Trump

[Stat Brother]

Based on?

You've not been keeping up with insight political reportage.

 

[Mellotron]

You've not been keeping up with insight political reportage.

Clearly not.

 

[Mellotron]

From an article on Reddit:

#1. Biden’s lead is larger than any presidential race in the last 20 years

In the final weekend in 2000, George W. Bush led by 2 points in an averaging of national polls before he won. In 2004, Bush lead by 2.3 points before he won. In 2008, Barack Obama led by 6.4 percent before he won. In 2012, it was a narrow half percent before he won again. In 2016, Clinton was ahead by an average of 2.9 percent nationally, which was still within the margin of error, before she won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College. Biden, according to the FiveThirtyEight election analysis, is up 8.6 percent.

No, national polls do not tell exactly what is going to happen in the Electoral College and thus who will win the White House. The presidential race is a state-by-state contest. After all, in 2016 Clinton did win the popular vote by 2.1 percent, making the national polling both spot on and totally irrelevant.

But the general rule of thumb is that if a presidential candidate is winning by at least 5 percent nationally then the state-by-state analysis is largely academic. In 2008, the polls were spot on predicting Obama’s eventual 7.2 percent win. That netted him 365 electoral votes and winning states that no Democrat had won in a generation, including Indiana and North Carolina. Who cared about Florida polls then?

Biden’s lead in the closing days in 2020 is not just significantly bigger than Clinton’s in 2016, it is bigger than Obama’s in 2008.

One more time to emphasize: Biden’s lead in national polls right now is stronger than Obama’s was in 2008 when he won big.

#2. There are, more or less, no third parties to gum things up

The biggest structural change to 2016 is not discussed enough. Third parties — specifically the Green Party and Libertarian Party — had banner years in 2016. It made sense. Trump and Clinton were the least liked presidential nominees in modern American history and voters were looking for alternatives.

That is not the case this year. In 2020, third parties are basically irrelevant. Few Americans could probably even name who is running on these tickets. And consider this: In 2016, the Libertarian ticket featured two serious former Republican governors. In 2020, the Libertarian ticket involves a South Carolina part-time psychology professor with a running mate who is a podcaster that rose through politics as the running mate earlier this year to satirical candidate Vermin Supreme of Massachusetts.

In 2016, Green Party candidate Jill Stein got more votes in Wisconsin than the difference between Trump and Clinton there. She was also a factor in Pennsylvania. This time, the Green Party and Libertarian parties are getting such a small level of support that vaunted polling organizations like the NBC News/Wall Street Journal collaboration didn’t even ask about those candidates, but lumped them into the “other” category.

If you dive into the polling numbers in 2020, you will find that three developments have gone Biden’s way in polling. First, white working-class women have moved slightly away from Trump over concerns about health care. Second, the number of seniors backing Trump has dropped due to COVID-19. Third, that basically, all third-party voters in 2016 are backing Biden as the alternative to Trump.

#3. Early voting has changed how we should feel about 2020

Unlike 2016, there are simply fewer question marks about the Democratic vote in 2020. That’s because of how we vote now.

Due to the pandemic, every state has allowed some form of mail-in voting. Democrats, in particular, have decided to use this route. That means there is less guessing if people will vote. We know, with tangible evidence, that they are voting at record-breaking amounts. We know that Democrats are turning out. Democrats also know which groups are disproportionately not voting at the same levels as everyone else in 2020, like among the Latinx communities, so they are able to dispatch Kamala Harris, Julian Castro, and Democratic National Committee chairman Tom Perez to attempt to rally Latinx voters.

Clinton could do none of that in 2016. If she could have, maybe she would have showed up in Wisconsin. She famously never did.

Now all the question marks are about whether Trump can close the gap.

#4. There are no October surprises

The 2016 election toggled back and forth between whether Trump had bad news and bad poll numbers or Clinton did. It was a game of hot potato. After former FBI director Jim Comey announced days before the election he was reopening an investigation into Clinton’s e-mails, Clinton was left holding the potato.

But there is no toggling back and forth in the polls between Biden and Trump in 2020 and there isn’t a potato.

Noting has moved the polls in a big way since March except for the status of the coronavirus. A Supreme Court opening did nothing. Trump’s positive COVID-19 test did nothing. Unfounded allegations about Hunter Biden did nothing. And last week, as the nation received very good news about the country’s economy, the news was swallowed up by record-high levels of COVID-19 cases.

The 2020 presidential race hasn’t really changed in eight months and Biden’s lead is large. There is no data point anyone can credibly point to that suggests 2016 is going to happen again.

 

[sparkie]

The red wave is coming.

The red wave goodbye.


To be serious it may well be close, very close.

 

[sydney]

I can't shake the feeling he will win again. And even if he doesn't, he will claim he has, and after 4 years of tacit approval and outright incitement from the ****, a number of his, well armed followers won't be happy.

i think he'll lose by a fair margin , what happens after that remains to be seen ....melt down ...?? then we'll see whose the gullible eejit.....don't say you weren't told ....if and when Biden wins this election all hell will break loose.

 

[Mellotron]

From an article on Reddit:

For balance...

Reasons Trump could still win;

#1 Coordinated voter suppression efforts in nearly every red/purple state in the country, making it difficult or impossible for people to vote.

#2 Logistical suppression like long lines and limited polling places intended to make urban voters face massive hurdles.

#3 Voter roll purges

#4 Poll Taxes

#5 Confusing districting/gerrmandering

#6 Disenfranchisement

#7 Outright voter fraud like Texas' attempt to throw out over 100,000 legally cast votes, just because they are from Harris County (Houston Metro).

#8 The Electoral College

#9 The media being unwilling to stand up when Trump tries to mount a coup, should he lose.

 

[knocky1]

The Red Wave is going to sink political history and be the biggest biggly Election victory in the Great Again United States of America. Just need to grab Minnesota and all other States to better loser Ronald Reagan in 1984.

 

[Medwayseagull]

The only people banging on about a red wave are Trump himself and the sycophants who support him.

 

[Klaas]

i think he'll lose by a fair margin , what happens after that remains to be seen ....melt down ...?? then we'll see whose the gullible eejit.....don't say you weren't told ....if and when Biden wins this election all hell will break loose.

Sorry, what? What exactly are you telling me? That if Biden wins that 'all hell will break loose'? Is that your prediction? And that makes you some kind of genius how?

Just to help you out, the post of mine you quoted, was implying the same thing that you are saying

 

[Pavilionaire]

If Biden wins it will be interesting to see if it is by a big enough margin for Trump to concede on the night, or whether it is small enough to give Trump enough reason for a recount.

I've got a nasty feeling Trump will call foul and claim the election was rigged, and that could turn into huge civil unrest in states with small democrat majorities.

But Trump won't care, as that will be the signal for the Proud Boys to Stand Up and Come Forward.

 

[Stat Brother]

If Biden wins it will be interesting to see if it is by a big enough margin for Trump to concede on the night, or whether it is small enough to give Trump enough reason for a recount.

I've got a nasty feeling Trump will call foul and claim the election was rigged, and that could turn into huge civil unrest in states with small democrat majorities.

But Trump won't care, as that will be the signal for the Proud Boys to Stand Up and Come Forward.

It's quite rare for the Presidency to be called on election night.

Trump will get enough to announce himself as the next President of the United States, irrespective of the vote.

 

[nwgull]

I'd bet my house that Trump will announce victory on Tuesday or in the early hours of Wednesday. It's all part of the plan to challenge the outcome of the election and whip his cult following up into a gun-waving frenzy. The only thing that prevents this is if Biden wins somewhere like Texas and he's looking at a 200+ majority in the ECVs.

 

[sydney]

Sorry, what? What exactly are you telling me? That if Biden wins that 'all hell will break loose'? Is that your prediction? And that makes you some kind of genius how?

Just to help you out, the post of mine you quoted, was implying the same thing that you are saying

gun sales are through the roof , Bidens campaign bus was nearly run off the road by Trump supporters in suv's ....not looking good Trump looses the red necks go berserk , Trump wins the red necks go berserk ....you really are clueless aren't you , you are so surprised we share the same view on this election ... priceless.......wake up junior , they'll be round to take your house off you soon ...

 

[Stat Brother]

I know this was the shot he wanted.
But still I bet he couldn't believe it paid off:-

[tweet]1322679256217014282[/tweet]

 

[Badger Boy]

The lack of a third party candidate is why we should have such confidence that Biden, and the Democrat party across the country, are going to win so handsomely.

Arizona, Georgia and Iowa will all be swinging back blue and potentially Texas and Florida as well. Obama picked up 365 and 332 votes in the Electoral College respectively. Will Biden be able to beat Obama's record?

Ronald Reagan got 489 and 525, out of 538 both times, respectively. Incredible, especially given he'd beaten an incumbent president in Jimmy Carter.

 

[father_and_son]

Ronald Reagan got 489 and 525, out of 538 both times, respectively. Not surprising given he'd beaten an incumbent moron in Jimmy Carter.

Corrected for you.
And I'm sure in 30years time someone will correct someone else who seemed surprised Trump lost.

 

[Eeyore]

The red wave goodbye.


To be serious it may well be close, very close.

Based on?

I have Spence Syndrome. I think I caught if a bloke called Quentin Anon.

I lay awake at night chanting it.

 

[nwgull]

The lack of a third party candidate is why we should have such confidence that Biden, and the Democrat party across the country, are going to win so handsomely.

Arizona, Georgia and Iowa will all be swinging back blue and potentially Texas and Florida as well. Obama picked up 365 and 332 votes in the Electoral College respectively. Will Biden be able to beat Obama's record?

Ronald Reagan got 489 and 525, out of 538 both times, respectively. Incredible, especially given he'd beaten an incumbent president in Jimmy Carter.

I don't think that they'll have quite enough to win Texas, but the fact that it's even in play as a potential swing state says enough.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

[tweet]1323251558939795456[/tweet]

 

[bhafc99]

If Biden wins either Texas or Florida, or both, Trump will probably be unable to pull off his “I’m the real winner” scam.

Sadly I think both states will just stay Republican by a whisker, which means Biden’s overall win will be solid but not “immediate and overwhelming”, leading us into the nightmare scenario where Trump tries to bluster and intimidate the public by claiming he had it before “it got fixed BAD FRAUD!” - and then leans on his rigged court buddies to try and get the whole thing wiped out.


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