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[Politics] The state of things



Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
55,907
Faversham
I have been listening to Nicky Campbell this morning, with the phone-in on the nurses' strike. I am not sure we are close to a tipping point yet because it seems clear that most of us don't understand the big picture.

I may be wrong but it has always seemed to me that if you have a State, and charge the State with provision of key services, then this has to be paid for from tax. With, indeed, a contribution from the return on investment of some of the money raised in tax.

It seems that the people expect certain core services to be managed by the State. The police. The military. The national health system. Education. Border control. The fire sevice. Social services. (Have I missed anything?). This is essentially 'one nationism'.

Not everyone agrees with this. There has always been an element among the right that the State should not provide any service other than the military to protect us from invaders. Possibly a police service, but that could be set up as a local militia. This is a common view in America. The rest of 'services? - well if you want health or education, just earn money and pay for it. It is a viewpoint, and it is coherent.

On the other hand, there is an element on the left who consider that not only key services, but most economic activity should be state owned and regulated. 'Top' salaries should not exist and we should all earn a 'living wage'. No profiteering, and a regulated economy. To keep all this together, tax should be high.

Here is the rub. What happens, here, now is somewhere in between. There is a large proportion of the electorate who consider that low tax, and systems that facilitate individual men and women accumulating wealth, should be the national priority. There is another large proportion, with considerable overlap between the two populations ironically, that expect a decent health service, short waiting lists, and excellent reliable public transport.

Neither labour nor conservative have hugely wavered from a policy of attempting to keep tax low while keeping essential services running, since the war (WWII). Neither party has said either "we MUST tax people more to keep the ship afloat" or "we must privatize everything to keep tax low". Some goverments have got close, but these goals have never been explicit or the main policy.

So we have a mess. This has managed to rumble on with 'one nationism' practiced by both parties, but Thatcher ended all that. Thatcher did not change society, but she changed the direction of travel. This was not reversed by Blair (I was hoping it would be, but instead he embraced public/private ownership - a horrible hybrid).

Now, the hard right among the tories have seized a series opportunity offered first by 'The crash', then Covid and Putin, to bring in austerity. What is this supposed to achieve? Shrinkage of the state, a shift in power from state owned enterprises to private. It has been a continuous sequence that involves underfunding state owned enterprises so people criticise them. So what is the end game? It has to be no state ownership and low taxes. But....we have not been told this, have we.

Listening to the 'national conversation' the sense seems to be that the NHS is ruined. And yet the nation is not screaming at the government, demanding money be made available (by increasing tax) to fix it. The understaffing is barely mentioned 'at large', and has been absorbed into the general 'woe is the NHS' narrative. Why is nobody demanding that we swap some Albanians with some Rwandan nurses (fair exchange is no robbery etc). I am being facetious of course. My point is that no solutions are being offered. Think of that!

There is one, of course. Put up tax, pump money into the NHS, and make it much easier for the stream of overseas nurses that used to supplement the workforce to settle in the UK.

Oh, but that means higher taxes and more foreigners.

We have not reached tipping point yet, but it may be just over the horizon. Perhaps if Labour grasp the nettle and offer a clear alternative, a brave one (it will require higher taxes, and also some 'redistribution' of wealth, windfall taxes etc.) there may be some hope. Labour are nailed on to form the next government so I can understand that, if they have a clear plan, they are keeping their powder dry. Any detailed policy announcement will be mocked and ridiculed by those willing to rush to the bottom and pedal any lie to keep the Tories in power. So I don't expect Starmer to reveal any detail till after he's in number ten. Risky.

But if there is a plan, a radical left plan, I shall rejoice. Because we cannot carry on like this, with the impossible fudge where tax is kept low and our institutions collapse. That is a hard right agenda, and one that has astonishingly been accepted as the only way of doing things. That (not cheese imports) is a disgrace.
 






Titanic

Super Moderator
Helpful Moderator
Jul 5, 2003
39,900
West Sussex
Screen Shot 12-15-22 at 10.26 AM.JPG


In what world is 'tax being kept low'?
 


Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,225
Back in Sussex
View attachment 154727

In what world is 'tax being kept low'?

If my calorie intake yesterday was 10 calories, but my calorie intake today was 20 calories, you could say that today's calorie intake was high as it was double yesterday's.

However, relative to other people, and what a human body needs, 20 calories is not a high intake at all.

So, to assess whether our tax burden is low, high, or somewhere in between, we can't compare the UK year-on-year, we need to compare the UK to other countries...

Screenshot 2022-12-15 at 10.33.08.png

Source: https://www.oecd.org/tax/revenue-statistics-united-kingdom.pdf
 


pb21

Well-known member
Apr 23, 2010
6,681
Well, its lower than 800 billion, or ~15% GDP.

Depends on what you define as low, for you its too high, for someone else its too low. :shrug:
 




Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,225
Back in Sussex
Quick follow-up: I'm not saying our taxation levels are too low - that sort of stuff is far above my pay grade.

However, our taxation levels are low, relative to many other countries, including the Scandinavian block which seems to generally get a good press for doing things right.
 




Titanic

Super Moderator
Helpful Moderator
Jul 5, 2003
39,900
West Sussex
I was more interested in the 'being kept low'... which doesn't seem to be the case. it looks more like a steady rising trend to me.
 




Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,225
Back in Sussex
I was more interested in the 'being kept low'... which doesn't seem to be the case. it looks more like a steady rising trend to me.
Something can be...

- steadily rising, and
- low

...at the same time. They are not mutually exclusive.

I eat 10 calories today, 11 tomorrow, 12 the next day and 13 the day after that. Steadily increasing, but still absolutely low.

(Note: I'm not arguing with you. Again, I have no idea if our tax levels are too low or not. I'm just trying to illustrate that things can be rising yet still low.)
 


1066familyman

Radio User
Jan 15, 2008
15,233
I have been listening to Nicky Campbell this morning, with the phone-in on the nurses' strike. I am not sure we are close to a tipping point yet because it seems clear that most of us don't understand the big picture.

I may be wrong but it has always seemed to me that if you have a State, and charge the State with provision of key services, then this has to be paid for from tax. With, indeed, a contribution from the return on investment of some of the money raised in tax.

It seems that the people expect certain core services to be managed by the State. The police. The military. The national health system. Education. Border control. The fire sevice. Social services. (Have I missed anything?). This is essentially 'one nationism'.

Not everyone agrees with this. There has always been an element among the right that the State should not provide any service other than the military to protect us from invaders. Possibly a police service, but that could be set up as a local militia. This is a common view in America. The rest of 'services? - well if you want health or education, just earn money and pay for it. It is a viewpoint, and it is coherent.

On the other hand, there is an element on the left who consider that not only key services, but most economic activity should be state owned and regulated. 'Top' salaries should not exist and we should all earn a 'living wage'. No profiteering, and a regulated economy. To keep all this together, tax should be high.

Here is the rub. What happens, here, now is somewhere in between. There is a large proportion of the electorate who consider that low tax, and systems that facilitate individual men and women accumulating wealth, should be the national priority. There is another large proportion, with considerable overlap between the two populations ironically, that expect a decent health service, short waiting lists, and excellent reliable public transport.

Neither labour nor conservative have hugely wavered from a policy of attempting to keep tax low while keeping essential services running, since the war (WWII). Neither party has said either "we MUST tax people more to keep the ship afloat" or "we must privatize everything to keep tax low". Some goverments have got close, but these goals have never been explicit or the main policy.

So we have a mess. This has managed to rumble on with 'one nationism' practiced by both parties, but Thatcher ended all that. Thatcher did not change society, but she changed the direction of travel. This was not reversed by Blair (I was hoping it would be, but instead he embraced public/private ownership - a horrible hybrid).

Now, the hard right among the tories have seized a series opportunity offered first by 'The crash', then Covid and Putin, to bring in austerity. What is this supposed to achieve? Shrinkage of the state, a shift in power from state owned enterprises to private. It has been a continuous sequence that involves underfunding state owned enterprises so people criticise them. So what is the end game? It has to be no state ownership and low taxes. But....we have not been told this, have we.

Listening to the 'national conversation' the sense seems to be that the NHS is ruined. And yet the nation is not screaming at the government, demanding money be made available (by increasing tax) to fix it. The understaffing is barely mentioned 'at large', and has been absorbed into the general 'woe is the NHS' narrative. Why is nobody demanding that we swap some Albanians with some Rwandan nurses (fair exchange is no robbery etc). I am being facetious of course. My point is that no solutions are being offered. Think of that!

There is one, of course. Put up tax, pump money into the NHS, and make it much easier for the stream of overseas nurses that used to supplement the workforce to settle in the UK.

Oh, but that means higher taxes and more foreigners.

We have not reached tipping point yet, but it may be just over the horizon. Perhaps if Labour grasp the nettle and offer a clear alternative, a brave one (it will require higher taxes, and also some 'redistribution' of wealth, windfall taxes etc.) there may be some hope. Labour are nailed on to form the next government so I can understand that, if they have a clear plan, they are keeping their powder dry. Any detailed policy announcement will be mocked and ridiculed by those willing to rush to the bottom and pedal any lie to keep the Tories in power. So I don't expect Starmer to reveal any detail till after he's in number ten. Risky.

But if there is a plan, a radical left plan, I shall rejoice. Because we cannot carry on like this, with the impossible fudge where tax is kept low and our institutions collapse. That is a hard right agenda, and one that has astonishingly been accepted as the only way of doing things. That (not cheese imports) is a disgrace.
And yet you continuously railed against Corbyn. Weird.

He was our only hope and the only opportunity we've had for radical change in donkeys. We've missed that opportunity unfortunately.
 


Insel affe

HellBilly
Feb 23, 2009
24,307
Brighton factually.....
I have been listening to Nicky Campbell this morning, with the phone-in on the nurses' strike. I am not sure we are close to a tipping point yet because it seems clear that most of us don't understand the big picture.

I may be wrong but it has always seemed to me that if you have a State, and charge the State with provision of key services, then this has to be paid for from tax. With, indeed, a contribution from the return on investment of some of the money raised in tax.

It seems that the people expect certain core services to be managed by the State. The police. The military. The national health system. Education. Border control. The fire sevice. Social services. (Have I missed anything?). This is essentially 'one nationism'.

Not everyone agrees with this. There has always been an element among the right that the State should not provide any service other than the military to protect us from invaders. Possibly a police service, but that could be set up as a local militia. This is a common view in America. The rest of 'services? - well if you want health or education, just earn money and pay for it. It is a viewpoint, and it is coherent.

On the other hand, there is an element on the left who consider that not only key services, but most economic activity should be state owned and regulated. 'Top' salaries should not exist and we should all earn a 'living wage'. No profiteering, and a regulated economy. To keep all this together, tax should be high.

Here is the rub. What happens, here, now is somewhere in between. There is a large proportion of the electorate who consider that low tax, and systems that facilitate individual men and women accumulating wealth, should be the national priority. There is another large proportion, with considerable overlap between the two populations ironically, that expect a decent health service, short waiting lists, and excellent reliable public transport.

Neither labour nor conservative have hugely wavered from a policy of attempting to keep tax low while keeping essential services running, since the war (WWII). Neither party has said either "we MUST tax people more to keep the ship afloat" or "we must privatize everything to keep tax low". Some goverments have got close, but these goals have never been explicit or the main policy.

So we have a mess. This has managed to rumble on with 'one nationism' practiced by both parties, but Thatcher ended all that. Thatcher did not change society, but she changed the direction of travel. This was not reversed by Blair (I was hoping it would be, but instead he embraced public/private ownership - a horrible hybrid).

Now, the hard right among the tories have seized a series opportunity offered first by 'The crash', then Covid and Putin, to bring in austerity. What is this supposed to achieve? Shrinkage of the state, a shift in power from state owned enterprises to private. It has been a continuous sequence that involves underfunding state owned enterprises so people criticise them. So what is the end game? It has to be no state ownership and low taxes. But....we have not been told this, have we.

Listening to the 'national conversation' the sense seems to be that the NHS is ruined. And yet the nation is not screaming at the government, demanding money be made available (by increasing tax) to fix it. The understaffing is barely mentioned 'at large', and has been absorbed into the general 'woe is the NHS' narrative. Why is nobody demanding that we swap some Albanians with some Rwandan nurses (fair exchange is no robbery etc). I am being facetious of course. My point is that no solutions are being offered. Think of that!

There is one, of course. Put up tax, pump money into the NHS, and make it much easier for the stream of overseas nurses that used to supplement the workforce to settle in the UK.

Oh, but that means higher taxes and more foreigners.

We have not reached tipping point yet, but it may be just over the horizon. Perhaps if Labour grasp the nettle and offer a clear alternative, a brave one (it will require higher taxes, and also some 'redistribution' of wealth, windfall taxes etc.) there may be some hope. Labour are nailed on to form the next government so I can understand that, if they have a clear plan, they are keeping their powder dry. Any detailed policy announcement will be mocked and ridiculed by those willing to rush to the bottom and pedal any lie to keep the Tories in power. So I don't expect Starmer to reveal any detail till after he's in number ten. Risky.

But if there is a plan, a radical left plan, I shall rejoice. Because we cannot carry on like this, with the impossible fudge where tax is kept low and our institutions collapse. That is a hard right agenda, and one that has astonishingly been accepted as the only way of doing things. That (not cheese imports) is a disgrace.
Oh Harry....

I have not got a clue what you are on about, and frankly do not care.
I pay what I am asked and except what I am given, this is probably wrong.
But my tiny mind is happy with that, I have too many issues personally and privately to deal with too start worrying if I am screwed over by whichever government is in charge, I just accept it.
Totally wrong really, but I simply have not got the mental capacity to say what is right or wrong concerning fiscal policies.

I just want to be happy with my family, watch football, listen to music and stay relatively healthy and that includes mental health, which is delicate at the best of times, worrying about the above would make my mind explode
 






Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,225
Back in Sussex
My gut feel is that most people are broadly supportive of things like "pay more tax to improve the NHS and provide better schools etc" until it actually comes to the bit where they are asked to pay more tax. At that point, tax isn't anyone's friend, and no-one wants to hang out with it.
 


beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,994
a while back i accepted there needs to be more taxes if we are to maintain or have more services. i was surprised when a Tory government introduced tax rises they had often opposed. imagine the confusion when Labour rejected this. then further confusion as they complained we had the highest ever taxes (true), made up of rises to NI corporation tax and fiscal drag on higher rate earners.

Labour wont make a clear case for broad tax rises. they are so scared of reaction to that they wont, they will instead rely on minor taxes around the margins, leaving them wide open unfunded spending promises.
 




Seagull27

Well-known member
Feb 7, 2011
3,368
Bristol
View attachment 154727

In what world is 'tax being kept low'?
This is a typical trick of politicians - quote figures in absolute numbers, rather than relative - "we're spending more on the NHS than any government in history" - you'd bloody well hope that's true for every government.

These graphs demonstrate why yours is meaningless, other than to show that things raise in value over time:
1000003577.png

1000003576.png
 


1066familyman

Radio User
Jan 15, 2008
15,233
I suppose what we could do as a nation is say... 'ah f*** it, give the cat another goldfish'. All whilst listening to yet more driving home for fcvking Christmas!

Still, that same approach has worked well for Climate change so far. So as you were then.
 


Titanic

Super Moderator
Helpful Moderator
Jul 5, 2003
39,900
West Sussex
Tax as a share of nominal GDP in the UK... after the latest Tory budget...

Screen Shot 12-15-22 at 11.02 AM.JPG


Yes, it may well be low compared to others, but it is rising, and on current budget will continue to do so in the near future.
 






Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,225
Back in Sussex
Tax as a share of nominal GDP in the UK... after the latest Tory budget...

View attachment 154735

Yes, it may well be low compared to others, but it is rising, and on current budget will continue to do so in the near future.
Can I gently remind you that your entry to this thread wasn't whether it was rising or not, it was whether it's low or not!

Great swerve though - are you a professional politician?

I also wouldn't take any current budget forecasts with anything other than a very large pinch of salt, certainly when projected beyond the next General Election. We'll almost certainly have a new government and they won't look to retain the status quo.
 


Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
George Osborne introduced austerity in 2010 as the answer to the banking crash. It reduced public services in every area. In the meantime, the head of Persimmon received £75M bonus. Bonus, not a wage.

 


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