Will Greece Be First Relegation From Eurozone ?

[BHAFC_Pandapops]

Greece will definitely be the first, failing government is never a good thing for the sake of keeping turmoil at bay, they need a rock hard figure to get them through it all.

The next to go are a toss-up between Spain and Ireland. Spain have massive unemployment, and it's all going Chorizo-shaped over there, I dare say, if they're not careful in Spain, things could turn out like they did in Greece, with the rioting. However, in Ireland, the estimated amount of debt divided amongst the population is something like €300,000 each, not like they literally have to make every citizen pay it, it's just a figure, but a bad one at that, which is why the two are in contention.

Portugal are hovering in the netherworld of Mid-Table. The debt per person and both government and foreign debt compared to GDP aren't disastrous -- yet. The problem is the fact that they are owed a few bob by Greece which they will never get back, whilst at the same time owing Spain a couple of pence for the trouble.

Germany are top. Naturally. It seems like they are in control for the moment and don't look like they are going anywhere, if they do, I feel it will filter down throughout the eurozone.

Citation Needed

 

[cunning fergus]

The Euro is dead, as predicted by economist Paul Krugman back in 1998 :

THE EURO: BEWARE OF WHAT YOU WISH FOR

For all the seven long years since the signing of the Maastricht treaty started Europe on the road to that unified currency, critics have warned that the plan was an invitation to disaster. Indeed, the standard scenario for an EMU collapse has been discussed so many times that it sometimes seems to long-time eurobuffs like myself as if it has already happened - perhaps because it is modeled on the real crisis that afflicted the European Monetary System back in 1992.

Here's how the story has been told: a year or two or three after the introduction of the euro, a recession develops in part - but only part - of Europe. This creates a conflict of interest between countries with weak economies and populist governments - read Italy, or Spain, or anyway someone from Europe's slovenly south - and those with strong economies and a steely-eyed commitment to disciplined economic policy - read Germany. The weak economies want low interest rates, and wouldn't mind a bit of inflation; but Germany is dead set on maintaining price stability at all cost. Nor can Europe deal with "asymmetric shocks" the way the United States does, by transferring workers from depressed areas to prosperous ones: Europeans are reluctant to move even within their countries, let alone across the many language barriers.

The result is a ferocious political argument, and perhaps a financial crisis, as markets start to discount the bonds of weaker European governments.
In the light of the above, a few housekeeping items:

1) Change as much sterling as you can into in USD and stash them in a safe hidden in your house;
2) Arm yourself, the Police wont work for f*** all..................250,000 rounds should be enough;
3) Watch as many US prison documentaries as you can, those in control in the future will have the same mentality as the inmates;
4) Form a close network with your friends and family with the sole aim of persuing the politicans who advocated the benfits of the EU. Find them and kill them and then all of their family.............sell any young female family members to the local fast food/taxi cab outlet.......remember to ask for dollars.
5) Happy Christmas.

 

[sten_super]

Maybe they no longer wish to assist as they cannot see a time when they might benefit again.

They are still benefiting though - if they were using the Deutschmark rather than the Euro then their exchange rate would be much stronger vis-a-vis their main trading partners (China, US, UK) and they wouldn't be exporting as much (in value and volume terms).

Greece will definitely be the first, failing government is never a good thing for the sake of keeping turmoil at bay, they need a rock hard figure to get them through it all.

The next to go are a toss-up between Spain and Ireland. Spain have massive unemployment, and it's all going Chorizo-shaped over there, I dare say, if they're not careful in Spain, things could turn out like they did in Greece, with the rioting. However, in Ireland, the estimated amount of debt divided amongst the population is something like €300,000 each, not like they literally have to make every citizen pay it, it's just a figure, but a bad one at that, which is why the two are in contention.

Portugal are hovering in the netherworld of Mid-Table. The debt per person and both government and foreign debt compared to GDP aren't disastrous -- yet. The problem is the fact that they are owed a few bob by Greece which they will never get back, whilst at the same time owing Spain a couple of pence for the trouble.

Germany are top. Naturally. It seems like they are in control for the moment and don't look like they are going anywhere, if they do, I feel it will filter down throughout the eurozone.

Citation Needed

Ireland don't, to me at least, feel like they are in imminent danger. I think Spain is the next one, particularly given the size of their banking sector and their likely exposure to Greek debt (both directly and indirectly). If the banks required a new bailout things could go very wrong very quickly there.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

No, no they won't.

78% of Greeks don't want to leave the Eurozone, and their Politians, despite what they may say, know this.

Moreover, much more importantly, Germany doesn't want them to leave, as they know that if they do, that's the beginning of the end of the Euro. Spain, Portugal could well follow.

Let's assume for a moment that the meetings taking place this afternoon in Greece fail to form a Government - highly likely - we would then have new Elections within 4 weeks.

The Anti-Austerity Party, Syriza, led by Tsipras, would (probably) become the biggest Party, probably with enough support to form a Government

He would then tear up the bail out, already agreed. BUT IMO, it would then be renegotiated, over much longer and at much more favourable rates to Greece, meaning that he can say to his Electorate - "We're still in the Euro AND we aren't having to have the cuts
that we would have had"

This IMO has been made more likely with the change in Leadership in France. Msr Hollande is as we know Anti Austerity, yet he won't want Greece to leave the Euro for all of the reasons mentioned.

The Greeks will walk away with renegotiated bail out terms - Mrs Merkel won't let the Eurozone collapse on her watch.

 

[BigGully]

No, no they won't.

78% of Greeks don't want to leave the Eurozone, and their Politians, despite what they may say, know this.

Moreover, much more importantly, Germany doesn't want them to leave, as they know that if they do, that's the beginning of the end of the Euro. Spain, Portugal could well follow.

Let's assume for a moment that the meetings taking place this afternoon in Greece fail to form a Government - highly likely - we would then have new Elections within 4 weeks.

The Anti-Austerity Party, Syriza, led by Tsipras, would (probably) become the biggest Party, probably with enough support to form a Government

He would then tear up the bail out, already agreed. BUT IMO, it would then be renegotiated, over much longer and at much more favourable rates to Greece, meaning that he can say to his Electorate - "We're still in the Euro AND we aren't having to have the cuts
that we would have had"

This IMO has been made more likely with the change in Leadership in France. Msr Hollande is as we know Anti Austerity, yet he won't want Greece to leave the Euro for all of the reasons mentioned.

The Greeks will walk away with renegotiated bail out terms - Mrs Merkel won't let the Eurozone collapse on her watch.

I cannot help thinking you are a staunch pro EU, that feels frustrated that you got it so wrong.

Those that are currently so vociferous tend to be those that have been banging on to us, the 'little Englander' that tagged up the absurdity of it all at the very beginning.

 

[Badger]

Couldn't Greece sell up and country share with Turkey?

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I cannot help thinking you are a staunch pro EU, that feels frustrated that you got it so wrong.

Those that are currently so vociferous tend to be those that have been banging on to us, the 'little Englander' that tagged up the absurdity of it all at the very beginning.

Me, Pro Europe/Euro! You couldn't be more wrong!

I'm simply stating my opinion that I think Greece will stay in the Euro, as speaking on a daily basis to Greeks in Athens, they don't want to leave, but don't want the austerity measures either.

Mr Tsipras knows this. If he wins any new Election he will IMO, stand up to Merkel and say "Kick us out, or renegotiate the terms of the bail out"

And, with everything at stake, Merkel will flinch.

 

[larus]

Me, Pro Europe/Euro! You couldn't be more wrong!

I'm simply stating my opinion that I think Greece will stay in the Euro, as speaking on a daily basis to Greeks in Athens, they don't want to leave, but don't want the austerity measures either.

Mr Tsipras knows this. If he wins any new Election he will IMO, stand up to Merkel and say "Kick us out, or renegotiate the terms of the bail out"

And, with everything at stake, Merkel will flinch.

Not that straight forward.

Merkel's losing support in Germany as the headlines in their media are getting more Anti the Euro every day. The Germans don't/won't pay to subsidise what they see as lazy/unproductive Greeks. I'm not saying that all Greeks are this way, but I have spoken to Greeks and it is widely accepted that tax avoidance is a national hobby. Also, they have created a lot of 'jobs' which aren't real jobs. For example, having 10 gardeners on public works, when only maybe 3 or 4 are required. They also have very generous public pensions (hmm, now why does that sound familiar ?), and want to retire early.

Maybe the Greeks do 'want' to stay in (hell, they've just written off about 120bln Euros of their credit card debt, so they ain't done too bad from the party), but how long will the want to stay in if the rest of the Eurozone enforce the rules on austerity.

So, if you think that the Euro will continue to exist in it's current guise for much longer (say a maximum timeline of 18 months), then I think you are very mistaken.

 

[beorhthelm]

They (and France) allowed the Greeks to join with manipulated figures.

ah. now theres the rub of it, the French were keen on the broader inclusion, after all the whole Euro was really driven from Paris. the Germans were always reluctant about the med states and were very carefull to ensure some strict rules on entry. of course like most things european, the rest of them decided to ignore the rules anyway. The benefits Germany see from being in a devalued currency are overstated, they had been doing pretty well before and would have become much more competitve post unification too.
(ironically, apparantly the most expenisve country for businesses is Portugal, with generous employee protection making the labour unit cost higher than every other european nation)

 

[cunning fergus]

ah. now theres the rub of it, the French were keen on the broader inclusion, after all the whole Euro was really driven from Paris. the Germans were always reluctant about the med states and were very carefull to ensure some strict rules on entry. of course like most things european, the rest of them decided to ignore the rules anyway. The benefits Germany see from being in a devalued currency are overstated, they had been doing pretty well before and would have become much more competitve post unification too.
(ironically, apparantly the most expenisve country for businesses is Portugal, with generous employee protection making the labour unit cost higher than every other european nation)

Its better than that though, because Germany and France were the first states to breach the conditions of the stability and growth pact, (conceived by the Germans) which should have been the framework within which the euro was managed. Once the big boys were getting away with not acting within the rules it was open season for everyone, and cue massive spending by the PIIGS. Massive deficits followed but there was no political will to enforce the pact, actually the opposite happened.......the framework was diluted.

These are the very same people that should have been controlling the banks.....and the very same people who have the masterplan to avoid catastrophe. Frankly I would rather put the Murdochs in charge.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Talks fail.

New Elections in June.

 

[Danny-Boy]

While the Greeks have undoubtedly benefited from being able to borrow at the same interest rates as Germany, at the same time Germany wouldn't be as prosperous without the likes of Greece helping to curtail the strength of the euro; it's this which has allowed Germany to run such fantastic trade surpluses. The Greeks haven't done well, and the political establishment has completely failed to get to grips with the problem, but the desire of the Germans to both have their cake and eat it is just as frustrating.

Yes that's true. Portillo's programme last night did ilustrate how the Greeks went mad on luxury gods, including German cars, after they became part of the euro-zone.

I spent a holiday on Alonnisos, a small island in the Sporades group, in 1974. There wasn't a road in the island, just some dusty unmade tracks. I recently found a map of the Sporades as it is now, and the island is covered in roads and walking paths. Someone must have paid for all that...having said that, if the Greks have to print their own curency again, all of their existing euros held privately wil have been switched into gods, especially, so I hear, property around London.

 

[Bridcutt]

Sorry, what will happen if Greece get ejected from Europe? What continent will they join?

 

[Flavor Flav]

I don't know a lot about the subject but I know that the German are owed a f***ing ludacris figure by Greece and going by that I assume they owe the rest of the countries in the EU a lot. Some sort of deal will be struck with whatever government is formed in Greece because Germany simply can't afford to lose their investment in Greece. Losing Greece would cause a collapse in Europe with debt that would be never paid back. Countries leaving the EU would be a disaster for the European economy and France and Germany know that.

 

[Goring Gull]

The greeks are a bit lazy - they spending half the day having a kip no wonder they are in trouble

 

[brunswick]

The greeks are a bit lazy - they spending half the day having a kip no wonder they are in trouble

thats exactly what they want you to think.

the post is titles relegation....but getting out is a promotion (even tho the elite will own the whole country's infrastructure).

the dominos are starting to fall - look at who you save money with in the uk...(scroll down)

Greece Exit, Euro-Zone Collapse, Spain and Portugal Will Follow Within 6 Months :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website

 

[brunswick]

Just proves that you can only have a multinational currency without full political union in the good times.

Invest in gold if you can afford it.

wise advice - we moved into gold a while back - not a certificate - the juicy bars n coins. city forex (goldline) in london are a great over the counter professional outfit.

 

[Don Quixote]

Gold has no real value.

 

[brunswick]

Gold has no real value.

nor does paper money or copper coins, but the collective consciousness see's gold as holding value and will do so for at least another generation or so.

you wait, gold will hit $2000 soon when the cat gets out the bag.

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

Greece has defaulted on sovereign debt twice in her history and will do so again now that the Germans have spunked another few billion keeping them in their massive pensions for a few more weeks.
I fear that the situation there will turn very ugly very soon as a population used to a very high standard of living and welfare is plunged back into a subsistence economy like it was before the euro turned them into a sophisticated aquisative society.
I was responsible for my companys Greek business in my last job and the stand out thing I remember is that they had by far the biggest expense accounts for the worst sales across Europe...
Followed closely by the Spanish and the Italians....hardly academic I know but telling nonetheless.