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[Politics] Liz Truss defending S.W. Norfolk seat July 4th.



T

The Mole

Well-known member
Feb 20, 2004
1,290
Bowdon actually , Cheshire
Gwylan said:
God knows I'm no Tory but I've met Portillo a few times and he's actually quite a reasonable bloke to chat to; Truss, on the other hand, seems deeply unpleasant. I'm in no rush to meet her to find out
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Portillo was hugely disliked at the time. But to his great credit, he was humble enough to realise that he’d made mistakes and managed to reinvent himself as a television trainspotter. I have no doubts that Portillo the TV personality is a lot nicer than Portillo the politician.
 




T

The Mole

Well-known member
Feb 20, 2004
1,290
Bowdon actually , Cheshire
clapham_gull said:
What interesting is to me is not who goes but who stays. Fascinating. I think Patel has the inclination to try and bring the party together, Braverman full on loony (who stabbed Johnson in the back live on TV) will want to take the part even more to the right.

Badenoch simply doesn't have the temperament to be leader. Someone even Farage describes as "very unpleasant".
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the cupboard does look bare but you don’t know who may emerge. In 1997 you would never have guessed that Michael Howard would become the person to bring a bit of sanity to the Tory party eventually.
 






Zeberdi

Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,099
Bob! said:
Not looking good

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No - been feeling down all day - sitting at the polling station since the early hours., I’ve been getting a general impression that the hatred of Labour in this Constituency is greater that the animosity to Truss. You don’t feel that until you wear a rosette.

Never since the 1800s has this Constituency been anything other than Tory.

I think there’s been a real swing back to the Tories to keep Labour out when people realised that Labour might win.
 






Bob!

Bob!

Coffee Buyer
Jul 5, 2003
11,488
Hugo Rune said:
I had a look at that twitter page.

There is an astonishing amount of ‘Lab Gain from Con’ constituencies that they are predicting.
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There's also a lot of 'CON hold'.

They've gone with 145 Con, 2 Reform, 1 Green
 


Hugo Rune

Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
23,377
Brighton
Bob! said:
There's also a lot of 'CON hold'.

They've gone with 145 Con, 2 Reform, 1 Green
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23 less than Major’s ‘97 total.

Not sure if this is a live exit poll but my guess is that the retired blue rinse brigade have done their voting and working people are going to surge the polling stations this evening. I can’t see that 145 figure going up.
 




Hamilton

Hamilton

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 7, 2003
12,876
Brighton
That UK Polling page is very different to many of the other polls. Electoral Calculus has a Tory wipeout at 61 seats. UK Polling has it at 163.

And UK Polling haven't even redrawn the proper boundary maps. They still have Andrew Griffith in place for the Mid Sussex seat. Dave Rowntree is not fighting against Griffith.

pollingreport.uk

Mid Sussex | E14001366

The latest forecast for Mid Sussex
pollingreport.uk pollingreport.uk
 


Audax

Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
3,208
Uckfield
Bob! said:
There's also a lot of 'CON hold'.

They've gone with 145 Con, 2 Reform, 1 Green
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145 Con feels generous to me. Expecting somewhere 100-125 personally, and if it's outside that range I'm actually expecting it to be lower - I just think they're position in so many seats is weak.

Saw a tweet earlier today suggesting that the Tories' own prediction is that they are confident of 80, and "think" they have a chance in 60 more but those 60 worry them.

All it takes is strong tactical voting and a weak Tory turnout and they could be facing sub-100.
 










Zeberdi

Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,099
Brovion said:
Said on the main thread, but congratulations @Zeberdi. Really pleased for you.
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Thanks. Waiting to hear from Terry - hoping we do some celebration when we’ve all recovered.

Just 600 votes in it out of a Constituency of nearly 75,000.
Labour candidate Terry Jermy won 11,847 while Truss won 11,217. Reform UK candidate Toby McKenzie had 9,958 after coming a close third.

(Reform certainly did us some favours)
 






Doc Lynam

Doc Lynam

I hate the Daily Mail
Jun 19, 2011
7,324
Stacking shelves near you and collecting a prime minister’s pension!
IMG_8744.jpeg
 


Zeberdi

Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,099
Sorry to bang on about the Norfolk aspect of this but it really is an historic result for Labour here - “Overnight, the county has gone from having just a single Labour MP in a sea of blue, to having five parties represented in Westminster.”

That’s a notional 27.85% swing from Conservative to Labour.

www.bbc.co.uk

Truss loses seat on bruising night for Tories in Norfolk

The Tories lose seats to Labour, Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats in the county.
www.bbc.co.uk

Appreciate that much of the Labour vote is a result of anti-Tory sentiment but locally, it is as much about the electorate wanting an MP that actually engages with the community so hopefully Terry will get more than one term.
 
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Hugo Rune

Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
23,377
Brighton
Really delighted for @Zeberdi who had given up on the on a Tory losing a 26k majority. But hey - miracles happen and the lettuce was shredded!

A chance for a decent constituency MP now rather than some nut doing the media rounds in the USA for their next election. Liz Truss showed certain Tories you could get to the top by having no integrity, intelligence or self awareness. Hopefully, we’ll not see a politician like that rise to that level of power in a very long time. She was, I’m afraid, a complete Kynt.
 






Zeberdi

Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,099
Hugo Rune said:
Really delighted for @Zeberdi who had given up on the on a Tory losing a 26k majority. But hey - miracles happen and the lettuce was shredded!

A chance for a decent constituency MP now rather than some nut doing the media rounds in the USA for their next election. Liz Truss showed certain Tories you could get to the top by having no integrity, intelligence or self awareness. Hopefully, we’ll not see a politician like that rise to that level of power in a very long time. She was, I’m afraid, a complete Kynt.
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A lot of first time Labour voters yesterday for that exactly very reason.

 


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