[Politics] Brexit

[drew]

Have you got two heads?Don't know how anybody can be that dumb with only one!The point is that we trade with the USA from historical choice,not necessity.If they don't want to trade with us,who cares,apart from a lot of American jobless.They have a $6 trillion trade surplus with us-if they don't want it any more,so what?

Again, it's not clear what you are babbling on about. Are there any individual countries that we trade with out of necessity? As far as Obama is concerned, he didn't imply that if we leave they are going to stop trading with us just that we'll be starting from scratch with regard to actually reaching a trade agreement.. We can probably get anything we import from the US from other places anyway. Whether we choose to or not is down to the consumer. If US products don't sell then retailers will get them from somewhere else.

Finally, got a link to that $6 trillion trade surplus?

 

[5ways]

Surely that is a contradiction straightaway, you cannot have both you want to stay in but under special terms

Sorry I'm not sure what you're getting at. We do have it both ways and we do have special terms. We are under no obligation to join the euro.

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

Again, it's not clear what you are babbling on about. Are there any individual countries that we trade with out of necessity? As far as Obama is concerned, he didn't imply that if we leave they are going to stop trading with us just that we'll be starting from scratch with regard to actually reaching a trade agreement.. We can probably get anything we import from the US from other places anyway. Whether we choose to or not is down to the consumer. If US products don't sell then retailers will get them from somewhere else.

Finally, got a link to that $6 trillion trade surplus?

Think he means billion....

 

[drew]

by 2030 the population of this country will either be higher or possibly lower than now,if higher and if people are here working GDP will rise and if lower and GDP is slightly lower then that's less people to support......

Isn't it possible that more people could be working but producing less. If that were the case GDP wouldn't rise.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

EU trade deals:

Post-Brexit trade deals:

On occasion you post an argument for staying that is worth considering ...... this post is probably the worst b0110cks in the whole thread and a typical fear mongering lie by an inner. Please explain how all the trade deals we have currently that were arranged outside the EU jurisdiction suddenly vanish in the event of a leave vote ?

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

Isn't it possible that more people could be working but producing less. If that were the case GDP wouldn't rise.

likewise less could be working and producing more.....the Swiss seem to manage better than we do per head of population..

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2176041/On-Dave-I-Switzerland.html

 

[5ways]

On occasion you post an argument for staying that is worth considering ...... this post is probably the worst b0110cks in the whole thread and a typical fear mongering lie by an inner. Please explain how all the trade deals we have currently that were arranged outside the EU jurisdiction suddenly vanish in the event of a leave vote ?

OK you're right this is a little brusque but this point is that all our trade deals are tied together with EU trade deals. All our trade deals do suddenly vanish because we pooled our trade deal making capability with the rest of the EU. So yes, after Brexit this map will be empty. We don't have access the deals the EU has negotiated and do have to start from scratch to make new ones. We still have trade but we revert to the WTO base, with tariffs at different levels on a range of goods. The point Obama was making was something along the lines of 'we've got bigger fish to fry, but we'll get to you eventually'. It period in between would be very damaging. We would have to have teams trying to negotiate different deals with different countries at the same time.

 

[cunning fergus]

Sorry I'm not sure what you're getting at. We do have it both ways and we do have special terms. We are under no obligation to join the euro.

What special terms do we have?

 

[5ways]

What special terms do we have?

No obligation to join the Euro, now or ever.

Opt out from ever-closer-union.

Opt out of home and justice regulation.

Permanent rebate to EU budget.

Limits on in-work benefits for migrants in certain circumstances.

Special protections for the City.

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

No obligation to join the Euro, now or ever.

Opt out from ever-closer-union.

Opt out of home and justice regulation.

Permanent rebate to EU budget.

Limits on in-work benefits for migrants in certain circumstances.

Special protections for the City.

Must admit.....you do sound like you work for the Government ....I'm a blue but Dave must be the most un conservative prime minister i can remember.

 

[GT49er]

This isn't the end Leavers, I wonder what tricks they going to pull out of the bag next to scare us in to Remaining.

Osborne's already issued one thinly veiled but real threat. If the great unwashed, the Great British electorate dare to go against the wishes of the Westminster establishment and the City, he will put up income tax by 8% to punish us for being so rebellious.

 

[beorhthelm]

OK you're right this is a little brusque but this point is that all our trade deals are tied together with EU trade deals. All our trade deals do suddenly vanish because we pooled our trade deal making capability with the rest of the EU. So yes, after Brexit this map will be empty. We don't have access the deals the EU has negotiated and do have to start from scratch to make new ones. We still have trade but we revert to the WTO base, with tariffs at different levels on a range of goods. The point Obama was making was something along the lines of 'we've got bigger fish to fry, but we'll get to you eventually'. It period in between would be very damaging. We would have to have teams trying to negotiate different deals with different countries at the same time.

the trading arragments during this period would be the same as current for US (and most other non-EU countries). its pure speculation as to how long agreements would take. it may be that we decide to stay with WTO and drive that forward to global tariff free trade. ever thought of that? Obama is an outgoing President, advocating whats in the US interests (us being their eyes, ear and mouth in the EU), but with no say who is "in the queue" for trade deals after next January. 10 years could be reduced to 1 with the politcial and economic will to do so.

 

[Soulman]

Priti Patel: Let’s take back control of how our taxes are spent and vote OUT of the EU
The Employment Minister says she supports our proud nation of entrepreneurs and small businesses
I BELIEVE we can look forward to a more prosperous, more secure, and brighter future if we vote to leave the failing EU project.

This week it has become crystal clear that those campaigning to stay in the EU have only one card to play.

And that is to threaten, bully, and intimidate the British people into believing that life outside the EU would be dire.

They can’t make a positive case for remaining in the EU, because they themselves think the institution is faulty.

They can’t say that continued membership will bring benefits, so they just tell us to be fearful of change.

Well, I reject that defeatist attitude.

The truth is that the EU constrains us in all manner of ways and throws reams of red tape around British businesses.

While 6% of firms export to the EU, 100% of businesses are subject to its costly regulations, which takes money away from investment and compromises job creation.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

OK you're right this is a little brusque but this point is that all our trade deals are tied together with EU trade deals. All our trade deals do suddenly vanish because we pooled our trade deal making capability with the rest of the EU. So yes, after Brexit this map will be empty. We don't have access the deals the EU has negotiated and do have to start from scratch to make new ones. We still have trade but we revert to the WTO base, with tariffs at different levels on a range of goods. The point Obama was making was something along the lines of 'we've got bigger fish to fry, but we'll get to you eventually'. It period in between would be very damaging. We would have to have teams trying to negotiate different deals with different countries at the same time.

Even that is misleading. Nothing suddenly vanishes as we will remain in the EU after a hypothetical vote for Brexit. Only after a negotiated withdrawal settlement is reached or a two year (from triggering article 50) deadline ends do our treaty commitments stop.

 

[beorhthelm]

No obligation to join the Euro, now or ever.

Opt out from ever-closer-union.

Opt out of home and justice regulation.

Permanent rebate to EU budget.

Limits on in-work benefits for migrants in certain circumstances.

Special protections for the City.

none of those a legally binding, in the next treaty they can all disappear. and if we've just had a referendum to stay, we'll have no choice but to accept - can hardly turn them down having just accepted to remain in the EU. i dont forsee them taking a fight over £ (theres the Danes and Swedes to consider there too), and the protections for the City work to some advantages for the EU. however the limits on benefits could be recided by the end of the summer, and the others will melt away in the next treaty.

 

[cunning fergus]

No obligation to join the Euro, now or ever.

Opt out from ever-closer-union.

Opt out of home and justice regulation.

Permanent rebate to EU budget.

Limits on in-work benefits for migrants in certain circumstances.

Special protections for the City.

Well, let's be completely honest here 1 and 2 will only be legally binding if written into a new treaty. The EU have no intention of providing a discrete arrangement for UK, so these are moot at best.

I have little understanding of the 3rd albeit it is a measure of quite how deep in to the EU construct we are if we need an opt out in "home and justice". What do we get here?

The rebate is fair as a special exception to some extent, albeit I would argue the rebate is direct consequence of the EU's Byzantine funding calculations, which penalise the UK. This complexity is of course heavily influenced by the CAP, a mechanism itself that keeps farmed goods artificially high. A reason to exit on its own.

The fifth is interesting, and again links to the limits of sovereignty this country has to manage its own affairs. I would wager that the vast majority of the British public would agree with the concept that our social security system is not accessed by immigrants whether EU or non EU for a pre defined period. Cameron was not even able to deliver his manifesto promise. The reality is here that there is no exception......we are all EU citizens in the eyes of Brussels.

I don't know what special protection the City has, it has been subject to all EU legislation so far despite Osbourne trying to tone down the CRD IV and CRR. The next big changes like MiFID II have no exceptions for the City either. What are these?

 

[5ways]

Must admit.....you do sound like you work for the Government ....I'm a blue but Dave must be the most un conservative prime minister i can remember.

I'm not

 

[Two Professors]

Again, it's not clear what you are babbling on about. Are there any individual countries that we trade with out of necessity? As far as Obama is concerned, he didn't imply that if we leave they are going to stop trading with us just that we'll be starting from scratch with regard to actually reaching a trade agreement.. We can probably get anything we import from the US from other places anyway. Whether we choose to or not is down to the consumer. If US products don't sell then retailers will get them from somewhere else.

Finally, got a link to that $6 trillion trade surplus?

Try looking on the US census-and its in 1000's of million dollars,which I understand to be trillions.Or I could be pretending to be an economist,or somebody from the Remain c amp,and just plucked those figures from nowhere!

 

[drew]

Try looking on the US census-and its in 1000's of million dollars,which I understand to be trillions.Or I could be pretending to be an economist,or somebody from the Remain c amp,and just plucked those figures from nowhere!

Are you saying one thousand million dollars is a trillion?

 

[The Spanish]

Well, let's be completely honest here 1 and 2 will only be legally binding if written into a new treaty. The EU have no intention of providing a discrete arrangement for UK, so these are moot at best.

I have little understanding of the 3rd albeit it is a measure of quite how deep in to the EU construct we are if we need an opt out in "home and justice". What do we get here?

The rebate is fair as a special exception to some extent, albeit I would argue the rebate is direct consequence of the EU's Byzantine funding calculations, which penalise the UK. This complexity is of course heavily influenced by the CAP, a mechanism itself that keeps farmed goods artificially high. A reason to exit on its own.

The fifth is interesting, and again links to the limits of sovereignty this country has to manage its own affairs. I would wager that the vast majority of the British public would agree with the concept that our social security system is not accessed by immigrants whether EU or non EU for a pre defined period. Cameron was not even able to deliver his manifesto promise. The reality is here that there is no exception......we are all EU citizens in the eyes of Brussels.

I don't know what special protection the City has, it has been subject to all EU legislation so far despite Osbourne trying to tone down the CRD IV and CRR. The next big changes like MiFID II have no exceptions for the City either. What are these?

this is what I doubt. in reality a lot of people in the British electorate are happy to vote to virtue signal if it doesnt affect them directly. if a few boroughs(and real people, with real lives) take a massive hit, so be it. better that than to be thought unsophisticated.