BBC and the League One relegation decider day

[clippedgull]

RELEGATION

Hereford and Cheltenham are already relegated - and two from Crewe, Carlisle, Brighton, Northampton, Hartlepool and Stockport will join them.

KEY FIXTURES
Brighton v Stockport
Bristol Rovers v Hartlepool
Carlisle v Millwall
Crewe v Leicester
Leeds v Northampton

Crewe are the most vulnerable club - their relegation will be confirmed if they fail to win against champions Leicester - but even a win would leave the Railwaymen still needing Brighton to lose, Carlisle not to win, and for Crewe to make up a four-goal swing in goal difference against Brighton, if they are to survive. Realistically, Crewe are unlikely to make up a 19-goal swing in goal difference against Northampton, even if the Cobblers lose.

Carlisle also need to win at home to Millwall to have any hope of staying up - while they also need one of their rivals to slip up. The Cumbrians would need either Brighton to fail to win, or Northampton to lose (as a draw for Northampton would leave Carlisle needing to win by a 15-goal margin), or Hartlepool to lose heavily - Pools are five goals ahead of Carlisle on goal difference.

Brighton will be safe if they can beat Stockport at Withdean - while a draw will be enough unless Carlisle win. But defeat for the Seagulls will see them relegated if either Carlisle win, or Crewe win and make up a four-goal swing in goal difference.



Northampton are safe if they win at Leeds - while a draw will realistically be good enough for them, barring the unlikely scenario that Carlisle win by an unfeasible 15-goal margin. But a defeat could see the Cobblers relegated if Carlisle win and Brighton avoid defeat.

Hartlepool are safe if they avoid defeat at Bristol Rovers. But if Pools lose, they will go down if Carlisle win (while making up a five-goal swing in goal difference), Northampton avoid defeat and Brighton win (or if Brighton draw and Hartlepool lose by seven goals).

Stockport were deducted 10 points by the Football League after going into administration on Thursday, but are realistically safe because of their goal difference. Only a win for Carlisle that makes up an unlikely 18-goal swing in goal difference against County would endanger them, while Stockport themselves would have to lose and several other results go against them.

So many permutations!!

 

[pork pie]

Don't worry about it mate!

If we win - we stay up.

We will win - we will stay up! Simples!

 

[Storer68]

Don't worry about it mate!

If we win - we stay up.

We will win - we will stay up! Simples!

our home record says that's quite a challenge

 

[Wardy]

Going to sit down later and work this out with every score from 0-0 to 4-4 for all the teams involved.

 

[cw00]

is that a different story with a full house?

 

[murraymints4brighton]

I am going for Northampton to be relegated with us and Carlisle winning. in a dream scenario following on from that Akinfenwa leaves and joins us.

 

[eastlondonseagull]

I'm pooing myself already

.

 

[Wardy]

Okay if my maths is correct then there are 81 possible permutations of scores tomorrow involving the games between Brighton, Carlisle, Crew and Northampton. I have not included Hartlepool or Stockport in this because even though they could still go down, it is unlikely to happen due to the big goal swings that will be needed.

I have it that 58 of those permutations will keep us up while 23 will send us down. That gives us a 71% chance of staying up if it was down to pure chance.

 

[drew]

anyone who is seriously worried should look at the current form table. I think you'll find us in first or second.

 

[Notters]

I am going for Northampton to be relegated, with us and Carlisle winning. in a dream scenario following on from that Akinfenwa leaves and joins us.

Have added a comma for you, makes grim reading otherwise!

 

[Wardy]

anyone who is seriously worried should look at the current form table. I think you'll find us in first or second.

Two problems with that

1. We are Brighton and manage to f*** everything up. Take Swindon for example
2. It is the last day of the season so form goes out the window

 

[Seagulls over Essex]

Nice work CLIPPED. I have printed off your analysis and am taking it to the match tomorrow.

 

[Ninja Elephant]

I am going for Northampton to be relegated with us and Carlisle winning. in a dream scenario following on from that Akinfenwa leaves and joins us.

AKINFENWA?!!!??!?!?!?!?!!!!!?!?!

 

[clippedgull]

Nice work CLIPPED. I have printed off your analysis and am taking it to the match tomorrow.

Thanks! I actually nicked it from the BBC!!!

 

[Liquidator]

You guys will only need a draw, there is 0% chance Northampton will get anything today. Hopefully we can get a couple early so you and Carlisle know exactly what you need to do.

 

[dougdeep]

Stockport, Northampton and Carlisle have big injury problems, such a shame.

 

[Wardy]

You guys will only need a draw, there is 0% chance Northampton will get anything today. Hopefully we can get a couple early so you and Carlisle know exactly what you need to do.

If you could be 10 up by 1/2 time it might help. Though I intend for us to be 3 up by then.

 

[Wardy]

Stockport, Northampton and Carlisle have big injury problems, such a shame.

Not always a blessing though. The fringe players that come in to the squad will want to prove that they are worth a place for next season.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

"Brighton will be safe if they can beat Stockport at Withdean - while a draw will be enough unless Carlisle win."

and the BBC get it wrong again - or at least not totaly complete - a draw is enough even if Carlisle win, if Northampton lose.