[Politics] The Labour Government

[Bold Seagull]

Presumably, if you wanted to illustrate something like "how did the markets react to the budget?" you'd want a tight timeframe that covered just before and just after the budget announcement.

Ot, I guess we could just link to an article to show the same thing...

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/sterling-ticks-higher-investors-expect-fewer-boe-rate-cuts-2024-10-31/

"The pound fell on Thursday, set for its worst two-day loss against the euro in two years, a day after new British finance minister Rachel Reeves announced a tax-and-spend budget that investors worried would reignite inflation and weigh on growth.

Sterling was heading for a two-day loss of 0.7% against the euro , the largest since September 2022, when then-Prime Minister Liz Truss unleashed turmoil on UK financial markets with budget plans for billions of pounds in unfunded tax cuts."

First thing I looked at was context, first to a o month, then 6m then a year then 3 years. The pound is actually on a high, so that loss although large is only a return to prices of a month or so ago.

 

[pb21]

Presumably, if you wanted to illustrate something like "how did the markets react to the budget?" you'd want a tight timeframe that covered just before and just after the budget announcement.

Yesterday, after the budget, the £ recated postively agaisnt the $.

Today's selloff was when US data was published this PM UK time.

But UK borrowing did jump yesterday, now decreasing...

 

[Flounce]

Stock Exchange heading for a three month low

 

[beorhthelm]

Stock Exchange heading for a three month low

as last two days drops are less than Dax, Nasdaq or S&P, nowt to do with budget.
UK gilts are up against other bonds, so the market isnt so happy about the borrowing on the horizon.

 

[Jim in the West]

OMG - the FTSE has fallen 0.6%. And bond yields up by 0.09%. Catastrophe ahead !!

 

[Bozza]

Yesterday, after the budget, the £ recated postively agaisnt the $.
View attachment 191567

Today's selloff was when US data was published this PM UK time.
View attachment 191568

But UK borrowing did jump yesterday, now decreasing...
View attachment 191566

I was merely chipping in as to why someone may present a chart over a narrow and recent timeframe.

Scanning the articles returned from the News tab on Google from a search "financial markets uk budget" now suggests a broadly negative response from the markets, now they've had time to digest yesterday's budget. From what I can gather there are concerns over high inflation, higher interest rates and lower growth.

But, covering off the "yeah, but what about Tories" crew - the reaction is clearly not a patch on what followed Truss's infamous pièce de résistance.

Also, of course, Reeves knew what she was implementing, so the reaction won't be unexpected to her. And, most importantly, this is a long-term game to rebuild the UK economy. Short-term market reactions won't be a distraction from that.

 

[Bozza]

OMG - the FTSE has fallen 0.6%. And bond yields up by 0.09%. Catastrophe ahead !!

I'm not sure anyone anywhere is predicting an imminent catastrophe - fortunately Liz Truss is nowhere near the tiller of the UK economy - but yields on UK bonds has risen and more so than other nations.

Anyway, it's better coming from people who know what they're talking about, rather than me.

 

[Bozza]

Rachel? Are you OK Rachel?

 

[pb21]

Surprised Reeves is surprised there is a bit of an increase, seems like it would/should have been expected?

Definitely something to be aware of though, as far from ideal, but how much of this focus is a result of Gilt market PTSD following Truss' bull in a china shop budget?

 

[jcdenton08]

Markets will stabilise once they see the world hasn’t ended. the FT predicted this ages ago for a first Labour budget regardless of what was in it

 

[Bold Seagull]

Markets will stabilise once they see the world hasn’t ended. the FT predicted this ages ago for a first Labour budget regardless of what was in it

Absolutely. For a while even LinkedIn turned a bit X this morning. Not had to unconnect with people on that platform before.

 

[beorhthelm]

Surprised Reeves is surprised there is a bit of an increase, seems like it would/should have been expected?

Definitely something to be aware of though, as far from ideal, but how much of this focus is a result of Gilt market PTSD following Truss' bull in a china shop budget?

it is PTSD from the mortage rate rises, which people keep linking that budget and gilt market reaction, rather BoE reaction to inflation.

 

[Bozza]

Martin Lewis absolutely dismantling Reeves' justification for the WFA scandal on ITV right now.

One of the biggest tax rises in UK history, and absolutely nothing is being done about a group of poor and highly vulnerable people that the government know are going to suffer badly.

Utterly shameful.

Prediction: @Bold Seagull won't like this post.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Martin Lewis absolutely dismantling Reeves' justification for the WFA scandal on ITV right now.

One of the biggest tax rises in UK history, and absolutely nothing is being done about a group of poor and highly vulnerable people that the government know are going to suffer badly.

Utterly shameful.

Prediction: @Bold Seagull won't like this post.

You’ve jumped from Sky News to ITV - there are no bounds to your openmindness.

 

[Weststander]

Martin Lewis absolutely dismantling Reeves' justification for the WFA scandal on ITV right now.

One of the biggest tax rises in UK history, and absolutely nothing is being done about a group of poor and highly vulnerable people that the government know are going to suffer badly.

Utterly shameful.

Prediction: @Bold Seagull won't like this post.

Telling it straight. Worried about the 880,000 and 1,500,000 who absolutely will suffer.

Then people have to hate ML because he doesn’t accord with their move along, nothing to see here views. He also faces this about student loans (a Tory and Labour creation). Online hate when he advises school leavers to think of it as a graduate tax rather than debt, partly so as not to be dissuaded from going to uni.

 

[zefarelly]

Martin Lewis absolutely dismantling Reeves' justification for the WFA scandal on ITV right now.

One of the biggest tax rises in UK history, and absolutely nothing is being done about a group of poor and highly vulnerable people that the government know are going to suffer badly.

Utterly shameful.

Prediction: @Bold Seagull won't like this post.

What a load of bollocks. ML is a twat in spades on a good day.

 

[Weststander]

What a load of bollocks. ML is a twat in spades on a good day.

What’s his crime here, championing just got poorer poor pensioners?

Why would younger people who don’t feel the cold hate that message?

 

[Bozza]

You’ve jumped from Sky News to ITV - there are no bounds to your openmindness.

I've been out for much of the day.

I don't have Sky TV - I merely embedded a couple of tweets I found when scanning down my list of news commentators I have.

I wouldn't choose to watch ITV, right now, but I'm sitting next to my mum and I won't win the battle for the control. It's also like a sauna in here, but she's one of the lucky ones.

 

[Bold Seagull]

What’s his crime here, championing just got poorer poor pensioners?

Why would younger people who don’t feel the cold hate that message?

I won’t hear a bad thing said about Martin, he’s one of Mrs Bold’s favourites!

 

[Bozza]

What a load of bollocks. ML is a twat in spades on a good day.

He's a loud shouty sort, certainly. Not sure I'd want to go to the pub with him.

But his crusade for the vulnerable pensioners that are being left to freeze this winter is admirable.