- Aug 8, 2005
- 27,189
So here we go again.
Quick reminder for those who didn't follow this tracker in the last few seasons.
The assumption is we need 40 points to stay up (we can argue that, and yes in the last three seasons we didn't quite need it but it has happened in the past and therefore I am sticking with it, hit 40 points and we are almost certainly staying up).
To get these the easiest way is beat the bottom ten teams at home and draw with them away (bottom ten defined as lowest seven not relegated last season plus three promoted, meaning all the way up to Burnley (as we don't play ourselves unfortunately), but not Sheff Utd or above.
So this is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. It pretty much worked the last few seasons although Sheffield United out performed expectations last year. They may drop lower this year, so they are possibly the only rogue ones that also look beatable. Oh and of course Arsenal
The first half of the season looks frankly horrible, with us "expected" to only get 16 of the 40 points in the first 19 games. Truly bed wetting stuff. But then a much easier second half of the season brings us home with a further 24 points.
So here it is for the coming season:
- First five games suggest just 3 points. A big early test that could see the bed wetness return.
- After our first win on October 24th by Christmas we have just 14 points from 14 games. Just out of the bottom three?
- By February 6th, game 23 we have just 20 points, people talking about Potter losing his magic, should he go etc....
- We then have a fantastic 17 points out of 11 games, smashing Palace, Villa, Newcastle, Everton and finally Leeds on 1st May (to relegate them?!)
- We edge to 40 with 3 points out of the last 4 games and yet again watch Man City lift the league trophy on our own patch.
I really hope we do better than above, but we should be aware that is a much more tricky first half than we had last season. Thank god, most of us might not see much of it. Only joking, I'm actually gutted
I'll guess at 45-49 points this season by the way. Last season I was a little high.
Quick reminder for those who didn't follow this tracker in the last few seasons.
The assumption is we need 40 points to stay up (we can argue that, and yes in the last three seasons we didn't quite need it but it has happened in the past and therefore I am sticking with it, hit 40 points and we are almost certainly staying up).
To get these the easiest way is beat the bottom ten teams at home and draw with them away (bottom ten defined as lowest seven not relegated last season plus three promoted, meaning all the way up to Burnley (as we don't play ourselves unfortunately), but not Sheff Utd or above.
So this is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. It pretty much worked the last few seasons although Sheffield United out performed expectations last year. They may drop lower this year, so they are possibly the only rogue ones that also look beatable. Oh and of course Arsenal
The first half of the season looks frankly horrible, with us "expected" to only get 16 of the 40 points in the first 19 games. Truly bed wetting stuff. But then a much easier second half of the season brings us home with a further 24 points.
So here it is for the coming season:
- First five games suggest just 3 points. A big early test that could see the bed wetness return.
- After our first win on October 24th by Christmas we have just 14 points from 14 games. Just out of the bottom three?
- By February 6th, game 23 we have just 20 points, people talking about Potter losing his magic, should he go etc....
- We then have a fantastic 17 points out of 11 games, smashing Palace, Villa, Newcastle, Everton and finally Leeds on 1st May (to relegate them?!)
- We edge to 40 with 3 points out of the last 4 games and yet again watch Man City lift the league trophy on our own patch.
I really hope we do better than above, but we should be aware that is a much more tricky first half than we had last season. Thank god, most of us might not see much of it
. Only joking, I'm actually gutted I'll guess at 45-49 points this season by the way. Last season I was a little high.
