The ultimate REFERENDUM thread

[5ways]

The argument that Pastafarian makes showed why your insistence we will have to agree to free movement of people is untrue.



https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?332756-Europe-In-or-Out/page23 Can you please differentiate what part of our doing well is down to domestic government policy and UK innovation and what part is entirely due to being in the EU? How has the ongoing Euro crisis effected the wider European economy and what knock on effect has it had on ours?

Speaking of the Euro crisis ... a large part of your criticism of the case for Brexit is a leap into the dark/economic uncertainty. What is the biggest internal threat to the future of European economic security? (Already given you a clue) Can you guarantee the ongoing Euro crisis will not continue to cause severe difficulties for numerous European countries suppressing growth exacerbating unemployment and possibly causing some members to leave monetary union? We have no influence on resolving this crisis in or out but pay the price none the less.



You'll go with a source that supports your view and would have seen us in the centre of the Eurozone debacle.

I prefer a more balanced source that gives both sides of the argument and cites other surveys including your worst case scenario ones.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32793642

If we want a deal with a similar sort of access to the EU internal market that we presently enjoy, yes, free movement will be part of that package.

The Thatcher reforms were of course central, but so was the way that the EU changed the shape of the UK economy.

Many economists contend what matters most is not funds transferred between Brussels and London, or even claims of jobs created or destroyed. Instead, the central issue is how EU membership has changed the shape of the British economy — its competitiveness and openness to other markets — through the impact on thousands of companies such as Nifco.
“Competition forces these guys to improve or exit,” says Professor Nick Bloom of Stanford University, in words that echo Mr Matthews’ experiences. “The single European market increased competition and forced British firms to increase the level of innovation.”

and

Professor Nick Crafts of Warwick University, Britain’s pre-eminent economic historian, adds that opening to trade allowed the UK to bounce back after falling behind its neighbours. “Britain’s really, really big problem in the 1960s was very weak competition,” he says. “Trade liberalisation was a major factor in improving competition . . . It removed weak firms, made management better and improved industrial relations — more than Thatcher.”

and the killer quote :
Warwick University’s Prof Crafts says no one can know exactly how much the EU directly benefited Britain, but a 10 per cent rise in prosperity is a reasonable estimate. “That dominates any reasonable idea of what the membership fee is,” he concludes. He cautions there is little evidence that joining the bloc permanently increased Britain’s growth rate, since the EU primarily boosted the economy in the 1970s and 1990s. But leaving the union could jeopardise the UK’s gains from increased openness and competition — the contributions economists overwhelmingly say the EU has made to British prosperity."

The EU helped to free up trade, and as such helped us to become the swashbuckling globally-minded trading nation we all want the UK to be.

With the last point on the Eurozone question. You're right that we're subject to the consequences in or out. But you're totally wrong to say we have no say in the matter whether we're in or out.

Essentially and fundamentally Britain can help strengthen the northern European hand and bolster the case for stronger budget rules inside the Eurozone. This would be part of our broader national interest and we have greater influence on this inside the EU. Our special status means however that we do not have to contribute to eurozone bailout funds. We get to help shape a system we want and benefit from that reform process. It's not easy but it's a proactive move we can actually take rather than stick our heads in the sand and simply ignore the problem. We can get stuck in and fight for the Europe we want or we can watch it change in ways we don't like from the outside. More control, more influence = in.


The FT is balanced and independent you just don't like its conclusions. I might take that argument on board if I was only quoting the Guardian.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I'm glad I'm not the only one. I admit I'm a layman, but I'm very educated and understand the theory, yet I'm no closer to understanding what is actually being offered. If I don't know when I understand the concepts, how will the average person in Britain truly understand what they're voting for...

It is impossible for anyone to give a definitive answer about the future on either side. There are numerous reasons why people want to leave and to stay. Cameron made a similar point as you during his bloomberg speech we won't know what sort of Europe we're voting to leave or remain in.

'A vote today between the status quo and leaving would be an entirely false choice.

Now - while the EU is in flux, and when we don’t know what the future holds and what sort of EU will emerge from this crisis is not the right time to make such a momentous decision about the future of our country.

It is wrong to ask people whether to stay or go before we have had a chance to put the relationship right.

How can we sensibly answer the question ‘in or out’ without being able to answer the most basic question: ‘what is it exactly that we are choosing to be in or out of?’

The European Union that emerges from the Eurozone crisis is going to be a very different body. It will be transformed perhaps beyond recognition by the measures needed to save the Eurozone.'

The Euro zone crisis is ongoing and unresolved and according to Cameron the EU will change beyond recognition, not a very certain future if we remain in according to the figurehead of the In campaign. From an out perspective I would say that it is certain that people could understand that leaving will mean the UK parliament and courts will reacquire most if not all the powers ceded to EU institutions and courts. Plus we would regain full control of our borders.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

If we want a deal with a similar sort of access to the EU internal market that we presently enjoy, yes, free movement will be part of that package.

The Thatcher reforms were of course central, but so was the way that the EU changed the shape of the UK economy.



and



and the killer quote :
Warwick University’s Prof Crafts says no one can know exactly how much the EU directly benefited Britain, but a 10 per cent rise in prosperity is a reasonable estimate. “That dominates any reasonable idea of what the membership fee is,” he concludes. He cautions there is little evidence that joining the bloc permanently increased Britain’s growth rate, since the EU primarily boosted the economy in the 1970s and 1990s. But leaving the union could jeopardise the UK’s gains from increased openness and competition — the contributions economists overwhelmingly say the EU has made to British prosperity."

The EU helped to free up trade, and as such helped us to become the swashbuckling globally-minded trading nation we all want the UK to be.

With the last point on the Eurozone question. You're right that we're subject to the consequences in or out. But you're totally wrong to say we have no say in the matter whether we're in or out.

Essentially and fundamentally Britain can help strengthen the northern European hand and bolster the case for stronger budget rules inside the Eurozone. This would be part of our broader national interest and we have greater influence on this inside the EU. Our special status means however that we do not have to contribute to eurozone bailout funds. We get to help shape a system we want and benefit from that reform process. It's not easy but it's a proactive move we can actually take rather than stick our heads in the sand and simply ignore the problem. We can get stuck in and fight for the Europe we want or we can watch it change in ways we don't like from the outside. More control, more influence = in.


The FT is balanced and independent you just don't like its conclusions. I might take that argument on board if I was only quoting the Guardian.

We don't have any say on Free Movement, that's what's wrong. It doesn't effect your wealthy bankers, lawyers, politicians at the top, but it certainly effects people at the bottom especially where migration is concerned, it just creates more competition for Brits who really need a job. Cutting migration would not only reduce competition for jobs, it would also take the pressure off our services over the time, it would cost us less, in things like in work benefits and could possibly reduce house prices because demand wouldn't be so bad, which in turn would help young Brits on to the housing ladder. How can this not be a good thing? Where we are going when Osbourne keeps cutting at the same time as bringing more people in, it means we all suffer, not fair on those who paid in to the system years before is it.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

It is impossible for anyone to give a definitive answer about the future on either side

I'm pretty confident I can tell you exactly how the trade arrangements with the EU will pan out if the UK votes to remain.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

We don't have any say on Free Movement, that's what's wrong. It doesn't effect your wealthy bankers, lawyers, politicians at the top, but it certainly effects people at the bottom especially where migration is concerned, it just creates more competition for Brits who really need a job.

I agree. But I feel there are better and more imaginative ways of tackling low wages and UK unemployment than pulling up the draw bridge. I hear your concern but I don't want to deny hard workers the opportunity of coming to the UK. Conversely I don't want to deny Brits the opportunity to live and work freely around Europe.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

If we want a deal with a similar sort of access to the EU internal market that we presently enjoy, yes, free movement will be part of that package.

The Thatcher reforms were of course central, but so was the way that the EU changed the shape of the UK economy.

and

and the killer quote :
Warwick University’s Prof Crafts says no one can know exactly how much the EU directly benefited Britain, but a 10 per cent rise in prosperity is a reasonable estimate. “That dominates any reasonable idea of what the membership fee is,” he concludes. He cautions there is little evidence that joining the bloc permanently increased Britain’s growth rate, since the EU primarily boosted the economy in the 1970s and 1990s. But leaving the union could jeopardise the UK’s gains from increased openness and competition — the contributions economists overwhelmingly say the EU has made to British prosperity."

The EU helped to free up trade, and as such helped us to become the swashbuckling globally-minded trading nation we all want the UK to be.

With the last point on the Eurozone question. You're right that we're subject to the consequences in or out. But you're totally wrong to say we have no say in the matter whether we're in or out.

Essentially and fundamentally Britain can help strengthen the northern European hand and bolster the case for stronger budget rules inside the Eurozone. This would be part of our broader national interest and we have greater influence on this inside the EU. Our special status means however that we do not have to contribute to eurozone bailout funds. We get to help shape a system we want and benefit from that reform process. It's not easy but it's a proactive move we can actually take rather than stick our heads in the sand and simply ignore the problem. We can get stuck in and fight for the Europe we want or we can watch it change in ways we don't like from the outside. More control, more influence = in.

The FT is balanced and independent you just don't like its conclusions. I might take that argument on board if I was only quoting the Guardian.

The caveat 'similar sort of access to what we presently enjoy' still doesn't support your contention. I can safely predict that one of the few absolute certainties of a post Brexit world will be the removal of the current free access to all EU citizens living and working here. Any post Brexit governments electoral survival would depend on it. A clear red line. Most countries manage trade deals without this as would we, how 'similar' our new trade relationship would be to our current access would be a matter of negotiation.

You get 5 economists in a room you get 6 different opinions I apologise for not viewing one economic historians 'killer quote' as gospel. I'm sure there are other views available if you would care to look. Did he include the damaging economic effects of the Euro crisis?

Loving the swashbuckling hyperbole but it doesn't address the point made in the link I provided (you asked for) that our position after EU trade deals was worse if comparing it to independent nations.

Yes I'm sure your right that other EU Euro zone members fully signed up to ever closer union would take on board our view while we opted out of bail out measures and ever closer union. Look how much influence we had getting fundamental substantial concessions on pain of Brexit.

 

[Soulman]

One falsie put into touch.
" Richard Walton, Scotland Yard's former head of Counter Terrorism command, today rejects claims by the Prime Minister that Britain should stay in the EU on security grounds.

He says that reducing terror plots is "absolutely not" dependent on being a member of the European Union. "So let's not scare the horses with fears about Brexit," he says.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

One falsie put into touch.
" Richard Walton, Scotland Yard's former head of Counter Terrorism command, today rejects claims by the Prime Minister that Britain should stay in the EU on security grounds.

He says that reducing terror plots is "absolutely not" dependent on being a member of the European Union. "So let's not scare the horses with fears about Brexit," he says.

Is that the Richard Walton?

 

[Soulman]

Is that the Richard Walton?

No it is " Richard Walton, Scotland Yard's former head of Counter Terrorism", i would think that he might know a thing or two on the subject

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

No it is " Richard Walton, Scotland Yard's former head of Counter Terrorism", i would think that he might know a thing or two on the subject

I know exactly who he is. And I'm well aware of him being a former head..... as his impeccably timed retirement was plastered all over the press.

 

[pastafarian]

I agree. But I feel there are better and more imaginative ways of tackling low wages and UK unemployment than pulling up the draw bridge. I hear your concern but I don't want to deny hard workers the opportunity of coming to the UK. Conversely I don't want to deny Brits the opportunity to live and work freely around Europe.

People will still be able to go and work and live in Europe if there was a Brexit,the same as they are able to go and work and live in countries all over the world.

Would you be capable of filling out a form to apply for a work permit in Germany or would this pose such a difficulty for you that you would simply give up and return to the UK?

Your version of free movement for hard workers is also an open door endorsement of free movement for criminals.You either cant process this uncomfortable truth or even worse simply consider it a by product of free movement that you are comfortable with

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Slowing economy, lets pass the blame to Brexit, it's quite pathetic really. When they talk things up enough it actually works in their favour, they make more money, on the other hand the poor sods at the bottom of the pile suffer because of it.

Pound falls, blame Brexit again, pathetic. It was going down before that.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...-rocketing-prices-holidays-boost-exports.html

 

[5ways]

The caveat 'similar sort of access to what we presently enjoy' still doesn't support your contention. I can safely predict that one of the few absolute certainties of a post Brexit world will be the removal of the current free access to all EU citizens living and working here. Any post Brexit governments electoral survival would depend on it. A clear red line. Most countries manage trade deals without this as would we, how 'similar' our new trade relationship would be to our current access would be a matter of negotiation.

You get 5 economists in a room you get 6 different opinions I apologise for not viewing one economic historians 'killer quote' as gospel. I'm sure there are other views available if you would care to look. Did he include the damaging economic effects of the Euro crisis?

Loving the swashbuckling hyperbole but it doesn't address the point made in the link I provided (you asked for) that our position after EU trade deals was worse if comparing it to independent nations.

Yes I'm sure your right that other EU Euro zone members fully signed up to ever closer union would take on board our view while we opted out of bail out measures and ever closer union. Look how much influence we had getting fundamental substantial concessions on pain of Brexit.

On page 23 I would still have the same answer I had then. That the UK has underperformed because our economy is skewed heavily away from exports and to services. What my links above do show is that the UK benefited from the liberalisation of trade which was suffocating the economy post-war and pre-Thatcher. The shackles came off and now we're more well-off than either France or Italy. The EU helped lift a miserable and insular fog (hyperbole is fun) that had descended on the UK economy after the collapse of preferable trading relationships with former colonies.

I don't think it's fair to bat away the view of these economists. As it says this is the consensus view and one even granted by out-er economists. Besides, there can only be one pre-eminent British economic historian so that has to count for something. I guess I'm a sucker for highly respected opinions.

As ever it is the choice of having a degree of influence and having none. I want a seat at the table. And actually I think we got quite a lot from the EU deal. As said before we have so many opt-outs, the Euro, Schegen, law and justice provisions and now we get more special treatment. Benefits staggering/indexed, protection for the City, no closer union. I think our northern friends like Denmark are probably a little jealous.

Also why is free movement a red line? Migration is a big deal but I don't know if it's a total red line.

 

[Soulman]

I know exactly who he is. And I'm well aware of him being a former head..... as his impeccably timed retirement was plastered all over the press.

Why ask then

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

People will still be able to go and work and live in Europe if there was a Brexit,the same as they are able to go and work and live in countries all over the world.

But people can't just go and work and live in countries all over the world. And you know this. So why are you being obtuse?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Why ask then

It was a rhetorical question.

 

[pastafarian]

But people can't just go and work and live in countries all over the world. And you know this. So why are you being obtuse?

Of course they can with the correct paperwork,
If most of the globe can cope with this system of permits and visas to live and work im sure you wont find it too taxing to get a work permit for Germany if there is a Brexit

 

[heathgate]

My grandparents' generation fought in arguably the most pivotal war in history, paying a terrible price for victory. But why? So that we could retain the right to choose who governs us. So that power will rest with the people.

The politicians of this current generation are giving this power away, even though it's not their's to give.

If we fail to grasp the nettle in June and stop this rot, history will judge us very harshly for this missed opportunity.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Have we left yet?

 

[Ernest]

Way things are going Corbyn will be PM by Christmas