Are the Tories looking the likely winners at the next election?

[Larry]

No no no

 

[abc]

The Tories achilles heel(s):
- immigration. Not enough done to stem the flow
- overseas aid. Needs to be drastically cut, not increased.
- NHS reorganisation. Why keep changing things for change's sake? No thought about the cost.
- interference in foreign countries. Too slow to pull our troops out of Afghanistan.
- welfare. A mess. Too much paid out to thousands of lazy bastards.
- Europe. Another mess. Get us out.

Weaknesses yes but my point is that if the economic atmosphere is positive in a couple of years time will these issues be significant enough?

 

[00snook]

If Scotland devolve Tories are in.

The Scottish labour vote in the general election is one of the only reasons we haven't had a Tory government for years.

Wirhout their votes in the general election Labour are screwed

 

[abc]

Over the years, and I've seen a fair few now, the UK has tended to vote against a party rather than for one. In other words, if the Government is unpopular they will vote for the opposition, even though they may not really be any more popular.

With one proviso; the opposition must be seen to be creditable and electable. The Tories won a couple of elections simply because Labour was in disarray, not because the electorate preferred the Labour policies. And in the past Labour have won elections because the Tories looked a mess.

But I'm far from convinced that the current Labour party are seen as creditable and electable. To me they missed a trick when they rejected David Milliband in favour of Ed. It's too easy for the Tories to be able to depict Ed as being in bed with the unions, too old labour, and don't get me started on Ed Balls!

I think if David was the Labour leader then he would be a shoe in for the next Prime Minister, as he wouldn't frighten Middle England like his brother might. As it is he might have to wait until after the election to take over and then win the next one.

I suspect the Lib Dems will do badly being blamed - probably unfairly - for the coalition policies which (a) they didn't invent and (b) were probably necessary, but nobody ever said politics was supposed to be fair.

My own guess is that the Tories will get back in with an overall majority, especially if Cameron is able to renegotiate at least part of the deal with Europe.

But the election is a long way off. never forget two of the most appropriate quotations about politics - "A week is a long time in politics" and "Events dear boy, events"

The other factor in the Tories favour is the long time to go before the election. The chances are that things will probably be better then than they are now; maybe not a lot, and maybe not everywhere or everyone, but it is more likely they will be better than it is they will be worse. And voters have short memories.

[/B]

That is what I was getting at in my OP

 

[Ernest]

Exactly correct!

And Labour will win a landslide as people will correctly see a LibDem vote as a vote for this present government

 

[Cadiz Seagull]

[/B]

That is what I was getting at in my OP

Great minds think alike

 

[blue2]

The way things are right now Tories NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO and as for the Lib dems NEVER NEVER NEVER and the hessian weavers that is the Greens once bitten

 

[HovaGirl]

interesting one. local councils have always been responsible for local planning. central government doesnt direct housing, thats done by private devepolers or the local councils in their strategic planning, any councils not giving planning are using the same powers they had. so this is bollocks.

housing is stuck because of mortgages, beacuse the banks dont want to lend and/or people arent less certain of borrowing, combined with developers that want to make inappropriate houses (ie large 4 bed homes where 1-2 bed homes are needed) or have stock left to sell.

and it should be noted it was relying on housing market bubble to drive the economy that got us into this mess in the first place. i dont understand why anyone thinks this alone would be a solution.

With the loss of our manufacturing in the 80s, the UK main area of employment is in the service industries. In a recession, the services are the fist things to be cut down upon. What has really kept the UK economy going for almost a century, is housing, particularly during the past 50 years. Buying it, selling it, doing it up, building extensions and rooms-in-the roof, and all of this has encouraged a whole host of employment activities and associated services: solicitors; conveyancers; builders; double-glazing companies; DIY stores; garden centres; white goods shops for fancy new appliances. Every recession is good for the room-in-the-roof industry. People can't afford to move, so they increase the space they have. And while all of this little castle-building was going on, investment in housing became the new gambling activity, driving house prices ever upwards to ridiculous and unaffordable levels. Now, our youngsters are finding it almost impossible to get on the property ladder, so their income goes into the pockets of the buy-to-let brigade, who also served to drive house prices higher. In a way, it was a false economy, and now the bubble has burst, Britain has nothing left to sell. Not even its housing (except to rich Russians and Greeks).

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Looking at the economic figures released today and the soon to be stipping of the UK's AAA status there is no chance these fools will be allowed in again. No chance at all.

 

[HovaGirl]

Do you really think it makes a difference?

Very much so. Labour is the party which incites guilt. There are a surprising number of millionaires who vote Labour out of the guilt they feel because they are rich. In voting Labour, they assuage that guilt by getting the State to help the masses, with increased benefits, increased housing options, and higher taxes to pay for it all, which is the role Labour plays. But, over the years, the State income has increasingly not been enough to pay for all the State handouts, so Labour has often borrowed money from the IMF. When they raised taxes to 96% at one point, we had a brain drain and mass emigration of entrepreneurs and the wealthiest taxpayers, so ending up with less tax overall.

The Conservative party philosophy is completely the opposite. It believes in individual endeavour, and that the State is only there to cushion people short-term in times of hardship. The Conservatives believe that the more money people have in their pockets and bank accounts, the more money they will spend in shops, on services, goods and, which provides employment for people who will do the same, go out and spend their money. Hence, the Tories prefer to have lower taxes. Conversely, they want people to rely less on benefits, because people on benefits aren't paying taxes. They are taking taxes, if you like. And because they are on benefits, they spend less. And when people spend less, other people lose their jobs and go and get benefits, which is the Labour merry-go-round. The Conservatives like entrepreneurs and businessmen, because they create the jobs that people need.

Mrs Thatcher took all this to extremes. She would not bow to the miners and other strikers, and destroyed our manufacturing process in the process. However, her finance ministers cut public services to the bone, thus reducing the State bill and they ended up paying off much of the nation's debt. The economy had never been healthier than it was under the Major Government. Then along came Tony Blair and Gordon Brown who completely reversed that process and got Britain into more debt than ever, paying out more and more benefits, even to people who had never paid a penny's NI or tax and who weren't even born here. And, to top it all, Brown sold some of the nation's assets. It was stupidity in the extreme.

All Cameron is trying to do, is reverse what Labour did last time, but his hands are tied around his back by the unbelievable stupid Mr Clegg, the leader of a party which can't decide if it is Green, Labour, Tory or what, so it is a mixture of all of them, trying to please all of the people all of the time, and pleasing no one.

 

[Ernest]

Looking at the economic figures released today and the soon to be stipping of the UK's AAA status there is no chance these fools will be allowed in again. No chance at all.

Correct, they couldn't win the last election so how can they win the next ?

 

[HovaGirl]

Over the years, and I've seen a fair few now, the UK has tended to vote against a party rather than for one. In other words, if the Government is unpopular they will vote for the opposition, even though they may not really be any more popular.

With one proviso; the opposition must be seen to be creditable and electable. The Tories won a couple of elections simply because Labour was in disarray, not because the electorate preferred the Labour policies. And in the past Labour have won elections because the Tories looked a mess.

But I'm far from convinced that the current Labour party are seen as creditable and electable. To me they missed a trick when they rejected David Milliband in favour of Ed. It's too easy for the Tories to be able to depict Ed as being in bed with the unions, too old labour, and don't get me started on Ed Balls!

I think if David was the Labour leader then he would be a shoe in for the next Prime Minister, as he wouldn't frighten Middle England like his brother might. As it is he might have to wait until after the election to take over and then win the next one.

I suspect the Lib Dems will do badly being blamed - probably unfairly - for the coalition policies which (a) they didn't invent and (b) were probably necessary, but nobody ever said politics was supposed to be fair.

My own guess is that the Tories will get back in with an overall majority, especially if Cameron is able to renegotiate at least part of the deal with Europe.

But the election is a long way off. never forget two of the most appropriate quotations about politics - "A week is a long time in politics" and "Events dear boy, events"

The other factor in the Tories favour is the long time to go before the election. The chances are that things will probably be better then than they are now; maybe not a lot, and maybe not everywhere or everyone, but it is more likely they will be better than it is they will be worse. And voters have short memories.

Agree.

 

[chucky1973]

they are all as bad as each other, Tories just cleaning up Labours mess and then Labour will just enherite the current mess.

 

[Cadiz Seagull]

Maybe we should resurrect the Seagull Party, I've still got a membership card somewhere.

Bassford for PM!

 

[Hatterlovesbrighton]

The Tories achilles heel(s):
- immigration. Not enough done to stem the flow
- overseas aid. Needs to be drastically cut, not increased.
- NHS reorganisation. Why keep changing things for change's sake? No thought about the cost.
- interference in foreign countries. Too slow to pull our troops out of Afghanistan.
- welfare. A mess. Too much paid out to thousands of lazy bastards.
- Europe. Another mess. Get us out.

I'd say most of those are Achilles heels for labour rather than conservatives.

Apart from NHS (and even there they are trying to cut costs) Tory policy on these issues are more on touch with your sentiments than labour are.

 

[Lethargic]

Tory - useless
Labour - useless
Lib dem - ha ha ha
Ukip - now we are just getting silly
Greens - great idea but doesn't really work in the real world
Independents - no chance

All in all we are screwed get used to it but we will all be ruled by the Chinese soon so who cares!

 

[Glawstergull]

Okay, keep the blinkers on and concentrate on the party that isn't in power.

I though we were discussing the coalition's performance?

No blinkers just someone who everyday works long hours with massive risk to himself finacially to keep others in jobs and understands what real business means to this country.Manufaturing not supermarkets or public sector.

 

[Glawstergull]

Agree.

Agree

 

[Wally Gould]

If Labour get in next time, I'm emmigrating. Then you see what happens to the country......

Yes, room for one more! Joking aside I think they will get in next time because people have short memories. No one seems to realise most of the financial mess we are in now is due to Blair and Brown. The Tories / coalition cannot agree on anything and Cameron is only changing his spiel because of UKIP policies which would appeal to the majority of the electorate. Farage wont get in power but he can put the wind up the elected.

 

[fleet]

Unless Labour change leader before the election - then yes