[Albion] Why are we so BAD at home?

[ConfusedGloryHunter]

The new seating ruined the feng shui

 

[A1X]

Shoooot!

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

I won't pretend to understand how we got to this stage, but it's clear (to me at least) that GP and the team do not enjoy playing at home. They feel the weight of the crowd's expectation, confidence is shot and things go from bad to worse.

Nothing that a thumping great home win wouldn't fix!

What expectation would that be? I never have any expectation that we are going to score or win these days. I'd be very pleasantly surprised if we did either.

 

[cjd]

Our current manager has failed for almost the whole three years he has been here, to understand that his sterile brand of football doesn't work against packed defences.

I keep hoping he will realise this and change, but I'm starting to lose faith in him......and my love of the Albion after 57 years of watching throughout all the divisions.

 

[Eric Youngs Contact Lens]

I don't have any stats to back this up, but we seem to do well when we don't boss possession, on Saturday we had 35%.

Quite often at home we have 60%+ and that just slows our play down which makes it too easy to defend against.

I agree that feels true. Back to Happy Exiles chicken and egg - its easier to score if a team is out of shape, spread across a large area of the pitch. Its easier to defend if your whole team is in shape out of possession. So it becomes about turnover, transition and quality of individuals in the key moments. We don't get humped, very often at all, because we are capable of keeping the ball. But because teams know that, at the Amex in particular, they will stay in shape and we don't have the quality of players to nail most of slim pickings in terms of chances that will then get created. We also know that if we give the ball away, in the opponents half, we are then that team out of shape, spread across the pitch and easier to score against. When confidence is lower, the fear of giving the ball away creeps in, less risk taken, things slow and its a hard watch

This is best exhibited by the way games play out after the 1st goal scored.

I also think it's not just us! Bossing possession is not just a style, it is often a manifestation of the game being played - a team doesnt set out to say, we don't want the ball. It happens because a team says "out of possession we will get into a shape" . If that is defend from the halfway line then the other team will have the ball a lot. A goal scored will very often dictate that shift of emphasis too for both teams. When you don't score n those rare moments, you become a victim of not risking enough to score and not risking too much to be scored against.

 

[Eric Youngs Contact Lens]

Our current manager has failed for almost the whole three years he has been here, to understand that his sterile brand of football doesn't work against packed defences.

I keep hoping he will realise this and change, but I'm starting to lose faith in him......and my love of the Albion after 57 years of watching throughout all the divisions.

What brand of football does work against packed defences?

 

[cjd]

What brand of football does work against packed defences?

Ask all the other clubs , whose home stats are superior to ours......there are plenty of them to choose from.


PS: That would be 17 of the other 19 Premier League clubs or,

all 19 of the other Premier League clubs who have scored more home goals than the Albion.

 

[dangull]

What brand of football does work against packed defences?

Man City, Real Madrid, Barcelona ect
To be fair, we are dealing with Brighton with a wage structure within the lower teams of the Premier League

 

[Justice]

Brighton play better when teams want to attack them more.
More often at home a lot of teams are quite content to sit back and wait to counter attack on the break. Over the last few years this problem has yet to be resolved.

I feel I could resolve this in a week of training tbh.

 

[portlock seagull]

Better players needed. Ones not terrified of the West Stand moaning.

 

[JBizzle]

I don't have any stats to back this up, but we seem to do well when we don't boss possession, on Saturday we had 35%.

Quite often at home we have 60%+ and that just slows our play down which makes it too easy to defend against.

I think you're right, but I think there's a logic in that. When we have all the possession, it's because those opponents have a game plan that allows it: Sit back, let us have the ball, win the ball in their own half and play on the counter. We're not good at breaking down two banks of 4 in part because we don't take our chances, but also in part because believe it or not, those teams (Burnley for example) are more than content to contain us that way and break.

When teams come as us, we're the team counter attacking and we stop thinking about how to score and just do it on auto-pilot. Our problem is and always has been breaking down a team that doesn't want to be broken down and completely smothers the life out of our attacking play.

 

[fly high]

What brand of football does work against packed defences?

Even City struggle

 

[Guinness Boy]

Meanwhile there is absolutely no difference at all between Palace at home and away, despite their "magnificent atmosphere".

 

[Eric Youngs Contact Lens]

Ask all the other clubs , whose home stats are superior to ours......there are plenty of them to choose from.


PS: That would be 17 of the other 19 Premier League clubs or,

all 19 of the other Premier League clubs who have scored more home goals than the Albion.

So, all the teams below us have won as many or more home games than us., apart from Watford, so assume they have scored more goals than us. I can appreciate that if we swapped our away form for our home form, that might feel better, but I would not swap our brand of football, home or away with anyone really. Would I like us to be better at it? yep for sure, but I wouldn't sacrifice more home wins for a league table .

 

[WATFORD zero]

Are we an 'outlier' every season ? This season home/away, last season xG ?

I wonder whether it is our underlying lack of consistency that throws up these statistical anomalies. I'm very much, 'I like the way we play, stick with it and little steps etc' as the way to get that consistency

 

[BadFish]

I think it is because when there is a crowd the seagulls made from the seats are unseen.

What is needed is for the people who sit in those seats to coordinate their clothing. I suggest red - scary - boo.

Those around could also coordinate so the seagulls really pop!!

 

[WATFORD zero]

I think it is because when there is a crowd the seagulls made from the seats are unseen.

What is needed is for the people who sit in those seats to coordinate their clothing. I suggest red - scary - boo.

Those around could also coordinate so the seagulls really pop!!

Not the most stupid idea I've read on NSC to improve our results

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Yes this has been done to death, so feel free to skip out, but I have been trying to work this out over the last few days with the gift of renewed perspective following the win at the weekend. Much easier to have a more subjective view when things aren't so doom and gloom.

But I came across this on twitter today and it has absolutely floored me (credit to @veryharshtakes on twitter)

View attachment 146884

The stat here is xGD, which is expected goal difference, so calculated out of the figures for expected goals both for and against. You can make reasons as to why we're bad at one thing or another when it comes to home form, such as scoring, or winning games, but I just don't understand how we can be so utterly terrible overall, with some of the away performances we've seen. This isn't me having a dig at any of the playing or coaching staff, or wanting to see another thread about the atmosphere, nor do I want to discolour the mood on here after such a fantastic result at the weekend. It's just absolutely baffling. How can we be worse at home than Watford, and only marginally better at home than Everton are away, and yet only have worse away xGD than Liverpool, Chelsea and Wolves?? It's puzzling, that's all. For there to be so much discrepancy between our home and away form there has to be something more going on, shirely?

Maybe stuff like this is a part of the problem. Some of our fans on NSC seem to venerate this type of statistical over analysis and over indulgence because it is Tony’s thing and because of their experience on PlayStation. I understand probability. Made my living out of it for 30 years as an Options Trader but that doesn’t mean I think it should be applied to all of life’s decisions.

 

[Dibdab]

There are basically two camps of thought here.

The first, and completely correct assertion, that the way to counteract Graham Potters tactics have been worked out by most teams. We just don't have the players to break down teams defending in numbers, whereas away teams have to come at us and we can exploit more space. The team pretty much know as they run-out at the Amex that if its a non top 4 side they are going to tap the ball about all afternoon looking at a crowded final third of the pitch and probably fluff their lines at the 2 or 3 proper chances they will get. Potter just hasn't found a way to get his side to work it out yet.

The second, and completely incorrect assertion, that it is somehow the fans fault. Complete rubbish of course. Someone mentioned West Ham. Despite managing to make some noise for a European tie , That stadium is still like a morgue for league games yet they have been fantastic all year. Why? Because their playing style and playing talent is more effective against away team tactics. Simple.

I think Webster and Emwepu being injured has really hurt us, as they are probably the only two players who can be direct and break defensive lines quickly by driving with the ball. Caceido looks like he might also bring that to the side. Hopefully having them fit and playing will see us be better for the remainder of the season.

 

[Titanic]

There are basically two camps of thought here.

The first, and completely correct assertion, that the way to counteract Graham Potters tactics have been worked out by most teams. We just don't have the players to break down teams defending in numbers, whereas away teams have to come at us and we can exploit more space. The team pretty much know as they run-out at the Amex that if its a non top 4 side they are going to tap the ball about all afternoon looking at a crowded final third of the pitch and probably fluff their lines at the 2 or 3 proper chances they will get. Potter just hasn't found a way to get his side to work it out yet.

The second, and completely incorrect assertion, that it is somehow the fans fault. Complete rubbish of course. Someone mentioned West Ham. Despite managing to make some noise for a European tie , That stadium is still like a morgue for league games yet they have been fantastic all year. Why? Because their playing style and playing talent is more effective against away team tactics. Simple.

I think Webster and Emwepu being injured has really hurt us, as they are probably the only two players who can be direct and break defensive lines quickly by driving with the ball. Caceido looks like he might also bring that to the side. Hopefully having them fit and playing will see us be better for the remainder of the season.

I entirely agree with your analysis... so maybe we need a Plan B for occasional use when frustration is setting in.

Couple of big fellas upfront to put it about a bit and hopefully we can feed off the scraps?