[Misc] Weather Forecasts

[Moshe Gariani]

Around this time of year I become much more interested in the weather. In fact most mornings I spend pretty much obsessed by what it is going to be like later in the day.

On the rare occasions that we have nailed on dryness and/or warmth then all is well. On days like today where the BBC are confidently forecasting "sunshine and showers" all day it becomes more of an issue.

I have at times placed almost complete faith in the BBC hourly forecast. If the little sun icon is there for 18:00 in BN21 then that is what WILL be happening. This is of course the whole point of the hourly forecast - to give the impression they know what is coming. Unfortunately, I have finally realised that this information is not much better than guesswork. It might be sunny, it might be raining, it might not - who knows?

What is the best website for a weather forecast? Am I right in thinking they are all of very limited value?

 

[AmexRuislip]

Didn't Hove once have a weather guru, I seem to recall!
Haven't the foggiest what their name was.

 

[Steve in Japan]

Around this time of year I become much more interested in the weather. In fact most mornings I spend pretty much obsessed by what it is going to be like later in the day.

On the rare occasions that we have nailed on dryness and/or warmth then all is well. On days like today where the BBC are confidently forecasting "sunshine and showers" all day it becomes more of an issue.

I have at times placed almost complete faith in the BBC hourly forecast. If the little sun icon is there for 18:00 in BN21 then that is what WILL be happening. This is of course the whole point of the hourly forecast - to give the impression they know what is coming. Unfortunately, I have finally realised that this information is not much better than guesswork. It might be sunny, it might be raining, it might not - who knows?

What is the best website for a weather forecast? Am I right in thinking they are all of very limited value?

I think you're right. Yesterday afternoon a case in point - BBC and the Met Office both agreed it would be wet in the morning. One said it would be sunny in the afternoon (it was), one forecast rain throughout the afternoon. It's no accident that the BBC don't leave up yesterday's forecast.

 

[cardboard]

Weather underground works for me. Great app and pretty accurate

 

[AmexRuislip]

Around this time of year I become much more interested in the weather. In fact most mornings I spend pretty much obsessed by what it is going to be like later in the day.

On the rare occasions that we have nailed on dryness and/or warmth then all is well. On days like today where the BBC are confidently forecasting "sunshine and showers" all day it becomes more of an issue.

I have at times placed almost complete faith in the BBC hourly forecast. If the little sun icon is there for 18:00 in BN21 then that is what WILL be happening. This is of course the whole point of the hourly forecast - to give the impression they know what is coming. Unfortunately, I have finally realised that this information is not much better than guesswork. It might be sunny, it might be raining, it might not - who knows?

What is the best website for a weather forecast? Am I right in thinking they are all of very limited value?

I usually rely on the forecasters from where I work, they're pretty accurate, and they have access to a radar that actually tracks rain

 

[The Clamp]

Around this time of year I become much more interested in the weather. In fact most mornings I spend pretty much obsessed by what it is going to be like later in the day.

On the rare occasions that we have nailed on dryness and/or warmth then all is well. On days like today where the BBC are confidently forecasting "sunshine and showers" all day it becomes more of an issue.

I have at times placed almost complete faith in the BBC hourly forecast. If the little sun icon is there for 18:00 in BN21 then that is what WILL be happening. This is of course the whole point of the hourly forecast - to give the impression they know what is coming. Unfortunately, I have finally realised that this information is not much better than guesswork. It might be sunny, it might be raining, it might not - who knows?

What is the best website for a weather forecast? Am I right in thinking they are all of very limited value?

My built In iPhone thing seems to predict with great accuracy.
Weather is one of the things in life you can do nought about. Pack a showerproof jacket with a hood and you’ll be pretty set in the U.K. we very rarely get extreme weather. Wellies in the boot of the car should cover most eventualities this time of the year.

 

[Bry Nylon]

I live on the same lane as one of the BBC weather forecasters who present the main forecast after the 6 o'clock and 10 o'clock news, plus the woman who presents the weather on ITV breakfast. I've no idea why this quiet corner is so over-represented with meteorologists but it is quite handy for up-to-the-minute forecasts when you're putting the bins out.

 

[schmunk]

My built In iPhone thing seems to predict with great accuracy.
Weather is one of the things in life you can do nought about. Pack a showerproof jacket with a hood and you’ll be pretty set in the U.K. we very rarely get extreme weather. Wellies in the boot of the car should cover most eventualities this time of the year.

Likewise, my Google Assistant weather data on my phone seems pretty accurate. It told me I would get absolutely ****ing soaked yesterday morning, and yesterday morning I got absolutely ****ing soaked.

 

[casbom]

I keep an eye on a couple of twitter posts, one the MetOffice and the other [MENTION=24872]london[/MENTION]SnowWatch who I find to be accurate with what the weather is going to be doing that day. However no one can predict actual sunshine for a particular hour if that's what your after!

 

[The Clamp]

Likewise, my Google Assistant weather data on my phone seems pretty accurate. It told me I would get absolutely ****ing soaked yesterday morning, and yesterday morning I got absolutely ****ing soaked.

Ha! Me too. The state of the day shift who cycle into work to let me go home is usually a good indicator of weather condition in the outside world!

 

[beorhthelm]

forecasts are wonky this time of year, because they can be made hours before, previous day, and things are changing. the path of a big rain cloud is not accurately predictable, it may or may not exhaust itself, track further north/south/east/west, move slower, faster, and thats assuming they forecast it existing. much easier when its simply a front with hundred of miles of rain lasting many hours, can say "rain in the morning clearing by 1pm" with some accuracy.

best thing is to look at the radar, thats real time, and judge for yourself the likely path.

 

[The Clamp]

Maybe it's my imagination but rain doesn't seem to last as long as it used to? We seem to get more downpours and less prolonged periods of drizzle. Anybody else noticed?

 

[LamieRobertson]

It’s a forecast ...based on info .....like many forecasts its right and then could be wrong ....generally the met office is more right than wrong ...when you have low pressures its a bit more unpredictable.
On my phone no use accuweather which i find quite good

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Around this time of year I become much more interested in the weather. In fact most mornings I spend pretty much obsessed by what it is going to be like later in the day.

On the rare occasions that we have nailed on dryness and/or warmth then all is well. On days like today where the BBC are confidently forecasting "sunshine and showers" all day it becomes more of an issue.

I have at times placed almost complete faith in the BBC hourly forecast. If the little sun icon is there for 18:00 in BN21 then that is what WILL be happening. This is of course the whole point of the hourly forecast - to give the impression they know what is coming. Unfortunately, I have finally realised that this information is not much better than guesswork. It might be sunny, it might be raining, it might not - who knows?

What is the best website for a weather forecast? Am I right in thinking they are all of very limited value?

The BBC automated forecasts are computer generated and liable to changes each time new data becomes avaialble.

In fact all the 'app' forecasts out there (Accuweather, Apple) are computer generated , most from the GFS data set. This is generated 4x daily and is liable to fluctuations.

This chart represents an ensemble view of temperatures forecast for somewhere just inland from the Sussex coast.



The 'forecast' in all of the 22 options that the apps use is the black line, the Operational run. As this shows, for temperature the Op run is at the lower end of the possible outcomes from the 13th and a cold outlier later.

The forecasts by the like of the Met Office / BBC that use a human forecaster are FAR more reliable, as it allows interpretation of the range of possible outcomes like this, and more importantly can include output from all the other major forecasting organisations.

Even an amateur human forecaster can out-perform the apps etc 95% of the time.

 

[Moshe Gariani]

The BBC automated forecasts are computer generated and liable to changes each time new data becomes avaialble.

In fact all the 'app' forecasts out there (Accuweather, Apple) are computer generated , most from the GFS data set. This is generated 4x daily and is liable to fluctuations.

This chart represents an ensemble view of temperatures forecast for somewhere just inland from the Sussex coast.

View attachment 109202

The 'forecast' in all of the 22 options that the apps use is the black line, the Operational run. As this shows, for temperature the Op run is at the lower end of the possible outcomes from the 13th and a cold outlier later.

The forecasts by the like of the Met Office / BBC that use a human forecaster are FAR more reliable, as it allows interpretation of the range of possible outcomes like this, and more importantly can include output from all the other major forecasting organisations.

Even an amateur human forecaster can out-perform the apps etc 95% of the time.

Thank you for contributing. So, if I'm right, the advice is to pretty much ignore website or app "automated" forecasts (hourly, daily, weekly...) and try to find a better way of making my own prediction based on an accumulation of sources including radar. Could you give a brief Idiots Guide to the best way of doing that.

How much rain is likely in Pevensey between now and 7.30pm this evening...?!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Thank you for contributing. So, if I'm right, the advice is to pretty much ignore website or app "automated" forecasts (hourly, daily, weekly...) and try to find a better way of making my own prediction based on an accumulation of sources including radar. Could you give a brief Idiots Guide to the best way of doing that.

How much rain is likely in Pevensey between now and 7.30pm this evening...?!

Firstly, let me cover the rainfall in Pevensey. I would suggest that you will see some heavy potentially thundery showers this afternoon, tapering off into the evening.

The radar shows a lot of showers over the UK already, www.raintoday.co.uk

The SE is an area where there is a higher chance of convective rain today, as pe, from Netweather.



This forecast is based upon the upper instability as represented by the CAPE index, shown here:



In terms of an idiots guide, let me pull something together; I've given some guidance a few times in the Snow thread.

 

[Ludensian Gull]

NW Storm Radar is very good for tracking rain . Obviously not a full weather forecast but it'll let you know when you're going to get wet

 

[Papa Lazarou]

NW Storm Radar is very good for tracking rain . Obviously not a full weather forecast but it'll let you know when you're going to get wet

A nowcast.

 

[Napper]

BBC good for the hour . After that they change it so pointless looking

 

[vegster]

The BBC used to use the Met Office for their forecasts but now it's Meteo Group or something. As a fisherman the most important weather for me is wind speed and it's getting harder and harder to get an accurate picture. I use a combination of the BBC, Net Weather and XC Weather and the Rainy Days Rain App on my phone to try to get a picture. However, in Worthing it frequently goes out of the window due to the onshore winds we get on sunny days.

A handy extra pointer for me is looking at the weather station reports on XC Weather, especially St Catherine's Point, Thorney Island and the Greenwich Light Vessel as that gives real-time wind speeds.