You forgot a few things:
-10 lack of a quality Championship striker
-20 lack of a tough tackling box to box midfielder
For me that makes it 66 points and mid-table obscurity.
But I might go along with 1st if we pull our finger out and fill the two gaps in the team.
Those were problems we had last season when we finished on 66 (unless Navarro was worth 20 points a season!) So if we fix those positions I guess we'll finish on 126 points. Can't beat a bit of playground logic.