[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[jcdenton08]

It's hilarious

Tories getting a pumping and reform getting smashed as well, whilst taking a good number of votes off the Tories.

Well, the Tories being smashed part is definitely true. Not sure about Reform getting smashed though, they’ve had their best by-election results ever and finished a comfortable third, way ahead of the Libs or Greens combined, neither of which kept their deposit.

I’d love them to **** off, but there is no denying they are taking votes from disillusioned Tories on the right and will gain seats at the GE.

 

[WATFORD zero]

This is what continues to worry me.
Who will they vote for when they can be bothered to vote.

Historically, whoever comes up with the best 3 word slogan

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Dreadful turnout. The actual number of votes for Labour in Wellingborough went up by 107. (13,844 yesterday to 13,737 in 2019). In Kingswood the vote for Labour went down by 5,316 (11,176 yesterday, 16,492 in 2019)
The Conservative vote has, unsurprisingly, collapsed. The "Can't be bothered to vote" party is winning hands down.

Jeez,

Shows the indifference to Labour and the dislike of Tories by their own voters.

I imagine a decent chunk of people couldn't be bothered to vote with another election within months.

 

[Berty23]

Well, the Tories being smashed part is definitely true. Not sure about Reform getting smashed though, they’ve had their best by-election results ever and finished a comfortable third, way ahead of the Libs or Greens combined, neither of which kept their deposit.

I’d love them to **** off, but there is no denying they are taking votes from disillusioned Tories on the right and will gain seats at the GE.

I expect the Tories will see reform and think they need to chase the votes and ignore the fact that some people might be voting Tory while holding their nose but if they go further right then they will lose people at the other end.

 

[jcdenton08]

This is what continues to worry me.
Who will they vote for when they can be bothered to vote.

Historically the Tory vote is underestimated by pollsters. They’re going to lose big regardless this time out, but staunch Tory voters tend to “vote silently”.

 

[Bodian]

Have you ever seen such a sore loser?….

So - Labour haven't done very well, because they 'failed' to get over 50% of the vote. In a safe Tory constituency!

 

[Gwylan]

I’d love them to **** off, but there is no denying they are taking votes from disillusioned Tories on the right and will gain seats at the GE.

I'm not so sure about that. Wellingborough is one of the most "Brexity" constituencies in the country and they got nowhere near winning. They'd have to boost their vote considerably to win any seats

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Well, the Tories being smashed part is definitely true. Not sure about Reform getting smashed though, they’ve had their best by-election results ever and finished a comfortable third, way ahead of the Libs or Greens combined, neither of which kept their deposit.

I’d love them to **** off, but there is no denying they are taking votes from disillusioned Tories on the right and will gain seats at the GE.

They will be upset with the result number wise, there was talk of them realistically getting second.

They were advertising themselves as the real Tory party

I can't see them getting a seat at the election, I imagine the vote will drop off when it comes to the election, Rishi will carry on pushing the vote for reform is a vote for Labour, whilst the combined numbers don't over take Labour in last nights results, they make it a lot closer.

 

[jcdenton08]

So - Labour haven't done very well, because they 'failed' to get over 50% of the vote. In a safe Tory constituency!

Bonkers isn’t it!

 

[jcdenton08]

I'm not so sure about that. Wellingborough is one of the most "Brexity" constituencies in the country and they got nowhere near winning. They'd have to boost their vote considerably to win any seats

The voting context of a GE is very different to that of a by-election - we shall have to see. You could be right.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I'm not so sure about that. Wellingborough is one of the most "Brexity" constituencies in the country and they got nowhere near winning. They'd have to boost their vote considerably to win any seats

There was the same sort of noise around UKIP, they ended up getting 1 seat.

 

[Berty23]

Historically the Tory vote is underestimated by pollsters. They’re going to lose big regardless this time out, but staunch Tory voters tend to “vote silently”.

Is that true? Didn’t the last two exit polls nail it within a handful of seats?

 

[jcdenton08]

There was the same sort of noise around UKIP, they ended up getting 1 seat.

And would’ve got several more (around 13 I believe) with one form of PR based on their vote share.

 

[A1X]

Sunak will believe that he is right, and we are wrong (or rather, irrelevant), he is conditioned to do so. Like his predecessor but one, they will never doubt their own abilities and thoughts.

I think his immediate predecessor is also very much of the opinion that she was right and everyone else was wrong as well, to be fair.

 

[jcdenton08]

Is that true? Didn’t the last two exit polls nail it within a handful of seats?

I didn’t mean exit polls; but rather those from the likes of YouGov and Ipsos polling voting intentions in the lead up to elections. There’s some interesting stuff from the LSE available showing voting intentions compared to votes received over the last 5 or so decades. Tories consistently outperform polled stated voting intentions

 

[Audax]

Dreadful turnout. The actual number of votes for Labour in Wellingborough went up by 107. (13,844 yesterday to 13,737 in 2019). In Kingswood the vote for Labour went down by 5,316 (11,176 yesterday, 16,492 in 2019)
The Conservative vote has, unsurprisingly, collapsed. The "Can't be bothered to vote" party is winning hands down.

Labour in Kingswood actually got fewer votes than the majority the Tories held from 2019. Turn out massively down.

I didn’t mean exit polls; but rather those from the likes of YouGov and Ipsos polling voting intentions in the lead up to elections. There’s some interesting stuff from the LSE available showing voting intentions compared to votes received over the last 5 or so decades. Tories consistently outperform polled stated voting intentions

IIRC, the polling orgs have mostly adjusted their methodology now to try to take account for "shy Tories". I guess we'll see how well they've done with that at the next GE.

 

[chickens]

I’m predicting that Rishi is going to be pushed into announcing an election date by his own party.

His instinct will be to hold on as long as possible, in the hope that there’s an upturn in the party’s fortunes, while those with an axe to grind will grumble and organize below him.

Should there be any sign of an organized coup he’ll immediately push the election button in order to save himself.

Given the absolute state of the Conservative Party, and today’s by-election results, I reckon he has weeks rather than months. His survival (to my mind) depends on the quality of his sources inside the many rival factions within the party.

I don’t believe there’s anyone within the current Conservative Party who’s currently thinking about the country as a whole.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Historically, whoever comes up with the best 3 word slogan

One party should just use that: 'THREE WORD SLOGAN'

And then have ALL of their policies in the same format:

FIX THE NHS
EQUALITY RULES OK
STOP BEING TWATS
PEACE NOT WAR
NO TO VAR
JAFFA CAKE CAKE
BOURBONS BEST BISCUIT
BE KINDER PLEASE
IGNORE ARGUMENTATIVE STRANGERS
BUILD THE STATUES
JUSTICE FOR MONORAIL

 

[Berty23]

I didn’t mean exit polls; but rather those from the likes of YouGov and Ipsos polling voting intentions in the lead up to elections. There’s some interesting stuff from the LSE available showing voting intentions compared to votes received over the last 5 or so decades. Tories consistently outperform polled stated voting intentions

Since they tweaked methods this isn’t the case anymore is it? 5 decades has seen a massive change in how polling works. The polls before the 2019 election nailed it.

Opinion polling for the 2019 United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

In 2017 it was the same.

Opinion polling for the 2017 United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

In 2015 it was a couple of percentage points lower.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I didn’t mean exit polls; but rather those from the likes of YouGov and Ipsos polling voting intentions in the lead up to elections. There’s some interesting stuff from the LSE available showing voting intentions compared to votes received over the last 5 or so decades. Tories consistently outperform polled stated voting intentions

The 'shy tory'.

Yes, there are millions of voters who will vote tory and would prefer to not admit it.

I would imagine they are the sort of people who, if they found a wallet on the street with money in it, would keep it.