We're 98% certain to reach the play-offs

[Gwylan]

There are 2,592 combinations of possible results in the remaining Albion, Palace, Bolton and Forest games, only 51 of them would produce a situation where we would not be in the top four - approx 2 out of a 100.

Obviously, that assumes that there's an equal chance of all results happening and that Albion going to Leeds with nothing to play for is as easy (or as difficult) as Forest going to Millwall who are fighting for every point. I've also assumed that Forest or Bolton couldn't overtake on goal difference.

Looks like we can rest easy ... and no, I haven't got a life

 

[D Block blue]

Well we can see what your homework was this week, you could of listed all the 2,592 combinations down for everyone to see 6/10

 

[Bring back Bryan wade!!]

Good stats.

 

[Rugrat]

I'm already there and looking for the most desirable looking play off scenario!

How many combinations of semi final and final opponent? About as far as I can get is 10 different combinations of participants (assumes we are 1 of them)

 

[severnside gull]

There are 2,592 combinations of possible results in the remaining Albion, Palace, Bolton and Forest games, only 51 of them would produce a situation where we would not be in the top four - approx 2 out of a 100.

Obviously, that assumes that there's an equal chance of all results happening and that Albion going to Leeds with nothing to play for is as easy (or as difficult) as Forest going to Millwall who are fighting for every point. I've also assumed that Forest or Bolton couldn't overtake on goal difference.

Looks like we can rest easy ... and no, I haven't got a life

Dont care whether it is statistically accurate... . I like your maths


PMA

 

[johnhammond]

Stat-tastic - I like it (the maths and the odds)

 

[jonny.rainbow]

I had trouble sleeping last night as well.

Found a couple of large glasses of malt helped.

 

[Gwylan]

One note of caution: the chances of us not reaching the play-offs are 50-1. To indicate how unlikely that is, those are the same odds, in August, that FFS Murray would be the top scorer in the division.

 

[Rugrat]

One note of caution: the chances of us not reaching the play-offs are 50-1. To indicate how unlikely that is, those are the same odds, in August, that FFS Murray would be the top scorer in the division.

Can you do combinations of play off contenders and what are the chances of it being Us, Hull, Palarse and Forest. I reckon it's 0% but assume it's marginally better?

 

[Gwylan]

Can you do combinations of play off contenders and what are the chances of it being Us, Hull, Palarse and Forest. I reckon it's 0% but assume it's marginally better?

I could but not in my waking hours - I'd have to take seven teams into account for that which means the number of combinations increases. It's something to do to get me to sleep

 

[Vegas Seagull]

There are 2,592 combinations of possible results in the remaining Albion, Palace, Bolton and Forest games, only 51 of them would produce a situation where we would not be in the top four - approx 2 out of a 100.

Obviously, that assumes that there's an equal chance of all results happening and that Albion going to Leeds with nothing to play for is as easy (or as difficult) as Forest going to Millwall who are fighting for every point. I've also assumed that Forest or Bolton couldn't overtake on goal difference.

Looks like we can rest easy ... and no, I haven't got a life

Er, it's 1,944 combinations....

 

[teaboy]

One note of caution: the chances of us not reaching the play-offs are 50-1. To indicate how unlikely that is, those are the same odds, in August, that FFS Murray would be the top scorer in the division.

The chances of something happening is not the same as the odds you'd get from a bookmaker. What were the odds of us NOT reaching the play-offs from August?

 

[Gwylan]

Er, it's 1,944 combinations....

So it is. I thought Palace had four games to play not three - that will teach me to do mental arithmetic at 1.30 in the morning. Think the 51 combinations is still right though and the odds are still about 97%

 

[strings]

Out of curiousity, how did you work that out? I presume you didn't manually count it out.

Top stattage, I love it!

 

[HalifaxSeagull]

So it is. I thought Palace had four games to play not three - that will teach me to do mental arithmetic at 1.30 in the morning. Think the 51 combinations is still right though and the odds are still about 97%

Mental arithmetic? Do you use factorials? I was trying to work out the combos and i was wracking my brain back 20years to my a-levels and that's all I can remember how we'd work out such puzzles! - but it was too long ago and my 17yr old mind was on other things (girls, booze, girls, driving cars, footy & girls)!

 

[Tony Towner's Fridge]

There are 2,592 combinations of possible results in the remaining Albion, Palace, Bolton and Forest games, only 51 of them would produce a situation where we would not be in the top four - approx 2 out of a 100.

Obviously, that assumes that there's an equal chance of all results happening and that Albion going to Leeds with nothing to play for is as easy (or as difficult) as Forest going to Millwall who are fighting for every point. I've also assumed that Forest or Bolton couldn't overtake on goal difference.

Looks like we can rest easy ... and no, I haven't got a life

Brilliant Max, we can now all rest easy in a mathematically probable near certain type of existence.

Forest will draw at Millwar and we will be OK.

TNBA

TTF

 

[TheJasperCo]

It's a good week to be a statistician, even if you don't know what you're talking about.

 

[Rugrat]

Brilliant Max, we can now all rest easy in a mathematically probable near certain type of existence.

Forest will draw at Millwar and we will be OK.

TNBA

TTF

Can you change that to Bolton will lose at Cardiff please?

 

[Titus]

you could of

No, he could HAVE.

 

[Country Seagull]

So it is. I thought Palace had four games to play not three - that will teach me to do mental arithmetic at 1.30 in the morning. Think the 51 combinations is still right though and the odds are still about 97%

Only 97%! WE'RE DOOMED