clapham_gull
Legacy Fan
- Aug 20, 2003
- 25,711
Have you spoken to anyone under 30 ?
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[Politics] Tory voters- where do you go from here?
- Thread starter stewart12
- Start date
Have you spoken to anyone under 30 ?
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
A few million Reform voters? Nine years ago 3.9 million voted for UKIP. Yesterday 4.1 million voted for Reform.
Don’t let the 5 seats fool you. It’s just a quirk of FPTP.
The Grockle
Formally Croydon Seagull
Are you referring to the anti tory sentiment amongst the under 30's?
I don't think old held beliefs about Tories and Labour hold up anymore. As Boris showed, being a charismatic leader goes a long way. I bet a great deal of voters couldn't name their local MP hence my presidential comment
Hard to see where the organisation from within the Tory party is going to come from. Not too mention, all the while they allow the membership to dictate who the next leader will be they will have a disconnect from who the parliamentary party wants to lead.
The Grockle
Formally Croydon Seagull
I was really referring to the tories winning back those who voted elsewhere, Corby got more votes in 2019 than Starmer did yesterday.
Yesterday was a catastrophic failure by the tories rather than a labour 'landslide victory' IMO, labour have a lot of work to do to return to the level of support they had in 1997. John Major would have only been 100k behind Starmer in terms of votes
theboybilly
Well-known member
I think the Tories could do with getting Cameron back as Leader. It was a joy to watch him destroy Brown then Corbyn repeatedly at PMQs...every single week. He would have Starmer on toast. What an uninspiring lot Labour are. A party who can't look after it's own finances expected to look after those of Britain. Cameron gets a lot of bad press but he delivered on a Brexit referendum that Brown or Corbyn didn't and, as not being Pro-Brexit himself stood down. I happen to think that was the correct thing to do. He cannot of foreseen the utter chaos May and those that followed did that saw an unelectable Labour Party not only catch up but overtake what should have been an unassailable lead at the polls. The utter stupidity of some of the Tory actions beggars belief so much so that I don't understand true senior Tories like Ken Clark and the 1922 Committee just sacking incompetent Cabinet members. We wouldn't be here now.
As has been mentioned earlier, I too am worried for my pension. Starmer will get rid of the Triple Lock I'm convinced of it. Just let things die down and he will go against everything he said. I live in Shoreham and have never seen a Labour representative, I thought they'd given it up which shows just how bad the present Tory Party are. This was nothing but a protest vote in that it would have been very close had it not been such a low turnout and that Reform were taking so many votes. A victory is a victory but this doesn't feel like a resounding vote of confidence in Starmer & Co to me. This administration is going to be painful in so many ways. Starmer, Cooper, Lammy.....really?
As has been mentioned earlier, I too am worried for my pension. Starmer will get rid of the Triple Lock I'm convinced of it. Just let things die down and he will go against everything he said. I live in Shoreham and have never seen a Labour representative, I thought they'd given it up which shows just how bad the present Tory Party are. This was nothing but a protest vote in that it would have been very close had it not been such a low turnout and that Reform were taking so many votes. A victory is a victory but this doesn't feel like a resounding vote of confidence in Starmer & Co to me. This administration is going to be painful in so many ways. Starmer, Cooper, Lammy.....really?
As a natural Tory voter who voted Labour this time around, I say this with humility and hopefully with a big dose of realism.
Look at the voting figures, not the seat numbers in the House. In some ways Labour hardly won this election, the Tories just threw it away with incompetence, self interest and being nearly entirely dear when it came to listening to the electorate. It will take time to do two things, firstly to purge the party of idiots who believe themselves to be superior to those around them (although the result has made good headway on that front alone), and to win back the publics trust.
But it should be noted that public opinion flip flops far more quickly than ever before these days, maybe a result of the immediacy of the world we inhabit these days. I have often thought that two terms of Tory rule needs to be balanced by one term of Labour, maybe right now ten years of Labour is required. What I would suggest is do not make the error of writing off the Tories for the long term yet, they are a very resilient bunch.
Iggle Piggle
Well-known member
- Sep 3, 2010
- 5,788
Parties that stray too far from the centre never fare too well but the Tories losing the core vote to Reform will probably spook them. They will go right wing mentalist equivalent to Labour under Corbyn.
At this point I'd normally confidently predict that will give them 10 years out of office. I'm not so sure it will.
- Theres no money and nowhere to go. Starmer either this Christmas or next will be unpopular for spending too much or not spending too much. If you don't understand, ask your wife.
-Look across the pond to see how we aren't far away from Election anarchy. I don't think our mentalists are as bad - yet - but equally I'm not convinced anyone is listening to that demographic bar Reform. That demographic is also growing. I'm not sure normal rules apply anymore.
The only solid prediction I will make is that as much as I want him to succeed, Kier will be as popular as a fart in a lift by the next election.
At this point I'd normally confidently predict that will give them 10 years out of office. I'm not so sure it will.
- Theres no money and nowhere to go. Starmer either this Christmas or next will be unpopular for spending too much or not spending too much. If you don't understand, ask your wife.
-Look across the pond to see how we aren't far away from Election anarchy. I don't think our mentalists are as bad - yet - but equally I'm not convinced anyone is listening to that demographic bar Reform. That demographic is also growing. I'm not sure normal rules apply anymore.
The only solid prediction I will make is that as much as I want him to succeed, Kier will be as popular as a fart in a lift by the next election.
worthingseagull123
Well-known member
- May 5, 2012
- 2,669
Sit back and wait.
Watch things collapse under Labour.
Take things from there.
Watch things collapse under Labour.
Take things from there.
B-right-on
Living the dream
I think the Conservatives need to get in ttouch with people. The likes of BJ, Richi, Reece-Mugg, Truss and so on are so far from your average 'man in the street' that I can't see them being voted in.
Our local Cons candidate as much more 'real' - a mum of 3 with 15 years in the NHS.
Cameron was much more relatable than pretty much any PM since imo and the only reason Johnson won was because he was up against Corbyn.
Our local Cons candidate as much more 'real' - a mum of 3 with 15 years in the NHS.
Cameron was much more relatable than pretty much any PM since imo and the only reason Johnson won was because he was up against Corbyn.
SK1NT
Well-known member
The think they have two options.
Jeremy hunts leaving speech was decent. Then You have braverman… they will have to go with either centre or more right… disappointingly I reckon they will go braverman. Go more vile in order to try and get the reform voters back.
Jeremy hunts leaving speech was decent. Then You have braverman… they will have to go with either centre or more right… disappointingly I reckon they will go braverman. Go more vile in order to try and get the reform voters back.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,406
Short memories. Boris Johnson was voted in only 5 years ago. You don't need to be "common as muck" like private-school educated Sir Kier Starmer. (Yes, I do know that he started at a grammar school before it was shut down by his own party, though obviously his parents' Labour principles were too woolly to make him leave the school. )
Starmer increased the Labour share of the vote by taking mostly from the SNP, not the Tories. The lost Tory vote went to Reform, or Green, or stayed at home. Yes, there would be fiddling round the edges as all parties took a few votes from each other, and there would be votes lost to the fanatic pro-Palestinian independents. But essentially, he got no more votes than Corbyn.
Contrary to received wisdom on here, I believe that the Tories are as left wing as they have ever been. They tax more than any Labour government since Attlee, they spend ditto, they believe in immigration at levels far above any previous government of any hue. They believe in accepting EU legislation when they don't have to, they believe that criminals should not be sent to jail and should be released as early as possible if they are, they are opposed to private landlords (and by extension private tenants), and they appear to believe that all problems can be solved by more government intervention.
They need to move right, not left. They won't win votes with a policy of being just like Labour or Liberals.
clapham_gull
Legacy Fan
- Aug 20, 2003
- 25,711
And just the mistake they made after they got booted out last time.
Fascinating interpretation of events, fascinating.
The Tories got booted out by Labour and a resurgent Lib Dems because they weren't right wing enough ?
Why fascinating? Many people believe that the Tories were not right wing enough. 4m votes for Reform would certainly suggest that. A lot of people in Brighton and on this forum may not agree with that but nevertheless it's fact.And just the mistake they made after they got booted out last time.
Fascinating interpretation of events, fascinating.
The Tories got booted out by Labour and a resurgent Lib Dems because they weren't right wing enough ?
Pavilionaire
Well-known member
- Jul 7, 2003
- 31,083
My views:
1. The Tories have an ageing membership base, and many will die off over the next 5 years.
2. They are not popular with the young who overwhelmingly supported remaining in the EU and who despise the Tories for a botched Brexit and acrashed economy.
3. Badenoch is the clear favourite with the bookies, If you are looking to win back Reform voters then good luck trying to do that with a black woman at the helm. She will simply embolden farage and push more Tories towards Farage.
4. On the Telegraph's poll of "Who do you want to be next Tory leader?" there have been over 14,000 responses and in second place behind Badenoch - on 16% - is Nigel Farage. Not even a Tory. In 3rd is Mourdant - not even an MP. The most popular centrist is Cleverley on 7%. The poll could not read better for the Lib Dems and Reform, who could further squeeze the remaining life out of the Tories in a pincer movement if they so choose.
The cabinet is bear. The Conservatives lack talent and lack leaders. They are facing an existential crisis.
1. The Tories have an ageing membership base, and many will die off over the next 5 years.
2. They are not popular with the young who overwhelmingly supported remaining in the EU and who despise the Tories for a botched Brexit and acrashed economy.
3. Badenoch is the clear favourite with the bookies, If you are looking to win back Reform voters then good luck trying to do that with a black woman at the helm. She will simply embolden farage and push more Tories towards Farage.
4. On the Telegraph's poll of "Who do you want to be next Tory leader?" there have been over 14,000 responses and in second place behind Badenoch - on 16% - is Nigel Farage. Not even a Tory. In 3rd is Mourdant - not even an MP. The most popular centrist is Cleverley on 7%. The poll could not read better for the Lib Dems and Reform, who could further squeeze the remaining life out of the Tories in a pincer movement if they so choose.
The cabinet is bear. The Conservatives lack talent and lack leaders. They are facing an existential crisis.
- Apr 5, 2014
- 25,385
The difference is that the Tories held their vote in 2015 because they took from Liberal Democrats what UKIP had taken from them. Their vote was unaffected. This time round the Lib Dems and Reform, in an unholy and unintended alliance, collapsed the Tory vote. This now means that, given they are a poor numbered opposition, the right wing movement of Reform sense blood.
Of course, to you and I this is nonsensical. But the reality is that Tories need those votes back and those on the right of the party have a vacuum. Labour have stolen the centre ground like they did in the Blair years. The only solution is the right wing movement that the new Tory breed want to build. And they have the perfect platform for it. And an ageing membership that will support it in the leadership election.
Cameron once described UKIP as loons and fruitcakes. There are enough of those in his own party to take this Thatcherite Deluxe thrust further.
Watching Newsnight earlier, only about 36% of Reform voters would consider voting Conservative as an alternative. The next largest party was Labour on 16% or so, with a portion for Lib Dems and Greens below that. They are, to a large extent, just the latest depository for the "they're all a bunch of tossers" protest vote.
People on the left of the Labour party insist that their policies are wildly popular as well, but that doesn't mean they're any good at winning elections with them. I remember in 2015 telling my left wing friends that Labour would never win under Corbyn or anybody from that wing of the party. I don't see the conservative situation much differently
I also remember being assured around the same time that the Conservatives had won a majority in 2015 because people wanted "proper Conservative policies" after the coalition, which a) doesn't stand up to even brief scrutiny when you look at the voting figures, and b) leads to the conclusion that the Conservatives have had ample opportunity to implement such policies, and have found they're either terrible ideas or aren't actually popular or both.
Ike and Tina Burner
Well-known member
- Mar 22, 2019
- 575
I think you're being too generous here by categorising their actions as ideological and not being the result of incompetence, greed and in-fighting.
Because they were terrible at managing the country and constantly needed more cash to cover their ineptitude. They weren't taxing for socialist reasons, simply to keep public services somewhat functioning.
Again, they were utterly incapable of managing immigration properly. Greed also played a factor in regards to the short term economic benefits of high immigration. They were never after diversity.
This doesn't make them left wing. If you can name specific left wing policies they didn't repeal then maybe there's an argument.
Again, because they were utterly incapable of managing the justice system. The prisons are literally overflowing hence the above policies.
I don't know enough to comment on this one
Can you name some specific policies please?
- Apr 5, 2014
- 25,385
Alternatively, you put a black woman in charge and there you have it. 'How can we be racist when.. ?'
They voted for Sunak.
I don't believe that colour is actually so much an issue for them now. They just want hardened right wing attitudes. It wouldn't get much better for them than a black person who is 'one of us'. If i was of their ilk I'd be shouting for Cruella Braverman though.