[News] UK economy shrinks in April

[beorhthelm]

I'm not a Tory apologist (Boris and his party need removing as soon as possible), but this one doesn't feel like one that should be pushed. I did a bit of reading around it, and from what I found it's a very problematic headline that hides a lot of detail. Within that detail, it turns out that while it's *possible* Sunak could have acted differently and saved us £11bn, the reality is that the circumstances to make that happen were not exactly straight forward and the level of risk that taking the proposed approach would have entailed could probably have been described as "irresponsible to pursue".

There's plenty for us to attack the Tories over, but this one feels like a dangerous one as it's easily defended.

as i read it, the £11bn claim assumes government could have refinanced £600bn of debt in six months. it's a theoretical saving and overlooks the economic and political sensitives (loss of independance of BoE in the process). no other country is follow a similar policy of refinancing all their debt as suggested.

 

[Simster]

Not actually that bothered, as it was meant as a flippant remark. Even so, it may be a year or two out of date (documents like this are never actually current) but if gives the gist. Probably better to be part of the UK economy right now than maybe Ukraine, Russia, Yemen or Peru perhaps.

Yes, we are definitely doing better than Ukraine, Russia, Yemen or Peru. You make an excellent point. Well worth highlighting this as a "positive fact" about the UK economy. Well done.

 

[Simster]

the £11bn claim assumes government could have refinanced £600bn of debt in six months. it's a theoretical saving and overlooks the economic and political sensitives (loss of independance of BoE in the process). no other country is follow a similar policy of refinancing all their debt as suggested.

All true of course, but note that similar allowances were not made for Gordon Brown's decision to sell our gold when the price was at a market low.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Certainly does ... if you read deeper in the article, you can see that the fact quoted is using data from 2020. So the article has been updated. Probably needs further updating, but the stat quoted is pretty recent - recent enough to be relevant.

So nothing major has happened in the world since 2020?

 

[Audax]

So nothing major has happened in the world since 2020?

Of course plenty has changed. But your post was misleading, and needed correcting.

I'm also aware that this sort of data tends to come out in dribbles and often on a long delay. Anyway, I got curious and thought I'd see if I could find a more reputable source than Wikipedia. Maybe try this one: https://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/united-kingdom/ . Looks like it's using 2019 data - so the wiki article actually has more recent data. Anyway, this source had UK in 17th for disposable income in 2019, rather than 15th for 2020 from the Wiki article.

It's likely recent events will shake that up, but the data to prove that will take a while to come through.

 

[LamieRobertson]

I've recently started my first foray into the stock market. But the dip they say, but it looks like I could have picked a better time. Currently 30% of my allocated cash is invested, I am slowly going to enter positions over the next twelve months as I think a bearish market is probably likely. Any advice appreciated though.

I’m fairly fully invested …but with a 10% ftse short to give capital some protection…..if prices continue to drift down I’ll drip more in (but not add new cash to my stock account)

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

How does this compare to other comparable European nations?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Of course plenty has changed. But your post was misleading, and needed correcting.

I'm also aware that this sort of data tends to come out in dribbles and often on a long delay. Anyway, I got curious and thought I'd see if I could find a more reputable source than Wikipedia. Maybe try this one: https://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/united-kingdom/ . Looks like it's using 2019 data - so the wiki article actually has more recent data. Anyway, this source had UK in 17th for disposable income in 2019, rather than 15th for 2020 from the Wiki article.

It's likely recent events will shake that up, but the data to prove that will take a while to come through.

My post was simply a copy and paste at the top of the article.

 

[Simster]

How does this compare to other comparable European nations?

I think we all know the answer to that. So much so that I can't be arsed to google for an answer. France, Germany, Benelux and Scandinavia will all be somewhere between flat lining and modest to low growth. i.e. better than us.

It absolutely isn't the fault of Brexit, the way Brexit was implemented or having a clueless incompetent corrupt government in charge. If anything, it's the fault of remainers and the last Labour government.

 

[Bry Nylon]

I think we all know the answer to that. So much so that I can't be arsed to google for an answer. France, Germany, Benelux and Scandinavia will all be somewhere between flat lining and modest to low growth. i.e. better than us.

Look. We're doing better that Yemen and Peru. What more do you want, ffs? Can't we all just move on?

 

[Pretty Plnk Fairy]

if the economy is shrinking then things get cheaper as will be smaller and another victory for our gloryious leader Boris who has his finger on the button

Regards

DF

 

[beorhthelm]

How does this compare to other comparable European nations?

looked for but cant find announcment dates. europe generally doesnt like doing month on month, sticking to quarterly (later but less revision).

everywhere is going to tank during the year, as the oil price rises, and supplies cut.

 

[Pretty Plnk Fairy]

I think we all know the answer to that. So much so that I can't be arsed to google for an answer. France, Germany, Benelux and Scandinavia will all be somewhere between flat lining and modest to low growth. i.e. better than us.

It absolutely isn't the fault of Brexit, the way Brexit was implemented or having a clueless incompetent corrupt government in charge. If anything, it's the fault of remainers and the last Labour government.

and BLM

Regards

DF

 

[razer]

The last recession started in 2008. Bearing in mind the average length of time between recessions is generally between eight to ten years, this one coming is somewhat overdue and not unexpected.

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

I've read the whole thread and there are no suggestions about what to do about this. How do we grow the economy?

No ideas off the table?

 

[zefarelly]

It's in their effing DNA isn't it. Cost of living crisis, process going up for everything, what shall we do? Yeah, chuck some fuel on the fire.

It'll be coal . . . .petrol's too expensive.

 

[zefarelly]

The last recession started in 2008. Bearing in mind the average length of time between recessions is generally between eight to ten years, this one coming is somewhat overdue and not unexpected.

given we've been screwed by the governemt for nealr 13 years we never really came out of that recession.

the only thing thats gone up is house prices

 

[beorhthelm]

I've read the whole thread and there are no suggestions about what to do about this. How do we grow the economy?

No ideas off the table?

short term there's not a lot that can be done. the major policy tools to avoid recession involve spending, with inflation as it is that off the table. the root causes are supply chain constraints and oil prices. we cant do much about the former (long term bring production back from offshore, at costs), the second we could begin increasing production or rather bring existing production back to market. but wont because policy. until then investment and spending will be constrained as everyone preserves what they have for the next cycle.

 

[razer]

given we've been screwed by the governemt for nealr 13 years we never really came out of that recession.

the only thing thats gone up is house prices

We've been screwed by government since it was invented so nothing new.

 

[zefarelly]

How does this compare to other comparable European nations?

There aren't any

They're all in Europe.