[Politics] The 2024 US Election - Trump v Harris

[Zeberdi]

I don’t think Taylor Swift backing Trump makes a blind bit of difference (sadly)

Maybe you didn’t mean that as it sounded? Swift is backing Harris.

Listening to The Rest is Politics US podcast, it’s clear that the election comes down to around 100,000 swing voters in the swing states. Swifites have probably never voted Trump and never will, they are not swing voters. They probably live in the Democrats states where their surge will make little difference to the Presidential race.

Yes, political analysts (and us here,) have been saying for weeks, it will boil down to 7 swing States - particularly Pennsylvania - if Harris loses Penn, the she MUST win all 6 other swing states to get the 270 votes needed (because of the large electoral college share in Penn) - Penn was Trump’s by a narrow margin in 2016 and Biden won it back by the closest margins in 2020. Swifties could definitely make a difference in Penn.

. Harris has to focus on those 100,000 swing voters who will decide the election and try and inspire them to turn away from Trump. It’s still all to play for but sadly, Taylor Swift will have no election changing affect.

Harris and Trump are focussing on the 7 swing States - Trump does not have the 100,000 swing voters (that’s why they are swing voters) so he will be fighting for their votes as much as Harris.

The key though is youth - Over 30% of Swifties will be first time voters - so Taylor Swift could certainly impact the outcome in swing States where there’s just a few thousand separating the candidates - not by converting MAGAs but by getting out the vote, by getting young people engaged in the election. Typically young people of most demographics tend to be pro-democrat and this election is no different - in fact they could hold the balance of power

https://www.axios.com/2024/09/13/trump-harris-campaign-young-voters

Taylor Swift gave the Trump campaign a thorn to dig out - with an instagram following of 284 million followers, her influence shouldn’t be underestimated.

 

[kevo]

Someone on X has described Trump's comments as 'Hitlerian rhetoric'. I don't think they're wrong:

‘They’ve destroyed the place’: Trump repeats racist, anti-immigrant lies

Trump spews hate again toward Ohio’s Haitian migrants, where residents are fearful over bomb threats and hate

www.theguardian.com

 

[US Seagull]

Someone on X has described Trump's comments as 'Hitlerian rhetoric'. I don't think they're wrong:

‘They’ve destroyed the place’: Trump repeats racist, anti-immigrant lies

Trump spews hate again toward Ohio’s Haitian migrants, where residents are fearful over bomb threats and hate

www.theguardian.com

Also worth noting when he calls them "illegals" he is lying. The Haitians in Springfield have "Temporary Protected Status", meaning they are legal.

 

[Klaas]

Sorry if already posted

 

[sparkie]

I imagine Putin would be happy to sign a piece treaty saying 'let's keep what we have, except for Kursk - and sanctions dropped'. And then he'd use Russia's vast wealth from natural resources to build his army up, promise not to invade the rest of Ukraine, and then immediately invade the rest of Ukraine.

^----- Perceptive.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Also worth noting when he calls them "illegals" he is lying. The Haitians in Springfield have "Temporary Protected Status", meaning they are legal.

And he also says they come from "insane asylums" when he means they are asylum seekers.

 

[Zeberdi]

One of the first polls conducted since the debate shows Harris still in the lead with Trump taking a small hit to his polling figures although it is uncertain to what extent*:

’Following the debate, Harris' chances of winning the presidential election in November improved among 20 leading bookmakers. She also remains ahead in the FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics polling averages, as well as Nate Silver's polling average. FiveThirtyEight's prediction model shows that Harris is projected to win the election in November with 279 Electoral votes.’

Kamala Harris maintains lead after debate: Republican pollster

The poll, conducted between September 10 and September 11, was one of the first since the presidential debate on Tuesday.

www.newsweek.com

Source Abc news

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

*This is with the proviso mentioned previously that national polls do not give a very good outcome prediction in tight races - how each candidate is doing in the 7 key swing states will be more significant

 

[peterward]

One of the first polls conducted since the debate shows Harris still in the lead with Trump taking a small hit to his polling figures although it is uncertain to what extent*:

’Following the debate, Harris' chances of winning the presidential election in November improved among 20 leading bookmakers. She also remains ahead in the FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics polling averages, as well as Nate Silver's polling average. FiveThirtyEight's prediction model shows that Harris is projected to win the election in November with 279 Electoral votes.’

Kamala Harris maintains lead after debate: Republican pollster

The poll, conducted between September 10 and September 11, was one of the first since the presidential debate on Tuesday.

www.newsweek.com

View attachment 188891

Source Abc news

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

*This is with the proviso mentioned previously that national polls do not give a very good outcome prediction in tight races - how each candidate is doing in the 7 key swing states will be more significant

279 is way too close, and theres no way the Tango Musollini wannabe is going to concede knowing Jail awaits is there........ I wonder in which order Trump will seek to challenge the result?


Fake electors again who go against vote in their states? legal challenges claiming fraud again or literally calling people to armed revolution..... I genuinely believe all 3 may happen and are far more likely than Trump admitting he was beaten democratically.


Very interesting times, and here hoping for a Harris landslide.

 

[Albion my Albion]

Germany responds to Donald Trump's debate comments

Germany took to social media to rebut comments made by former President Donald Trump during the presidential debate Tuesday about the country's renewable energy industry.

www.cbsnews.com

Germany responds to Donald Trump's debate comments

Trump said in his debate against Vice President Kamala Harris. "Germany tried that, and within one year, they were back to building normal energy plants."

But on Wednesday, Germany's Federal Foreign Office decided to issue a rebuttal, echoing the former president's language.

"Like it or not: Germany's energy system is fully operational, with more than 50% renewables," the Federal Foreign Office shared on X. "And we are shutting down – not building – coal & nuclear plants. Coal will be off the grid by 2038 at the latest."

The German Foreign Office also poked at Trump for another comment he made during the debate.

"PS: We also don't eat cats and dogs," it concluded, referring to Trump's debunked claim that Haitian migrants had eaten pets in Springfield, Ohio. The town's authorities have said that there have not been credible reports about migrants targeting pets.

 

[Madafwo]

Germany responds to Donald Trump's debate comments

Germany took to social media to rebut comments made by former President Donald Trump during the presidential debate Tuesday about the country's renewable energy industry.

www.cbsnews.com

Germany responds to Donald Trump's debate comments

Trump said in his debate against Vice President Kamala Harris. "Germany tried that, and within one year, they were back to building normal energy plants."

But on Wednesday, Germany's Federal Foreign Office decided to issue a rebuttal, echoing the former president's language.

"Like it or not: Germany's energy system is fully operational, with more than 50% renewables," the Federal Foreign Office shared on X. "And we are shutting down – not building – coal & nuclear plants. Coal will be off the grid by 2038 at the latest."

The German Foreign Office also poked at Trump for another comment he made during the debate.

"PS: We also don't eat cats and dogs," it concluded, referring to Trump's debunked claim that Haitian migrants had eaten pets in Springfield, Ohio. The town's authorities have said that there have not been credible reports about migrants targeting pets.

That line about the German energy system being fully operational is a bit too 2nd Death Star-ish for me.

 

[Zeberdi]

279 is way too close, and theres no way the Tango Musollini wannabe is going to concede knowing Jail awaits is there........ I wonder in which order Trump will seek to challenge the result?


Fake electors again who go against vote in their states? legal challenges claiming fraud again or literally calling people to armed revolution..... I genuinely believe all 3 may happen and are far more likely than Trump admitting he was beaten democratically.


Very interesting times, and here hoping for a Harris landslide.

Of course he will - Trump is an ‘honourable person’ - there is no one ’more honourable’ - the last election was not ‘fair’ because he lost (and that’s what children always say when they lose) but this time, if it is a ‘fare and free election’, ‘absolutely’ he will ’accept the results’. ‘But, if for any reason’ he loses, the Country will go into a tail spin ‘the likes of 1929’.



Absolutely agree with you though, a close result in a loss for the Republicans will provide the impetus for Trump to incite whatever civil disobedience he sees fit.

Unfortunately, there is no way Harris will win a landslide - we are looking at multiple recounts, accusations of electoral interference and rioting.

I cannot believe there are still court cases adjudicating Trump’s interference in the last election without dealing with all this afresh between November 5 and January 6 for this election.

 

[Crawley Dingo]

And he also says they come from "insane asylums" when he means they are asylum seekers.

No, South American countries have taken the opportunity to empty their prisons like Venezuela, Trump is correct here.

 

[Bodian]

Greg Bobkin said:
And he also says they come from "insane asylums" when he means they are asylum seekers.

No, South American countries have taken the opportunity to empty their prisons like Venezuela, Trump is correct here.

Are all South American prisons insane asylums then?? Surely not.

Trump's own campaign can't find evidence to back up his claims.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/29/politics/fact-check-trump-mental-institutions-migrants-doctor/index.html

 

[Greg Bobkin]

No, South American countries have taken the opportunity to empty their prisons like Venezuela, Trump is correct here.

ACTUAL insane asylums? Like, mental institutes? They're not prisons...

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

 

[FamilyGuy]

The 50 new cities on federal Land. Like deregulated enterprise zones they can give the US a major boost as well as reducing the extortionate cost of housing.

Going to war with the Deep state by putting Kennedy in charge of the CIA. Abolish the FBI, finish the wall. OK FBI one is rumour than policy.

Stop WW3.

 

[FamilyGuy]

Kennedy find out who killed his uncle at least and clear out corruption.
FBI roles devolved to State level.
Like the Abraham accords, making an offer difficult to refuse.

 

[Crawley Dingo]

Guess who is on ignore now?

 

[Zeberdi]

Well, I think Trump did quite poorly and Harris did better than I expected, in as much as she memorized her lines flawlessly without saying anything of substance. She’s an empty pant suit IMO, with not one authentic bone in her body, being run by the same people who are currently running the country, whoever the hell they may be…

ABC were a disgrace, moderators my arse, it was an assault on Trump.

25 Lies Kamala Harris Told In Her Debate Against Trump

Here are 25 of the biggest falsehoods Kamala Harris told during her Tuesday night debate with Donald Trump.

thefederalist.com

So who do you think won the debate?

Seems he doesn’t know himself who won ( he initially said only losers of the first round want another chance to try and win) because he is leaving the door open here for a comeback fight:

 

[US Seagull]

Think before you post:

'It just exploded': Springfield woman claims she never meant to spark false rumors about Haitians

The woman behind an early Facebook post that helped spark baseless rumors about Haitians eating pets told NBC News that she feels for the immigrant community.

www.nbcnews.com