This Year/Last Year

[el punal]

As we are now into squeaky bum time (thank you Fergie!), a little stat comparison for you to peruse :

After 35 matches played these are the standings -

2012/13    P    W    D     L    Pts
           35  14   14     7    56

2013/14    P    W    D     L    Pts
           35  15   11     9    56

The remaining matches played in 2012/13 season were :

                P    W    D     L    Pts
               11    5    4     2    19

So, despite having a great run-in to the end, compared to our promotion rivals, we only secured 19 points from a possible 33.

I reckon that if we keep up our recent consistency we should be ok for the play-offs. Fingers crossed!

 

[big nuts]

19 points sounds about right to make the play-offs, anything less and it looks like 7th or 8th.

 

[Jim D]

If we're going to lose 2 I'd rather it wasn't either Ipswich or Forest. If we can do that I'd fancy us for a playoff spot.

 

[HawkTheSeagull]

If we're going to lose 2 I'd rather it wasn't either Ipswich or Forest. If we can do that I'd fancy us for a playoff spot.

Quite, Id rather we lost to Leicester (who are already out of sight) and one of the bottom teams (cue a massive binfest on here).

 

[Keeping The Dream Alive.]

Our last 10 games the previous season were:

Relegation battle Barnsley (a) L
Play-off/promotion chasing Palace (h) W
Play-off chasing Forest (a) D
Mid-table Charlton (h) D
Play-off chasing Leicester (h) D
Mid-table Middlesbrough (a) W
Relegation battle Peterborough (a) D
Mid-table Blackpool (h) W
Mid-table Leeds (a) W
Relegated Wolves (h) W

What struck me about our run-in last year was that we were fortunate to play 5 teams who essentially had nothing to play for. Our record in those games was W 4 D 1. Significantly 4 of our last 5 games were against sides whose season was over and we won all of them.

This time round 4 of our last 5 games are against sides who will have something to play for - Charlton (h), Blackpool (h), Yeovil (h), Forest (a). On paper we can look at those games (Forest aside) and think they should be easy, but having been in their position before (relegation battle) we know all too well that when a team is scraping at the end of the season they're capable of getting points anywhere. I think you'd much rather be playing mid-table sides.

I think what I'm trying to say is I'm a little more worried about our run-in this year compared to last, despite the fact we're playing lesser sides. Probably over-analysed this but it's so easy to get sucked into it when you mix the excitement of chasing the play-offs and looking at stats

 

[Jim D]

This time around I see that Ipswich, Barnsley, Charlton and Forest will think they have something to fight for when we play them. I would expect that Leicester will either be promoted or all but, Blackpool will be safe and Yeovil will almost certainly be down.

 

[Napper]

Looks easier to get in the play offs on paper. 5 / 6 wins from 11 almost looks likely.

For me now is the time to break into the top 6 , be the chased rather than the chaser.

Beat Ipswich and good chance we will be

 

[Albumen]

We're 4th highest in the 8 game form table. If IF! we had beaten Wigan (like we should have) we'd be 3rd behind Burnley and Leicester.
http://stats.football365.co.uk/dom/ENG/D1/oform.html

And here's the clean sheet table *applauds*
http://stats.football365.co.uk/dom/ENG/D1/clsht.html

And again, only behind Burnley and Leicester in being the most likely team to score first in a game.
http://stats.football365.co.uk/dom/ENG/D1/oppscfst.html

And this is the most interesting table for me. The 5 teams around us in this interceptions table are all struggling. We however have kept the most clean sheets. Does this table show how most teams try to go through the middle because of the speed of both our CBs? And how they cope so well with that?
Clever.

	Team	Interceptions pg	
1	Birmingham		16.6	
2	Brighton		16.5	
3	Blackpool		14.7	
4	Barnsley		14	
5	Bournemouth		13.8	
6	Yeovil		  13.5

Quick! Let's get an English manager in to finish the job . . . .

 

[Keeping The Dream Alive.]

This time around I see that Ipswich, Barnsley, Charlton and Forest will think they have something to fight for when we play them. I would expect that Leicester will either be promoted or all but, Blackpool will be safe and Yeovil will almost certainly be down.

If we're being optimistic we have to hope that Blackpool are already safe and Yeovil already down. In reality, however, I think Blackpool still won't be secure - they are on a terrible run and Charlton have 4 games in hand. I can't see them being 9/10 points clear from relegation with 3 games to go. They might well come here needing a win or a point to secure survival. With Yeovil there's more of a chance of them already being down, but again I would be surprised if they're 6/7 points adrift with 2 games to go. Pretty sure they will come here needing a result of some sort as well.

 

[tinycowboy]

Quick! Let's get an English manager in to finish the job . . . .

You jest Albumen, but the stats don't lie: over the past three seasons, ALL clubs promoted from the Championship to the Premier League had a BRITISH manager. Wait a sec....all RELEGATED teams also had a British manager......and......just about ALL teams had a British manager. Well, now I'm confused: having a British manager is, at the same time, guaranteed to get you promoted AND relegated AND mid-table. How does THAT work??

 

[Albumen]

You jest Albumen, but the stats don't lie: over the past three seasons, ALL clubs promoted from the Championship to the Premier League had a BRITISH manager. Wait a sec....all RELEGATED teams also had a British manager......and......just about ALL teams had a British manager. Well, now I'm confused: having a British manager is, at the same time, guaranteed to get you promoted AND relegated AND mid-table. How does THAT work??

All tactical nous is found in piglets pies. We just need someone that can speak to English caterers clearly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jK2WeQEGLNE

[yt]jK2WeQEGLNE[/yt]

 

[Wozza]

This time round 4 of our last 5 games are against sides who will have something to play for - Charlton (h), Blackpool (h), Yeovil (h), Forest (a). On paper we can look at those games (Forest aside) and think they should be easy, but having been in their position before (relegation battle) we know all too well that when a team is scraping at the end of the season they're capable of getting points anywhere. I think you'd much rather be playing mid-table sides.

Hmmm... I think we're much better playing teams who have a go at us rather than sitting back, and teams with something to play for are more likely to do that.

 

[jgmcdee]

You jest Albumen, but the stats don't lie: over the past three seasons, ALL clubs promoted from the Championship to the Premier League had a BRITISH manager. Wait a sec....all RELEGATED teams also had a British manager......and......just about ALL teams had a British manager. Well, now I'm confused: having a British manager is, at the same time, guaranteed to get you promoted AND relegated AND mid-table. How does THAT work??

You made the classic mistake of confounding variables. In fact, having a British manager is guaranteed to get you promoted OR relegated OR mid-table.

Hope that clears things up for you.

 

[Notters]

Graph of league positions last season and this below. Think we've done remarkably well, considering we've got a new manager, a new system and had lots of turmoil in the summer and have had a ridiculous injury list... Not to mention the dreadful weather and the effect that it must have had on the "training ground" such as it is.

View attachment 52083

 

[Seagull over Canaryland]

I agree that on paper we now have a great chance but there are still one or two tricky fixtures awaiting us. Ok Leicester won't be easy. I'm more concerned about the sides at the other end of the table. Invariably one of the Clubs fighting relegation puts in a decent run to escape the drop. Barnsley are a good example and we never seem to play well at their place.

I agree it would be good to get points on the board now rather than have to chase results and endure a very tense run in. We could do without having to get a result at Forest on the last day, although it would be a hell of an atmosphere, especially if they are still in contention. So I would happily take 19 points from a possible 33 right now. That should put us in the play offs. Last season it was enough to give us more of a comfortable margin than we might have anticipated.

 

[Rugrat]

I think what I'm trying to say is I'm a little more worried about our run-in this year compared to last, despite the fact we're playing lesser sides. Probably over-analysed this but it's so easy to get sucked into it when you mix the excitement of chasing the play-offs and looking at stats

There were a few differences .. but one of the biggest was the wheels coming completely off for Leicester and Croydon plus partially off for Forest .. all of which were above us at this point. That must have given us an extra boost. This season I can't see the same happening except Forest are trying hard to replicate their failure.

In saying that I think 75 could/should do it and on paper we have got what it takes. I agree that teams at the bottom will be fighting for survival but they are at the bottom for good reason!!

 

[tinycowboy]

You made the classic mistake of confounding variables. In fact, having a British manager is guaranteed to get you promoted OR relegated OR mid-table.

Hope that clears things up for you.

It's like the clouds have dissolved into a deep blue sky. If I'd paused for thought, I'd have realised that what was required was not a non-contrasting conjunction, but one that offered the possibility of alternative outcomes. Still got the feeling that an English manager might make a huge (or at least a small) difference - good or bad.

 

[Machiavelli]

Our last 10 games the previous season were:

Relegation battle Barnsley (a) L
Play-off/promotion chasing Palace (h) W
Play-off chasing Forest (a) D
Mid-table Charlton (h) D
Play-off chasing Leicester (h) D
Mid-table Middlesbrough (a) W
Relegation battle Peterborough (a) D
Mid-table Blackpool (h) W
Mid-table Leeds (a) W
Relegated Wolves (h) W

What struck me about our run-in last year was that we were fortunate to play 5 teams who essentially had nothing to play for. Our record in those games was W 4 D 1. Significantly 4 of our last 5 games were against sides whose season was over and we won all of them.

This time round 4 of our last 5 games are against sides who will have something to play for - Charlton (h), Blackpool (h), Yeovil (h), Forest (a). On paper we can look at those games (Forest aside) and think they should be easy, but having been in their position before (relegation battle) we know all too well that when a team is scraping at the end of the season they're capable of getting points anywhere. I think you'd much rather be playing mid-table sides.

I think what I'm trying to say is I'm a little more worried about our run-in this year compared to last, despite the fact we're playing lesser sides. Probably over-analysed this but it's so easy to get sucked into it when you mix the excitement of chasing the play-offs and looking at stats

I'm with Wozza. Those teams that are in the relegation scrap will have to come at us to try and get three points -- rather than do what they did in the first half of the season which is play out for a draw, and being allowed 30/40/50 seconds to take goal-kicks and even throw-ins. This ought to play into our hands, particularly if we have a couple of speedsters flanking Leo who are on-form and direct in their play. I'm thinking of Lingard and Buckley here. KLL has explosive pace particularly from a standing start, but he's hardly direct, preferring to wait for his opponent to catch up with him before beating him, rather than bombing on.
Beyond the fact that we've (now) got just one more away game than home game, I'm of the view that we've got one of the better run-ins. We're capable of winning all our remaining home games, and if we do that and manage just one away victory, I think that will be enough to see us into the play-offs. What we really want to avoid -- which we didn't last season -- is too many draws.

 

[Machiavelli]

There were a few differences .. but one of the biggest was the wheels coming completely off for Leicester and Croydon plus partially off for Forest .. all of which were above us at this point. That must have given us an extra boost. This season I can't see the same happening except Forest are trying hard to replicate their failure.

In saying that I think 75 could/should do it and on paper we have got what it takes. I agree that teams at the bottom will be fighting for survival but they are at the bottom for good reason!!

With Derby perhaps joining in on the downward slide?

 

[Rugrat]

With Derby perhaps joining in on the downward slide?

They play each other Saturday ... best result for us (I think) would be a draw, although I can make an argument for either of them to win! A result either way will be a huge confidence booster/dampner that we might be best avoiding