Your constituency in this election.

[Eastleigh Seagull]

Bolton West - Labour majority of 92 - first time in my life i have lived in a place where it will actually be worth voting. I reckon a three way race with Labour, Tory and UKIP, which prob means a Labour hold

 

[Normal Rob]

Somerton and Frome - big target for the Conservatives with a 3% majority for the Lib Dems in 2010 and the long time residing MP stepping down, I think that the tories will take it. I hope not.

 

[Goldstone1976]

Cambridge - having been LD for the last two elections, the last with a 7k majority over Lab and 8k over the Tories, I expect a LD hold with a quite significantly reduced majority. The LDs U-turn on tuition fees will not have enamoured them to the student element of the electorate.

 

[chimneys]

Sevenoaks 2010 result:

Michael Fallon Conservative 28,076 56.8 +5.5

Alan Bullion Liberal Democrat 10,561 21.4 -0.8

Gareth Siddorn Labour 6,541 13.2 -8.0

Chris Heath UK Independence Party 1,782 3.6 +0.6

Paul Golding British National Party 1,384 2.8 +2.8

Louise Uncles English Democrats 806 1.6 +0.0

Mark Ellis Independent 258 0.5 +0.5

Majority
17,515 35.4

Turnout
49,408 71.0 +5.0

I predict Fallon maintaining massive majority, UKIP replacing Lib Dem in second , and Labour a sorry fourth this time round.

 

[Barry Izbak]

Does anyone want to wish my brother luck taking on Boris in Uxbridge ?

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/uxbridgeandruislipsouth/

Not sure how many other Albion fans are actually standing in the election (I don't count Lucas)

 

[Bolton va va]

Bolton North East. Once Conservative, then marginal, now Labour .......the large Asian block vote will probably make it safe Labour now.

 

[West Hoathly Seagull]

Winchester has been Lib Dem in the past, and Chandlers Ford used to be part of the Eastleigh Constituency, which is Lib Dem and has been for a while. I was surprised, though, that it was not a bigger majority last time round.

Winchester was the place where Mark Oaten famously won by just 2 votes in 1997. The Tory, Gerry Malone, made a complete prat of himself by challenging the result and forcing a by-election. He ended up getting humiliated (I think Oaten won by about 20,000). Oaten held on comfortably in 2001 and 2005, but then had his own shenanigans. I don't think that was what did for his Lib Dem opponent, though. Eastleigh was the only Lib Dem hold of their three M3/M27 corridor seats, as Romsey returned to the Tories too. Winchester is historically solidly Tory at Parliamentary level, though the Lib Dems have done well at local level for a long time and I think control the local council. Interestingly, this area has had a tempestuous recent political history. I think Winchester Tories forced Malone's predecessor John Browne to retire after he had dumped his wife, and Oaten of course then had his little problem. In Eastleigh, the Tory MP died after performing some bizarre act, and then of course Chris Huhne made all his own headlines, while Romsey went Lib Dem after the long-standing Tory MP died in a fire at his house.

 

[turienzo's lovechild]

East Worthing & Shoreham- hardcore Tory although I've seen more UKIP posters than Tory in Shoreham lately

 

[Hotchilidog]

I'm amazed that Fatty Soames has the 2nd smallest majority in West Sussex. Thought it would be 10,000+.

Makes you think about all those people who don't vote in Mid-Sussex because they think their vote is wasted. That majority could be overturned. This is why the major parties encourage apathy.

 

[Hotchilidog]

As for my constituency Brighton Pavilion - Green Hold (I hope)

 

[cloud]

I've always wondered this - do you notice any difference in how good a constituency MP you have while he's serving as Speaker compared to just having a 'normal' MP?

Well, given that he is required to attend Parliament all the time and is therefore given an apartment actually IN the House of Commons, you would think he might be a bit busy.

Luckily we are a quiet and rural area, he is actively campaigning against HS2 but there's probably not too much for him to do.

Is that a fact? Well, you learn something new every day.

Do you feel a bit robbed if your MP becomes Speaker, I wonder?

Indeed, it hardly seems worth going to the polling booth, though I probably will

 

[blue'n'white]

You could put a donkey up with a blue rosette in Reigate and it would probably win

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/reigate/

 

[Carrot Cruncher]

Makes you think about all those people who don't vote in Mid-Sussex because they think their vote is wasted. That majority could be overturned. This is why the major parties encourage apathy.

Indeed. As the saying goes, those who do nothing deserve all they get.

 

[inland seagull]

Northampton North - probable Labour gain from Conservative, poll dependent on level of Tory defection to UKIP

 

[Domsdad]

Cheadle - will be very, very close but I think the LibDems will hold.

 

[West Hoathly Seagull]

I'm amazed that Fatty Soames has the 2nd smallest majority in West Sussex. Thought it would be 10,000+.

Makes you think about all those people who don't vote in Mid-Sussex because they think their vote is wasted. That majority could be overturned. This is why the major parties encourage apathy.

This is what I posted on UK Polling Report. My attempt to explain why Mid Sussex is not so clear cut a Tory seat as it might seem (you might disagree with me on Bentswood, but that certainly did apply when I worked with someone from there):

As a local of 35 years (yes, I vote in Battersea where my flat is, but I grew up in this area and still spend a very large amount of my time here), I can give a bit of a guide. People are surprised that Soames has a fairly small majority here. It is not really that surprising. The constituency was pared down in 1997 to its urban base of East Grinstead, Burgess Hill and the administrative centre of Haywards Heath in the middle. East Grinstead and Burgess Hill have local Lib Dem strength, with several of the BH wards being strongholds until recently. EG is more marginal, but until recently the Lib Dems won all but one of its 10 seats. Haywards Heath and its surrounding areas such as Cuckfield and Lindfield are more Conservative, though HH has some Lib Dem strength and has the one Labour ward in the district, Bentswood, based on a solidly working class council estate. There are also some strongly Conservative villages such as West Hoathly and Scaynes Hill. However large, mainly Conservative areas have been moved to other seats – Ardingly to Horsham and a large area in the south around Hurstpierpoint to Arundel and the South Downs (the Conservatives did not do well in the boundary changes of 1995, which came into effect for 1997).

This is not the seat that Tim Renton held for 23 years. Had those boundaries been in operation in 1997, I think Soames would have held the seat with a majority of 12,000 to 13,000, allowing for some lost personal vote from Tim Renton (he actually held it by about 6,500).

 

[Hotchilidog]

This is what I posted on UK Polling Report. My attempt to explain why Mid Sussex is not so clear cut a Tory seat as it might seem (you might disagree with me on Bentswood, but that certainly did apply when I worked with someone from there):

As a local of 35 years (yes, I vote in Battersea where my flat is, but I grew up in this area and still spend a very large amount of my time here), I can give a bit of a guide. People are surprised that Soames has a fairly small majority here. It is not really that surprising. The constituency was pared down in 1997 to its urban base of East Grinstead, Burgess Hill and the administrative centre of Haywards Heath in the middle. East Grinstead and Burgess Hill have local Lib Dem strength, with several of the BH wards being strongholds until recently. EG is more marginal, but until recently the Lib Dems won all but one of its 10 seats. Haywards Heath and its surrounding areas such as Cuckfield and Lindfield are more Conservative, though HH has some Lib Dem strength and has the one Labour ward in the district, Bentswood, based on a solidly working class council estate. There are also some strongly Conservative villages such as West Hoathly and Scaynes Hill. However large, mainly Conservative areas have been moved to other seats – Ardingly to Horsham and a large area in the south around Hurstpierpoint to Arundel and the South Downs (the Conservatives did not do well in the boundary changes of 1995, which came into effect for 1997).

This is not the seat that Tim Renton held for 23 years. Had those boundaries been in operation in 1997, I think Soames would have held the seat with a majority of 12,000 to 13,000, allowing for some lost personal vote from Tim Renton (he actually held it by about 6,500).

Soames won the seat by 13.2% with just over 50% of a 55,855 turnout a majority of 7,402. The size of the electorate was 77,044. Over 21,000 people thought their vote did not count, if they HAD voted, maybe it would have.

I am sure you can find similar situations in every 'safe' seat for each of the main parties. It seems to me that those who have not previously voted can have a major influence on this election result if they can bothered to vote this time.

 

[Peter Grummit]

I predict Hove and Kemptown will determine the election.

If you want to vote Green, but above all don't want a Tory administration, then arrange a vote swap with a Labour supporter in Pavilion.

PG

 

[aolstudios]

Brighton Kemptown.

Swiss Tony to lose his seat to Labour

 

[Grassman]

I'm in Tunbridge Wells. Not even going to bother looking. As we used to say: "You could put up a monkey with a blue rosette here and it'd win". For many years it did, but then Sir Patrick Mayhew retired.

Signed

Disgusted, Tunbridge Wells