A work colleague who is a big Newcastle fan has given little old brighton 13 extra points and wagered me £20 that they wil be sooo clear of us, I had to shake his hand and hopefully better than the £20 then bragging rights at end of season , go on the super seagulls
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Work friend wager
- Thread starter nordicgod
- Start date
Tom Hark Preston Park
Will Post For Cash
- Jul 6, 2003
- 72,413
What a very generous person your work colleague is - not to mention head-mental! Your winnings are safe in the bank already
Iggle Piggle
Well-known member
- Sep 3, 2010
- 5,992
The current spread bet with Sporting index (I.e No. Of points at season end)
Newcastle 92.5 -94.5
Albion 83.5 - 85.5
In other words the bookies currently have the gap at 9 points.
Newcastle 92.5 -94.5
Albion 83.5 - 85.5
In other words the bookies currently have the gap at 9 points.
What a very generous person your work colleague is - not to mention head-mental! Your winnings are safe in the bank already
These are Newcastle fans who, given the choice, would probably ditch Rafa for the return of Kev!!!!
Normski1989
Well-known member
That's simply because the bookies have based it on us being 3 points behind after 1/3 of the season has been played. Their predictions are useless.
happypig
Staring at the rude boys
I know all of those words, but not in the order written. I don't think gambling is for me...
Normski1989
Well-known member
No. He will add 13 points onto Brighton's total at the end of the season and is betting that Newcastle would still finish above them. So he basically thinks we'll finish at least 13 points behind them with a worse goal difference.
BBassic
I changed this.
- Jul 28, 2011
- 13,089
Iggle Piggle
Well-known member
- Sep 3, 2010
- 5,992
The ‘’Spread’’ is the number of points Albion are expected to get after 46 games this season. That is currently set between 83.5 and 85.5 points. You can bet over i.e more than 85.5 or under which is less than 83.5.
If you bet £10 per point that Albion would get over 85.5 points you would win or lose as follows :
If Albion got 84 points. No win / no lose – I.e between 83.5 and 85.5 points
If Albion got 90 points you would win £45 (4.5, the difference between 90 and 85.5 multiplied by 10)
If Albion got 80 points you would lose £35 (3.5, the difference between 83.5 and 80)
You can really do your nuts on spread betting if you get it wrong.
Iggle Piggle
Well-known member
- Sep 3, 2010
- 5,992
If you really think a trader working within a spread betting company with access to thousands of computerised models who works out odds for a living would simply multiply the current gap by 3 after roughly a third of the season, Can I please take any bets you place?
Normski1989
Well-known member
If you had any true knowledge of the way the odds are calculated, you'd know that they use extremely complicated formulas to work out the predicted spread points total. But you'd also know that they'd apply the same formula to all teams in a similar position in the league, unless they have reason to believe that team is in a false position, which doesn't apply to either us or Newcastle. This would quite simply result in the gap after 1/3 of the season being multiplied by three, as both teams would be subject to the same mathematical formula.
Who gets the dead heat?
Personally I think its a pretty fair bet. We are doing brilliantly well thus far to keep up with them, despite them winning EVERY week.
We will inevitably have a dip somewhere though, and their squad is so deep, with power to add in January, that we'll do well to keep right alongside.
Realistically we could achieve second and STILL lose this bet.
We will inevitably have a dip somewhere though, and their squad is so deep, with power to add in January, that we'll do well to keep right alongside.
Realistically we could achieve second and STILL lose this bet.
Indeed, although I think we'll finish comfortably within 13 points of them. That said, a lot will depend on our injury list come January. There are about 3 players where long term injuries could seriously derail our promotion bid. I'm not going to mention their names because I don't want to be blamed if it happened!
IF Kayal and Rosenior come back firing, that mitigates against injuries in a few areas. Similarly IF March's return is for real, and he stays fit.
The 'other' striker is still a very obvious gap in the squad though, as everyone knows.
How do we get half a point?
We don't -which is exactly what keeps the system simple.
Say for example you are betting on the number of runs in a cricket innings, the bookie will allow you to bet against a total (let's say 360.5 runs) You are betting that the team will score ABOVE or BELOW the stated total, and because of the 0.5, there are only two possible outcomes. If the bookie made it 360, there are three options to consider, complicating matters.
Iggle Piggle
Well-known member
- Sep 3, 2010
- 5,992
OK Einstein. I'll leave you to clean up on the spreads with your 3 times table.
#Spreadbettingbythebollox
Normski1989
Well-known member
You'll also note that I said in my original post that their predictions are useless. Just because I understand the formulas doesn't make it easy to win.
My whole point is that the bookies have us finishing around 9 points behind Newcastle based on their complicated, yet consistent, mathematical equations. Their formulas don't have the ability to factor in injuries that are yet to come, increased pressure from fans or mental strength and team spirit. Hence why I said that their predictions are useless in terms of working out if we'll be within 13 points of Newcastle or not.