Why the Election polls were wrong ..

[JC Footy Genius]

The failure of pollsters to forecast the outcome of the general election was largely due to "unrepresentative" poll samples, an inquiry has found.

The polling industry came under fire for predicting a virtual dead heat when the Conservatives ultimately went on to outpoll Labour by 36.9% to 30.4%.

A panel of experts has concluded this was due to Tory voters being under-represented in phone and online polls.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35347948

All polls conducted by the major polling companies since the last general election have given the Conservatives anything between a 4 - 15% lead .

According to this report most if not all have been using biased samples underestimating the Tory vote so the gap is more likely to be nearer the 15%.

Predictions* based on polls possibly underrepresenting Tory support (up to December 2015) suggest a likely increased Conservative majority of 44 rising to 50 when constituency boundary changes are enacted.

This consistent lead is being maintained despite the Tax credit U turn, ongoing cuts to public services, Junior Doctor strikes and all the other heinous crimes (as defined by it's opponents) being carried out by the Government. Also note most governments inflict all the painful and unpopular measures at the front end of parliaments saving the goodies/bribes for nearer the next election.

A glimmer of hope for the Corbyn fans could be a sudden emergence of consensus, unity and competence in Labour combined with vicious Tory infighting over the EU referendum combined with a catastrophic downturn in the global economy. Fingers crossed for all that then ..

*http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Basically the polls were wrong because they asked the wrong people.

Rocket Science isn't dead, it seems.

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

To be fair, nobody was going to admit that they intended to vote Tory, were they?

 

[Goldstone1976]

I was struck by the way that BBC R4 covered this story this morning; apparently the samples "...contained too many labour voters...", which is interesting both from a sampling error perspective and as a choice of phrase to use.

 

[Goldstone1976]

To be fair, nobody was going to admit that they intended to vote Tory, were they?

The R4 piece reported that the "shy tory" factor was negligible as an explanation (not that it doesn't exist, but that the polling companies had adequately controlled for it).

 

[wellquickwoody]

To be fair, nobody was going to admit that they intended to vote Tory, were they?

Still smarting!

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Basically the polls were wrong because they asked the wrong people

I reckon its got far more to do with 'herd instinct' amongst the pollsters. Nobody wanted to be out of line with the general consensus in predicting it 'too close to call' so they ended up just frigging the figures til they were back in line with the rest of the herd. Shame they all ended up blowing any credibility they may once have had.

 

[ROSM]

Bluntly the over 70s who are significant tory voters weren't participating in online polls and we're difficult to reach for telephone ones. One great fact in the report was that the more calls needed to someone before they answered, the more likely they were to vote tory.

 

[Notters]

Still smarting!

Still suffering, you mean?

 

[ROSM]

The samples aren't any better now. A poll taken last week asking people who they voted for in the 2015 election provided a small labour majority!

 

[8ace]

Have the inquiry reported back the results of the inquiry into where bears go to the toliet yet

 

[JJ McClure]

**Stereotype alert**
Tory voters tend to be conservative with a small c as well as a big C, whereas labour supporters are more likely to be the vocal lefties that shout from the roof tops...and to pollsters about who they support.

 

[melias shoes]

To be fair, nobody was going to admit that they intended to vote Tory, were they?

They didn't ask me.

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

The samples aren't any better now. A poll taken last week asking people who they voted for in the 2015 election provided a small labour majority!

I think that included a lot of students who thought they'd got up and voted but forgot that they'd actually stayed in bed.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

There may well be a large swathe of Conservative leaning voters who aren't so much shy as extremely mischievous who deliberately give the opposite voting intention answer to pollsters with the intention of screwing up the results and giving false hope to Labour.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

If it was student chugger types doing the polls, they probably just filled in the forms with the results their paymasters wanted to hear and went down the pub.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

There may well be a large swathe of Conservative leaning voters who aren't so much shy as extremely mischievous who deliberately give the opposite voting intention answer to pollsters with the intention of screwing up the results and giving false hope to Labour.

Cheating devious lying Conservatives? Surely Not!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Cheating devious lying Conservatives? Surely Not!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You might think that I couldn't possibly comment ..

 

[Diego Napier]

To be fair, nobody was going to admit that they intended to vote Tory, were they?

Only on an anonymous football board.

 

[Guy Fawkes]

Have the inquiry reported back the results of the inquiry into where bears go to the toliet yet

Not quite yet - it's due out shortly, just after the report into which religion the Pope belongs to but it will be out before their report into where the sun goes at night