[Misc] Thunderstorms kicking off.....................

[Deleted member 2719]

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Perhaps we could go old school too!

https://youtu.be/D1ZYhVpdXbQ

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Our turn tonight SHIRLEY

 

[Is it PotG?]

Most predictions I can see still say tomorrow.

What do they know, eh?

Hot and sticky all day today

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Our turn tonight SHIRLEY

I think so... French imports

 

[Deleted member 2719]

I think so... French imports

Have you got any projections, is possible to say where and when

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Have you got any projections, is possible to say where and when

The different models have quite different projections of where / when. Some have the best / worst slipping to our West, from say, Chichester westwards, whereas others have the storms Brighton eastwards. This sort of situation will require some 'nowcasting' I think.

Tomorrow aftternoon also looks interesting, as another organised area of storms will come up from NE France and we may get some of those.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

The different models have quite different projections of where / when. Some have the best / worst slipping to our West, from say, Chichester westwards, whereas others have the storms Brighton eastwards. This sort of situation will require some 'nowcasting' I think.

Tomorrow aftternoon also looks interesting, as another organised area of storms will come up from NE France and we may get some of those.

So are you saying Brighton to Chichester could miss the lot?

 

[jakarta]

I think so... French imports

Likely to get up as far as the Thames Estuary? I have a silica dust survey tomorrow on a Quay (Marine dredged aggregates) and it would be pointless going if it going to hiss down with rain...

 

[dazzer6666]

Some starting to kick off in West London & Surrey at the mo...................quite a rapid onset over a wide area

 

[Papa Lazarou]

So are you saying Brighton to Chichester could miss the lot?

Even the pro forecasters struggle to get the location / timing of thunderstorms accurately. The issue those of us within 20 miles of the coast have in this setup, is that despite surface winds, the over flow here is roughly South to North, so yesterday, today and tomorrow, any local storms will develop just to our north and tend to slowly drift away from us. This leaves us reliant upon storms powerful enough to make it across the channel from France.

Tonight, some will make it, but where they 'hit' will be driven by where is France they arise from. Currently there is a lot of activity over France, but this is not moving towards us. The storms inland are also moving away NW.

Tomorrow looks similar, so storms could appear anywhere north of us.

 

[A1X]

So we need to see some development somewhere on the line between Rouen and Amiens under the current setup?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

So we need to see some development somewhere on the line between Rouen and Amiens under the current setup?

Roughly, yes. The next test is whether it survives away from the convection that creates it, in other words, over the Channel.

 

[grubbyhands]

Heavy,bouncing rain and grumbles in the 'ming now. Feeling slightly less close thankfully.

 

[AmexRuislip]

Thunderbolt and lightening very very frightening.



With plenty of thunderstorms due to kick off over the coming days, are there any going on in your neck of the woods

Second downpour in 24 hrs here in HA4.
As soon as it hits ground, it's virtually drying instantly.

 

[Gabbafella]

One brewing over Belgium, any chance that could be our lucky storm?

 

[AmexRuislip]

One brewing over Belgium, any chance that could be our lucky storm?

Storm Tau still will need a visa to come over here

 

[Trevor]

Yes, one going off here. Cat is trying to decide whether he's hungry or scared

 

[ridda]

It's on its way here.
https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang....00;ts=0;z=7;y=48.5852;x=1.269;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

 

[Brok]

I can actually taste it in the air tonight, all metally and smelly…

I hope we're in for a really good show later.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I've been down the beach for the past couple of hours for a swim. Lovely. I noticed darkening skies to the south.

I get home to see that there is a lot going on not far away.