extract from a face-to-face interview (= watching a player).
http://www.psychometricinstitute.com.au/Psychometric-Guide/Introduction_to_Psychometric_Tests.html
PS: I play chess and analyse the games afterwards. In short impressions during the game vary from what objectively happens. This is how the crowd sees the games.
It is very possible for the crowd to see an exciting win, when the game is littered with
1) elementary mistakes
2) missed opportunities
Just like football.
Get carried away with the action and participation. Confidence can win games I shouldn't and lose games that I should win.
Better experts will analyse differently as well, but usually the mistakes are obvious and the missed opportunities not so at my level. Decision making in combat.
warmleyseagull
Well-known member
Yes, trouble was that he forgot the theory was to avoid having THE weakest player on the pitch, so we got 6...
warmleyseagull
Well-known member
Any match thread since NSC began will have ample evidence of this...
warmleyseagull
Well-known member
Or the Chelsea or Man City way...if you are going to throw money at it, throw it big.
I have also seen Moneyball. The reason why Oakland were successful using the moneyball method was that they found a gap in the market. They realised that some players were vastly undervalued as people were looking at the wrong statistic. You could bet that after that season a lot of teams copied what Oakland did. This would have meant that the players that were undervalued before would be more expensive now that other teams were using the same statistical model. Every team use statistics in some shape or form but to do what Oakland did using just numbers again, in any sport, is highly unlikely.
Charlies Shinpad
New member
In the book one of the scouts states that he is one to watch but a strange thing in his game is which foot he used to his position in the team
But remember this book was published when we had Burke in charge and Gus was manager so obviously things have changed quite a bit since then
Interesting thing is though when the scout says he watches a player the whole game and most of the time he has no idea what the result of the game is as he is assessing body language etc of the player for 90 minutes and also they reckoned David Moyes was the most thorough in his scouting methods etc
A great read for any footy fan in my opinion
Interesting read. In any walk of life it makes sense to do a cost/benefit analysis, or a risk/reward analysis. In fact you can power it in multi dimensions. The key thing is to define the parameters and the independent variable. WRT the latter, survival and promotion are different independent variables. . . . . different be-all for teams in different circumstances....
It boils down to this: best investment per points saved is the keeper. Best investment per points won is the centre forward. Two sliding scales can then be drawn, and then you use your judgment about where to draw the line: focusing on points saved vs won, focusing on defence vs attack (with midfield having elements of both; let's call them strangeness and charm).
Before I drown in my own bullshit, the key factor in all this is having People with Talent in charge of decision making...... right now we have that (the league table does not lie).
Right, time to watch football on the tellybox
No. They finished runner up two seasons in a row but never won it.
The reality though was that it would be the equivalent of maybe Burton Albion sneaking into the play offs, going up and then finishing second in the Premier League on the basis that their budget was by some $100m smaller than their competitors.
Success is all relative right?
Charlies Shinpad
New member
Forgot to mention that Russell Slade was told Chris Holroyd was a waste of money by the scout but he overruled him and said get him at any price and the rest is history so to speak !!
ThePompousPaladin
New member
- Apr 7, 2013
- 1,025
OT:
Reminds me of the blitz chess final i saw recently, Carlson's defence seemed intuitive and deadly.