[Politics] The French election

[Was not Was]

He's probably playing a long game. He stays as president and can control their excesses, whilst they might get exposed as incompetent for governing. Then when it comes to the presidential electron the country may not be so willing to give the keys to Le Pen.

Split governments used to be the norm in France but this century the presidential and parliamentary elections have been at almost the same time, meaning one party tends to sweep the board. If Macron had limped on for two years he probably would have been at the wrong end of a Conservative style wipeout. Holding the Assembly election now breaks the electoral link between the two, allowing the possibility of the President and PM being of different parties. It would prevent LePen from holding absolute power.

Thank you for the explainer. The French system is so different from ours and I had been wondering about the rationale and precedents for what Macron has done (and I used to live in France!)

 

[Zeberdi]

Thank you for the explainer. The French system is so different from ours and I had been wondering about the rationale and precedents for what Macron has done (and I used to live in France!)

As KG says, hoping to stave off a wave of populist right wing voters taking over the French Assembly and the Presidency at the same time.

The Belgium leader has also called a snap election.

Marie Le Pen’s daughter is challenging the French Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal for his job.

Unfortunately too, there’s a Russian influence and interest. The far right are very much pro-closer ties with Russia at the expense of Ukraine. It is not just the fear of a Trump presidency that pro-Ukranian supporters feel but a Europe falling into the hands of the far right.

If Macron/Attal loses control of the National Assembly (and subsequently his Presidency) , support for Ukraine could dwindle and NATO’s resolve to stop Putin’s threat to the rest of Eastern Europe could be drastically weakened.


It is no wonder Putin will be keeping a beady eye on the French election - the sick fcuk

EU elections latest: Kremlin weighs in on shock French election; Macron rejects PM's resignation offer

In a huge political gamble, Emmanuel Macron has called a surprise snap election for the French parliament after being rattled by disastrous EU election results in which far-right parties made gains in France, Italy and Germany.

news.sky.com

 

[Weststander]

I know it’s rhetorical but primarily a combination of two reasons

1. The 1926 Great Depression which left millions in poverty and economies in an economic crisis
2. Deep rooted Anti-semitism in the national psyche wasn’t confined to Germany

The popularity of the Nazis therefore arose out of an accurate reading of the public mood - and the “cult” personality of their leader.

As said above, racist, discriminating politics gain traction at a times of popular hardships and perceptions of available recourses. Those who are ‘alien’, ‘different’, or ‘minority’ are always scapegoated as being both the problem and the “solution”..

Even then very much a minority in 1933. But an elderly Hindenburg and a fear of Bolshevik style Communism, handed them real power.

 

[jcdenton08]

My view is that when people get ignored by the government - or feel they are being ignored about their concerns - they get more vocal, more angry and more likely to pick an extreme option.

Sorry to invoke Godwin’s Law here, but it is how the Nazis rose to power. It is how UKIP gained influence. It is now happening again in mainland Europe.

Immigration is the hot button topic. A very easy one to abuse, but a very difficult one to have nuanced debate about without attracting the lunatic fringes from both the racists and the social justice warriors.

Some towns here get a very shit deal with immigration. Entire communities change dynamic, crime rates increase and property prices lower. There are numerous documented cases of this happening in small towns across the nation. It is no coincidence that UKIP and now Reform are popular in these constituencies.

This lurch to the right comes when communities with legitimate concerns about immigration are dismissed out of hand as “racists” or some easy label to dismiss their unhappiness out of hand, without actually listening and making changes where possible to address what they are saying.

Gordon Brown calling the woman shouting about immigration an “ignorant woman” on a hot mic is pretty much the standard position. If you complain about immigration, you’re ignorant and/or a racist. This is why the Tories are coming up with these mental plans like Rwanda to try and appease some voters, but failing miserably because they contributed hugely to the crisis in the first place.

 

[nicko31]

Big gamble for Macron, hope the French look at our disasterous experiment with populism and think very carefully.

That said, at least he's not gambling 4 decades of membership to the world's most successful trading block which is what Cameron did and lost

 

[chip]

Big gamble for Macron, hope the French look at our disasterous experiment with populism and think very carefully.

That said, at least he's not gambling 4 decades of membership to the world's most successful trading block which is what Cameron did and lost

I get what you are saying, but that simply isn't true (unless you know of some special metric)

 

[Weststander]

My view is that when people get ignored by the government - or feel they are being ignored about their concerns - they get more vocal, more angry and more likely to pick an extreme option.

Sorry to invoke Godwin’s Law here, but it is how the Nazis rose to power. It is how UKIP gained influence. It is now happening again in mainland Europe.

Immigration is the hot button topic. A very easy one to abuse, but a very difficult one to have nuanced debate about without attracting the lunatic fringes from both the racists and the social justice warriors.

Some towns here get a very shit deal with immigration. Entire communities change dynamic, crime rates increase and property prices lower. There are numerous documented cases of this happening in small towns across the nation. It is no coincidence that UKIP and now Reform are popular in these constituencies.

This lurch to the right comes when communities with legitimate concerns about immigration are dismissed out of hand as “racists” or some easy label to dismiss their unhappiness out of hand, without actually listening and making changes where possible to address what they are saying.

Gordon Brown calling the woman shouting about immigration an “ignorant woman” on a hot mic is pretty much the standard position. If you complain about immigration, you’re ignorant and/or a racist. This is why the Tories are coming up with these mental plans like Rwanda to try and appease some voters, but failing miserably because they contributed hugely to the crisis in the first place.

In addition. Where towns and small cities saw traditional industries/employers closed one by one, it changed the very fabric of life. The France, Italy and also the eastern states of Germany have very much seen this happen. Leaving dying towns that had a heart, new gen's are compelled to move to the big cities. From globalisation, no preparedness by governments and no empathy from ruling elites living in capital cities.

 

[BN41Albion]

We’ve friends who after years in Brighton moved back to a small Swedish city. In school there, their 9 year old daughter was surprised and sad to hear that the rest of her cohort loathed black and middle eastern kids.

Intrigued to know whether you know if/how the teachers dealt with the racism? I mean they can't have been oblivious to it if their 9 year old daughter picked up on it. Pretty depressing if they turned a blind eye to it in a country that is so perceived as the pinnacle of liberal thinking and fair-mindedness. Either way, another example that Britain perhaps isn't as bad-a place to be as some folk make out

 

[Weststander]

Intrigued to know whether you know if/how the teachers dealt with the racism? I mean they can't have been oblivious to it if their 9 year old daughter picked up on it. Pretty depressing if they turned a blind eye to it in a country that is so perceived as the pinnacle of liberal thinking and fair-mindedness. Either way, another example that Britain perhaps isn't as bad-a place to be as some folk make out

Brighton/Hove would definitely be a tolerant place imho. Our Swedish friends, their kids had only ever known it here.

Sweden - at that time, early 2010’s, the first mass wave of Middle East/Afghanistan/Saharan immigrants were being welcomed by the long ruling Swedish government. Who were then sent on to towns and small cities throughout Sweden. We were told of a resentment that Stockholm had virtue signalled or done the virtuous act, but then washed their city of the ensuing issues.

 

[Zeberdi]

Kylian Mbappe urges young people to vote against rising 'extremes' in France

Real Madrid's new signing says France faces a "pivotal moment" but the youth vote could make a difference after recent European elections showed support for far-right politicians.

news.sky.com

 

[nicko31]

RN not surprisingly the largest party

Damage control is now to stop the far right getting on overall majority which is possible. Lots of candidates standing down next weekend.

Even if RN are stopped, expect years of Brexit style paralysis are likely to follow in government. What a mess, Macron has become their Cameron ...

 

[heathgate]

RN not surprisingly the largest party

Damage control is now to stop the far right getting on overall majority which is possible. Lots of candidates standing down next weekend.

Even if RN are stopped, expect years of Brexit style paralysis are likely to follow in government. What a mess, Macron has become their Cameron ...

Looking at it simply, the question across continental Europe should be asked,.. why are the various governments continuing to push the open border multiculturalism, when it is clear that it isn't working, and in the face of clear evidence that the growing opinion of the man on the street is to reject it.

 

[nicko31]

Looking at it simply, the question across continental Europe should be asked,.. why are the various governments continuing to push the open border multiculturalism, when it is clear that it isn't working, and in the face of clear evidence that the growing opinion of the man on the street is to reject it.

France doesn’t embrace multiculturalism, thankfully we do. For all Sunak’s political flaws only a few racists in Reform resent his colour

 

[heathgate]

France doesn’t embrace multiculturalism, thankfully we do. For all Sunak’s political flaws only a few racists in Reform resent his colour

Exactly,... we, on these islands, are a long way from the historical Alf Garnet attitudes of the past, but continental Europe is heading the wrong way.... there is wide resistance to the dilution of their strong traditional national identities, which they rightly cherish,... I can't see where these clashes of culture are going to lead, especially in France, but also wider in nations across the continent.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

France doesn’t embrace multiculturalism, thankfully we do. For all Sunak’s political flaws only a few racists in Reform resent his colour

It’s not his colour but he is a Hindu, which many Reform supporters etc don’t have a problem with. Islam is the enemy.

 

[Zeberdi]

Looking at it simply, the question across continental Europe should be asked,.. why are the various governments continuing to push the open border multiculturalism, when it is clear that it isn't working, and in the face of clear evidence that the growing opinion of the man on the street is to reject it.

They are not imo - Unless one‘s view is extremist and a far right one and that all Governments should ban all non-whites from immigrating into Europe and every one of colour should be “sent home”. Much of Europe’s centre right are as hardline on immigration as the far right, with the UK, since Brexit, arguably tougher than anyone.

Across the Continent and in the UK, economic policies have caused rising inflation (post Covid), unpopular austerity measures, a cost of living crisis (post-Covid/War in Ukraine), post-Brexit uncertainty in the rest of Europe and implementing unpopular costly Climate Change targets. Combine that with corruption, coalition governments forming pacts with the devil (far right parties) to stay in power and it is a recipe for anti-immigration sentiment to gain more importance than it deserves.

”Immigration” has become the populist scapegoat across Europe and traditional anti-immigration parties have gradually gained more power as mainstream parties lose popular support for economic failures. In the UK, subtle dog whistling by the Conservatives to far right populist ideology, has been solely to detract from the social and economic failures of the past 14 years that have had nothing to do with immigration. In actuality immigration is no more the “cause” of economic hardship and the cost of living crisis in the UK, than reducing immigration would be the panacea to end all ills. Globally, growing isolationist policies and nationalism could in the long term create even worse economic downturns nationally and potentially a global recession.

The rise of far right has also coincided with the collapse of support for traditional ‘nanny state’ left wing parties across Europe - people wanted protection from Europe but not at the expense of losing control.

In the UK, Starmer’s Labour will succeed because he offers a reasonable but not shocking, alternative to the status quo as well as an alternative to the traditional left or far left of centre and ironically, because we don’t have proportional representation.

 

[heathgate]

They are not imo - Unless one‘s view is extremist and a far right one and that all Governments should ban all non-whites from immigrating into Europe and every one of colour should be “sent home”. Much of Europe’s centre right are as hardline on immigration as the far right, with the UK, since Brexit, arguably tougher than anyone.

Across the Continent and in the UK, economic policies have caused rising inflation (post Covid), unpopular austerity measures, a cost of living crisis (post-Covid/War in Ukraine), post-Brexit uncertainty in the rest of Europe and implementing unpopular costly Climate Change targets. Combine that with corruption, coalition governments forming pacts with the devil (far right parties) to stay in power and it is a recipe for anti-immigration sentiment to gain more importance than it deserves.

”Immigration” has become the populist scapegoat across Europe and traditional anti-immigration parties have gradually gained more power as mainstream parties lose popular support for economic failures. In the UK, subtle dog whistling by the Conservatives to far right populist ideology, has been solely to detract from the social and economic failures of the past 14 years that have had nothing to do with immigration. In actuality immigration is no more the “cause” of economic hardship and the cost of living crisis in the UK, than reducing immigration would be the panacea to end all ills. Globally, growing isolationist policies and nationalism could in the long term create even worse economic downturns nationally and potentially a global recession.

The rise of far right has also coincided with the collapse of support for traditional ‘nanny state’ left wing parties across Europe - people wanted protection from Europe but not at the expense of losing control.

In the UK, Starmer’s Labour will succeed because he offers a reasonable but not shocking, alternative to the status quo as well as an alternative to the traditional left or far left of centre and ironically, because we don’t have proportional representation.

Good grief that's a lot of words, of course there are a myriad of more granular factors that contribute to the spreading dissatisfaction across the continent, but the EU itself, by dint of the fact that their own policies and laws restrict them from taking the right steps, are directly, almost without challenge, driving the man on the street to seek security of their traditions and cultures in the arms of political entities that are certainly right of centre.... they see that the left in particular have no solutions other than those that will exacerbate the current wave of discontent.

 

[Zeberdi]

Good grief that's a lot of words, of course there are a myriad of more granular factors that contribute to the spreading dissatisfaction across the continent, but the EU itself, by dint of the fact that their own policies and laws restrict them from taking the right steps, are directly, almost without challenge, driving the man on the street to seek security of their traditions and cultures in the arms of political entities that are certainly right of centre.... they see that the left in particular have no solutions other than those that will exacerbate the current wave of discontent.

That’s an anti- Europe argument I grant you but different from your original assertion that governments across Europe are ‘pushing open border multiculturalism ‘ which simply isn’t true - as I said, most coalition centre right governments in Europe and the UK Tory right in the UK have been singing from a very different song sheet than that.

Are you suggesting Starmer’s Labour is more anti-multiculturalism and tougher on immigration than the Tories because that certainly isn’t true nor is it an explanation for their predicted landslide success on 4th July.

 

[heathgate]

I believe yes, the last 25 years or so have seen passive centrist parties appease the largely left leaning so called liberal progressive agenda of open border multiculturalism.. underpinned by the EU and it's laws and policies.... this is what is driving the drift to the right on the continent.

My perspective in my last few posts is not relating to the UK,.. we are somewhat an outlying entity, our politics has rarely mirrored what is happening on the continent, as is going to be proved on Thursday.

 

[Peteinblack]

I believe yes, the last 25 years or so have seen passive centrist parties appease the largely left leaning so called liberal progressive agenda of open border multiculturalism.. underpinned by the EU and it's laws and policies.... this is what is driving the drift to the right on the continent.

My perspective in my last few posts is not relating to the UK,.. we are somewhat an outlying entity, our politics has rarely mirrored what is happening on the continent, as is going to be proved on Thursday.

I would argue the opposite - supposedly centrist governments have broadly accepted the 'neoliberal' agenda of prioritising the demands or perceived needs of big business and the wealthy, who threaten to move overseas if they are not given what they want; more tax cuts, privatisation, lucrative contracts to run public services, more 'labour market flexibility', less regulation or obligations, fewer social responsibilities, and weakened employment rights or protection.

The result is worsening employment and living conditions for ordinary people, more financial hardship and poverty, deteriorating public services, more unaffordable or unfit housing, etc.

People are then persuaded that all of these problems are caused by immigrants, or 'Woke', and so they embrace the Hard/Populist Right.

What they don't realise - and many Reform UK supporters illustrate this - is that the Hard Right enthusiastically supports the rampant free-market policies and subservience to corporate interests which have caused so many problems and hardships for ordinary people in the first place.

If a group of workers went on strike against an employer over pay or job cuts, who would Farage or Le Pen support?

The Hard Right exploit ordinary people's justified anger and frustrations about low wages, crap housing and crumbling public services, by encouraging them to blame immigrants, but beyond this, the rabble rousers of the Right will not seriously take the side of those people against bad employers or landlords. Farage, Le Pen, and Trump, are not really friends of the working-class; they view them as 'useful idiots' to be exploited for political gain, and prevent socialism, or even social democracy.