The importance of goal difference

[Simster]

It was starting to look like we could achieve what looked impossible a week ago and put the goal difference factor in our favour.

Burnley were still one down and we were pushing for a fifth.

It feels as though it could be tricky to get in front of Burnley's GD now, but Boro are there for the taking, given the double significance of any goals we put past them.

Very true.

Although the only way GD is going to matter now in a head to head with Middlesbrough is if we win against Charlton, and lose to Derby and Boro win and draw their games against Ipswich and Birmingham. That would leave them 3 points above us, with a goal difference in all likelihood of 2 or 3 better than ours.

 

[Sheebo]

I don't see the equaliser as a hammer blow at all. It means there are 2 teams very near us rather than one. Someone will drop points in the last 3 (not including our Boro game) I'm sure. Could be us at Charlton or very very possibly v Derby - who knows. Like Hughton said, we don't know re last nights results. At least 1 point went up in smoke eh...

 

[Greg Bobkin]

I still fancy Bobby to return from injury on the bench v Boro for his farewell appearance, and pop up with a late winner to clinch promotion.
It's what he does, it's written in the stars !

Calde (recalled for a last hurrah before he takes his position on the coaching staff) to Bobby, who slots home the winner in the last minute of injury time to clinch promotion and the championships.

That really WOULD be 'the stuff of dreams'

 

[Triggaaar]

Like everyone else I spent the night thinking of permutations and how it might work out.

Burnley's Keane scoring in injury time from a corner was a hammer blow to us, we really could have done without him repeating the trick. It now means that even if Burnley are held at Preston, we probably won't really benefit because whether they win or draw, we have to win all three remaining games to be promoted. It is also the case that we can't be expected to finish with a better goal difference than them given the remaining fixtures, so they only need to match our results to finish above us.

So is goal difference important any more? Well yes it is actually. Boro are also just four goals clear of us, but if we can put a cricket score past Charlton and beat Derby (ideally by more than one) and Middlesbrough drop points, then we could feasibily go to the Riverside ahead of them needing just a draw for promotion.

Plagiarism.

My GD comments apply to us finishing above Burnley on GD, which I don't think is realistic.

However, we could beat Middlesbrough on GD (who'd have thought that a couple of months ago). If they win a game by 1 goal, and draw a game, while we win our next two by a total of 5, we'll go above them on GD. A draw in the last game would be enough.

 

[Triggaaar]

This might be a strange thing to say but I would rather go to Middlesbrough needing a win than a draw to go up. That's because I think this group of players, seem to play better when they need to go chasing a positive result rather that settling for the status quo

I totally understand what you're saying, but you can't be right. Not unless Chris and the team are idiots. Surely they also know that we're doing better when chasing a positive result, so they should chase it even if we only need a draw. Also, if we need a win we could go a goal up and revert to the negative style of play you're concerned about.

 

[Gregory2Smith1]

quite like this scenario

we win our next 2 games

Boro win & draw

Burnley beat QPR,but lose at Preston

then Brighton & Boro play out a draw (saints-spurs,we're owed) Boro win the league and we go up with them!

 

[Simster]

quite like this scenario

we win our next 2 games

Boro win & draw

Burnley beat QPR,but lose at Preston

then Brighton & Boro play out a draw (saints-spurs,we're owed) Boro win the league and we go up with them!

I like that too. Although if I'm being greedy, can you fix it so that we beat Charlton 6-0 so that we're the ones with the title, not Boro?

 

[Triggaaar]

also remember if we beat Boro the GD swings massively. A 2-0 win means a 4 goal GD swing in our favour!!

For us to beat Middlesbrough on GD, having won at their place, we need to lose one of our next two games, while they need to draw one of theirs. That will put the GD at a minimum of 5, ignoring the other game we play. It's not the most likely route to promotion.

 

[Triggaaar]

Although the only way GD is going to matter now in a head to head with Middlesbrough is if we win against Charlton, and lose to Derby and Boro win and draw their games against Ipswich and Birmingham. That would leave them 3 points above us, with a goal difference in all likelihood of 2 or 3 better than ours.

Their GD is 4 better than ours, and you have us losing a game, so it would only be down to 2 or 3 if 'brough win by a single goal and we beat Charlton by 3 or 4. Possible, but maybe not the most likely outcome.

Our last two results may have left some supporters thinking this winning lark is easy.

 

[JonnyComeEarly]

For us to beat Middlesbrough on GD, having won at their place, we need to lose one of our next two games, while they need to draw one of theirs. That will put the GD at a minimum of 5, ignoring the other game we play. It's not the most likely route to promotion.

It is quite likely we may lose to Derby. And they may well draw away to Brum....

It is also not completely out of the realms of reality that we could end up stuffing Boro 0-3 at their place, as they did to us..... job done, championeeeees!

 

[DFL JCL]

Going into yesterday's game i was convinced that a Boro win was the best possible outcome. Having looked at the remaining fixtures i think Boro are more likely to slip up. I am now of the opinion that 1-1 was a great result as Boro are still there for the taking, from both a points and goal difference perspective. I still can't see us failing to win automatic promotion with less than 7 in the loss column of the table.

 

[MattBackHome]

What happens if two teams finish with the same points and goal difference?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Ip Dip Dog Shit.

 

[Triggaaar]

It is quite likely we may lose to Derby. And they may well draw away to Brum....

It is also not completely out of the realms of reality that we could end up stuffing Boro 0-3 at their place, as they did to us..... job done, championeeeees!

That wouldn't put us above Burnley.

 

[Triggaaar]

Going into yesterday's game i was convinced that a Boro win was the best possible outcome. Having looked at the remaining fixtures i think Boro are more likely to slip up. I am now of the opinion that 1-1 was a great result as Boro are still there for the taking, from both a points and goal difference perspective. I still can't see us failing to win automatic promotion with less than 7 in the loss column of the table.

You're a glass half full kinda guy aren't you?

 

[JonnyComeEarly]

That wouldn't put us above Burnley.

ok, to be honest I would be equally as happy to finish 2nd.....

 

[NooBHA]

I totally understand what you're saying, but you can't be right. Not unless Chris and the team are idiots. Surely they also know that we're doing better when chasing a positive result, so they should chase it even if we only need a draw. Also, if we need a win we could go a goal up and revert to the negative style of play you're concerned about.

Your synopsis is correct that it is is better to need a point than a win.

However

They wouldn't go chasing a result if a draw would suffice. I have been watching Chris' teams since he was reserve team coach at Spurs way back in 1995 or 1996, its not his style. He comes from an era where he played a lot of Euafa Cup matches back in the days where you played for the draw away from home and then hoped to beat them at home. He knows how to win but he also knows how to contain. ............Why would they leave themselves open unnecessarily at the back. Look what they did up at Hull. At that stage in the season they knew that it was more important not to lose. They couldn't give a shit whether they played better or not. They knew that not losing was more important than playing well.

If they played like that in last game and lost a goal in the last 15 minutes or something, it can be difficult to change the momentum on the pitch. Also, if substitutions had been made to contain then it could be too late to alter the personnel on the pitch to go chasing the game again.

 

[Triggaaar]

They wouldn't go chasing a result if a draw would suffice. I have been watching Chris' teams since he was reserve team coach at Spurs way back in 1995 or 1996, its not his style. He comes from an era where he played a lot of Euafa Cup matches back in the days where you played for the draw away from home and then hoped to beat them at home. He knows how to win but he also knows how to contain. ............Why would they leave themselves open unnecessarily at the back. Look what they did up at Hull. At that stage in the season they knew that it was more important not to lose. They couldn't give a shit whether they played better or not. They knew that not losing was more important than playing well.

If they played like that in last game and lost a goal in the last 15 minutes or something, it can be difficult to change the momentum on the pitch. Also, if substitutions had been made to contain then it could be too late to alter the personnel on the pitch to go chasing the game again.

So Chris is stupid then?

Even with his years of experience, Chris should still be learning his craft. He should also know (as you've said) that trying to hang on to a draw could easily bite us in the backside when we can't then change things if we go behind.

Re "Why would they leave themselves open unnecessarily at the back" - firstly, we can be attacking without being gung ho. Secondly, it wouldn't be unnecessary, it would give us the chance to score, thus improving our chances of promotion. It also makes it difficult for the other team to keep attacking if you put them on the back foot.

Win at home and draw away is fine over the course of a season, but it's not relevant when there's only one game left. And it's not how we played at Birmingham or Forest, because we knew it was getting a bit late for draws.

And as I said, even if you were right, if we need a win a go 1 up, Chris could then revert to the defensive style you're afraid of.

 

[Official Old Man]

I hate facts & figures but...
Last 15 seasons only 5 clubs have gone up on 90 points or more in second position.
Highest third place points tally is 87.
This year a team on 90 could end up in third.

 

[Simster]

I hate facts & figures but...
Last 15 seasons only 5 clubs have gone up on 90 points or more in second position.
Highest third place points tally is 87.
This year a team on 90 could end up in third.

This year a team on 92 could end up in third! Two points a game and not top two - madness.

 

[Mo Gosfield]

It was starting to look like we could achieve what looked impossible a week ago and put the goal difference factor in our favour.

Burnley were still one down and we were pushing for a fifth.

It feels as though it could be tricky to get in front of Burnley's GD now, but Boro are there for the taking, given the double significance of any goals we put past them.

Whatever ground we may make up on Burnley on GD, after Charlton, will be negated when they play QPR and Charlton. Expect them to get at least + 4 more out of these two. Likewise, I expect Boro to beat both Ipswich and Birmingham and push their goal difference out of reach.