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Wimbledon 2013



M

mike79

Active member
Sep 28, 2005
840
Bournemouth
Mtoto said:
In effect, you are betting into a separate book, one without Murray in the field but with his percentage of the market taken off the over-round. In the long run, the worst outcome for the bookmaker is that they give away free money into betting accounts that their customers may well just keep betting with, while depending on the actual result, it may not cost them too much anyway.

The quality of the offer depends on how likely the winner is. At Ascot last week, one firm was refunding up to £100 if Animal Kingdom - who started at 5-4 - won the opening race on Tuesday, which was pretty generous given that you're taking out nearly 50pc of the market. But from the bookie's point of view, if you're going to put free money into people's betting accounts, you might as well do it on the first race on the first day of the biggest betting meeting of the Flat season. It's all about keeping the turnover churning.

Murray is around 7-2, which takes out about 22pc, though on the plus side, it's 33-1 bar the top four so you can back the other three proportionately up to the maximum refund and unless there is the biggest shock for decades, the worst than can happen is that you come out even. Don't expect to do it more than once or twice with any particular firm, however. It is a way to pull in "recreational" punters, not hand out free money to shrewdies.
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bookies don't go to 100% books though

murray is over 4/1 on betfair
 




8ace

8ace

Banned
Jul 21, 2003
23,811
Brighton
Mtoto said:
In effect, you are betting into a separate book, one without Murray in the field but with his percentage of the market taken off the over-round. In the long run, the worst outcome for the bookmaker is that they give away free money into betting accounts that their customers may well just keep betting with, while depending on the actual result, it may not cost them too much anyway.

The quality of the offer depends on how likely the winner is. At Ascot last week, one firm was refunding up to £100 if Animal Kingdom - who started at 5-4 - won the opening race on Tuesday, which was pretty generous given that you're taking out nearly 50pc of the market. But from the bookie's point of view, if you're going to put free money into people's betting accounts, you might as well do it on the first race on the first day of the biggest betting meeting of the Flat season. It's all about keeping the turnover churning.

Murray is around 7-2, which takes out about 22pc, though on the plus side, it's 33-1 bar the top four so you can back the other three proportionately up to the maximum refund and unless there is the biggest shock for decades, the worst than can happen is that you come out even. Don't expect to do it more than once or twice with any particular firm, however. It is a way to pull in "recreational" punters, not hand out free money to shrewdies.
Click to expand...

I reckon 34% profit if RF, RN or ND win - so about a 1/3 shot.
Are you gonna have some ???
 


Mtoto

Mtoto

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2003
1,858
mike79 said:
bookies don't go to 100% books though

murray is over 4/1 on betfair
Click to expand...

Of course not, but if you take out even 20pc it will be overbroke, and on Wimbledon it's effectively a 4-horse race. And even if you don't just back all the other opportunities, you're likely getting a fair price about an alternative to Murray because of the refund potential.
 


Mtoto

Mtoto

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2003
1,858
8ace said:
I reckon 34% profit if RF, RN or ND win - so about a 1/3 shot.
Are you gonna have some ???
Click to expand...

For the sake of £30 (assuming it's a 100 refund) I'd rather keep an account open in case there's an ante-post price I really want. I'm as far from a heavy-hitter as you'll ever get this side of an office sweep, but I find it's still getting ever more difficult to get bets laid because I'm only ever looking to back with a bookie when they are top price (and quite possibly above Betfair) so they tend to assume you're an arber and either restrict or close.
A senior trader with one of the big firms told me a while ago that these days, they can tell within three bets whether a new client is one that's going to be any use to them in the long run. All three might lose, but if they are spread out and only at top price, or looking to back Pricewise or Henry Rix very early, a whopping great black mark will go against them immediately.
 


8ace

8ace

Banned
Jul 21, 2003
23,811
Brighton
Mtoto said:
For the sake of £30 (assuming it's a 100 refund) I'd rather keep an account open in case there's an ante-post price I really want. I'm as far from a heavy-hitter as you'll ever get this side of an office sweep, but I find it's still getting ever more difficult to get bets laid because I'm only ever looking to back with a bookie when they are top price (and quite possibly above Betfair) so they tend to assume you're an arber and either restrict or close.
A senior trader with one of the big firms told me a while ago that these days, they can tell within three bets whether a new client is one that's going to be any use to them in the long run. All three might lose, but if they are spread out and only at top price, or looking to back Pricewise or Henry Rix very early, a whopping great black mark will go against them immediately.
Click to expand...

Good point well made, will swerve it.
 












Triggaaar

Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,228
Goldstone
Saw a few minutes of the Sharapova match. WTF! It wasn't tennis at all, it was just a weird grunting match, with no obvious rules. How the hell anyone could sit through an hour of that I have no idea. Complete joke, and should be banned.
 












T

Tooting Gull

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
11,033
I've made my money on the women's event this year.

The two American up-and comers Sloane Stephens and Madison Keys have delivered so far, and have had doubles and trebles with Sabine Lisicki.

Had also got small bets on Stephens ew and to win quarter, and Eugenie Bouchard as a long shot at 200-1 ew in bottom half.
 






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