Weather forecasters actually know sweet FA don't they!

[Skint Gull]

Trying to decide whether to organise a bbq for this Saturday evening so wanted to get an idea whether there's any chance of it happening.

How can you possibly plan when they are so contradictory:

BBC - BBC Weather | Eastbourne - Heavy Showers

Weather.com - http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-Eastbourne-UKXX1139 - 0% chance of rain

And to think some bastards actually get paid to forecast the weather, might as well just roll a f***ing dice apparently!

 

[Tooting Gull]

Met Office web site (metoffice.gov.uk) is by far the most reliable...although, as you point out, that isn't saying much.

 

[Hove&Albion F.C]

Never believe what the BBC 4 day forecast says. It's always wrong!!

 

[Marc]

never believe anything 4 days in advance is my advice, as I have to watch the weather every working day I've learnt to take weather forecasts with a pinch of salt, the metoffice rain radar is what I live by.

 

[johnhammond]

Use the MetOffice forecast, though only days 1-3 should be counted on, 4-5 give a general idea of what will be going on (though that's not much use for the forecast at a given point). Next best is NetWeather, though the ability to read charts and maps is needed (but helpful as you can see what's what). Never use weather.com or MetCheck = goons.

The problem with this weekend is a front is coming in, the MetOffice model thinks it will be quick, the other thinks it will be slow. At some point, it'll rain

Remember weather is chaotic, and the equations solved to forecast it don't have an exact solution. The only way to get a perfect forecast is to know the conditions at every point in the atmosphere (and near the sun), and then have an infinitely large computer. Easy.

(And I do get paid to study the weather; it rocks).

 

[Marc]

Use the MetOffice forecast, though only days 1-3 should be counted on, 4-5 give a general idea of what will be going on (though that's not much use for the forecast at a given point). Next best is NetWeather, though the ability to read charts and maps is needed (but helpful as you can see what's what). Never use weather.com or MetCheck = goons.

The problem with this weekend is a front is coming in, the MetOffice model thinks it will be quick, the other thinks it will be slow. At some point, it'll rain

Remember weather is chaotic, and the equations solved to forecast it don't have an exact solution. The only way to get a perfect forecast is to know the conditions at every point in the atmosphere (and near the sun), and then have an infinitely large computer. Easy.

(And I do get paid to study the weather; it rocks).

is netweathers rain radar any better than metoffices? not sure about subscribing (payment) when the MOs seems to be very reliable from my knowledge of it.

 

[Shinbreath]

They are also trying to tell us what the climate will be like in 80 years time !!!.. Whats the chances of getting that right when they cant even predict the next 3 days correctly

 

[johnhammond]

Netweather's updates every 5 minutes, and is a lot higher resolution than the MetOffice (I've never figured out why the MO still uses the crappy version).

This is what the netweather one showed earlier, with a lot more detail than the MO (no idea who drew the arrows on)

 

[johnhammond]

They are also trying to tell us what the climate will be like in 80 years time !!!.. Whats the chances of getting that right when they cant even predict the next 3 days correctly

Climate is a lot easier in many ways, as forecasting for a town in 3 days you need to know the exact locations/dimensions of every cloud, etc. But for climate, for a basic idea you only really need to know if there is cloud or not over an entire region.

 

[Marc]

Netweather's updates every 5 minutes, and is a lot higher resolution than the MetOffice (I've never figured out why the MO still uses the crappy version).

This is what the netweather one showed earlier, with a lot more detail than the MO (no idea who drew the arrows on)

oohh that is alot better thanks, will pass this info onto my boss so he can pay for it! thanks mate

 

[johnhammond]

No worries